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If i counted correctly, the predictions here are

England (5)  Italy (9)

I'm one of the five, and think this one can go to extra time and perhaps penalties.

2-2? if penalties, why did i pick Joe Hart?  Enjoy.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Sun Jun 24th, 2012 at 01:50:29 PM EST
forgot to write why i believe it will go to extra time.

Because today's Giants ballgame with Matt (Perfect Game) Cain on the mound, and it's a day game in don't-call-it-Frisco, begins about 20 minutes into the second half Bremen time.

So of course it will go into extra time, and i'll miss the first 4 innings minimum.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Sun Jun 24th, 2012 at 01:55:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm another of the five, but at half time, England looks lost and Italy ever more confident when in front of the goal...

As for penalties, its not just Hart. Chelsea can do penalties but England can't. (And no it's not about luck.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Jun 24th, 2012 at 03:39:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What did I say?...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Jun 24th, 2012 at 05:46:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think Hart was too confident in his homework; all the italians had to do was remember where they normally hit the ball and then do something different. He dived the wrong way 4 times.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 25th, 2012 at 03:00:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Didn't he dive the right way, but too slow, during the first shot?

I read one article that gives all the credit for the Italian win to Pirlo: the author claimed that Pirlo's panenka shook the confidence of Young and Cole. Maybe, maybe not.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Jun 25th, 2012 at 05:08:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is possible that after Montolivo's missed shot, Pirlo was looking for a psychological tick. Ballzy.

An illustrative comparison of game activity:

arrows are passes (blue good, red not);
circle - ball defended;
cross - tackle (orange good, purple not);
green diamond - interception

And by the way (NGFW): Have you seen this?

by das monde on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 01:14:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You could have put the whole england team against Pirlo and it would have looked bad. He was head and shoulders the best player on the pitch

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 02:43:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm again amazed that the oldest players save the day for Italy. And the whole tournament, Italy played with unusual composture. Something to prove?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 02:45:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The NYT gives credit to the coach:
A Man on a Mission to Change Italy's Spirit - NYTimes.com

Prandelli's mission is profound. He took the Italian job two years ago, after the Azzurri had returned from a woeful World Cup failure in South Africa. The squad needed new direction, and Prandelli was determined to change its spirit and change its style, from negativity to as close to the Beautiful Game as Italy is capable of performing.

He isn't there yet. The Italy we are watching is tactically innovative, but it has rogues and misfits that the coach tries to re-educate in the few short weeks he spends with players while they are away from their clubs. Watching him handle Mario Balotelli, the brooding, explosive, potentially brilliant 21-year-old striker, is a sight to see in itself.

Seeing how Prandelli tries to reform Balotelli is one thing. Seeing him trust and try to draw out the essence of Antonio Cassano, who comes from the streets of southern Italy, is another.

Then there is the conversion of Daniele De Rossi, the Roma midfielder, whom Prandelli surprised by selecting him to defend against Spain.

The idea was that De Rossi should step out of a three-man back line, as Franz Beckenbauer did for Germany in the 1970s. The concept is to turn defense into attack as soon the moment presents itself.

It is an art that De Rossi himself did not know he possessed, one of the arts that Prandelli seeks during a tournament that will define his management for as long as he holds the post.



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 06:36:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Heh... and even that didn't work :-) And still better than racists.

Those graphs are great. What are the white or black triangles?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 02:43:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Fouls suffered (w) and committed (b); the symbol set must be the same as here.
by das monde on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 02:56:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Pirlo suffers fouls gladly

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 03:46:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I dunno, I remember looking at Young as he approached the penalty area and said to my parents "he's gonna miss". But I can't remember a single thing Young did right all match, he had a shocker.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 02:45:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In a morning show there was a short interview with Panenka, who told that he trained his signature for two years before applying it. I didn't think it's that difficult.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 02:47:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In this article he says it was two years indeed.
by das monde on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 02:58:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
England coach Roy Hogson still blames luck and doesn't get why practice didn't work:

Euro 2012: Ashley Cole and Ashley Young backed to recover from England's penalty shoot-out miss misery - Telegraph

"I think penalties is always down to luck. It is a lottery. It is just the way it goes in football. You can practise and practice as much as you want but when it comes to the occasion, the big stage, it is always difficult. I hate watching it.

At least he gets what's unrealistic in his practice:

Euro 2012: spot-kick obsession weighing England down, laments Roy Hodgson, after defeat to Italy - Telegraph

I'd been watching Ashley Young and Ashley Cole smashing in penalties in training but you can't reproduce the tired legs, pressure and nervous tension It has become an obsession for us in English football.

Well there is a lesson in Panenka's account of how he invented his signature move:

Panenka reflects on perfect penalty at EURO '76 - UEFA.com

After each training session I used to stay behind after a game with our goalkeeper and take penalties - we would play for a bar of chocolate or a glass of beer. Since he was a very good goalkeeper it became an expensive proposition for me. So, sometimes before going to sleep I tried to think of ways of getting the better of him, to recoup my losses.

I got the idea that if I delayed the kick and just lightly chipped it, a goalkeeper who dived to the corner of the goal could not jump back up into the air, and this became the basis of my philosophy. I started slowly to test it and apply it in practice. As a side effect I started to gain weight, because I was winning the bets. I started to use it in friendlies, in minor leagues, and eventually I perfected it so I used it in the main league as well. The culmination was when I used it at the European Championship.

IMHO the key part is right at the start: he practised penalties after each training session. When players are exhausted and just want to go home already.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 06:02:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Another element from das monde's article:

Antonin Panenka (Czechoslovakia v West Germany, 1976) - Great Goals Retold - FourFourTwo

I guess we were ahead of our time, really, because we brought in local fans to stand behind the goal making a loud noise while we were training with our penalties. It was never going to be like a real penalty shoot-out but at least it put us under a bit of pressure.


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 06:09:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Pirlo was great but honestly I thought it was mostly Buffon.

England did what it always does, IMO, and did enough to steal a win, but Buffon saved three sure-on goals during play, and then made good saves in the penalty phase.

I would give Buffon the man of the match award.

Hart looks like the best English goalie I've seen in quite some time. Which isn't saying much I guess.

by Upstate NY on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 10:30:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Agreed that Buffon was good during play (so was Hart though), but Buffon made only a single save in the penalty phase, and that of a crappy slow shot.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 01:36:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well it certainly won't be England 5-9 Italy.

What a match that would be.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Jun 24th, 2012 at 03:59:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Italy deserved to win, though.
by IM on Sun Jun 24th, 2012 at 06:13:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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