Easy: I am betting on Spain beating Portugal, but nobody has won two Eurocups in a row so Spain must lose the final, and I don't want to bet on Germany winning.

Plus, Italy is perfectly able to win both matches on penalties.

I've been so busy I haven't actually watched any games yet this time.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa