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Who knows what's next
And then you accuse me of being an economist who takes the easy way out predicting that the sea will calm when the storm passes when I am actually suggesting positive outcomes are still possible where powerful institutional interests have vested interests in more positive outcomes.
Surely it is you who is taking the easy way out?
I know figuring out how the crisis may play out is difficult and fraught with uncertainties, but are we all supposed to just throw up our hands up in despair?
I know economists in general have a lousy track record in prediction, and sociologists often don't even try to predict future societal changes. But isn't politics partly about trying to figure out how things might be improved in the future even within the context of the real world (and economic interests) we live in?
I fear your fatalism is self defeating and in danger of becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy if everyone else took on the same attitude! Index of Frank's Diaries
Did you hear the news from Spain today?
I have no power of influence and I'm sick and tired of those who do making bad decision and ruining our futures.
I have been both predicting what would happen (with some success) and enunciating alternatives that I thought would work but I knew would not be adopted.
So, sue me. If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
However you don't seem to have the same interest in analysing political processes and in how your policy proposals might come to be implemented (even if only in small part).
As you know, it is not sufficient for policy proposals to be self-evidently superior to current policies in order for them to be adopted. A process of education, persuasion, credibility building, coalition building, consensus changing/building has to be engaged in.
Why do crap economists get to be in influential positions of power? Partly it is because their theories don't challenge the current status quo or result in policy prescriptions which further the interests of their paymasters.
But you have often argued that current economic policies don't even serve the interests of the status quo in the way their progenitors think they do. So it may be that their progenitors are better at influencing/persuading/coalition building than other, more theoretically sound economists.
So shouldn't a really good all round economist - acting as a change agent - also be interested in the processes of persuasion/influencing that can result in better policies being actually adopted and implemented?
"Enunciating alternatives" is probably the (relatively) easy part. Actually getting better stuff implemented can be incredibly hard. I learnt the hard way, in business, that the best proposals/ideas rarely get adopted/implemented unless you've done a lot of groundwork with the decision makers beforehand and build up a track record of credibility and success. Brand building applies as much to schools of economic thought as it does to more mundane products or services.
At some time you have to stop decrying what is and start building what needs to be built for a better future. Being a prophet crying in the wilderness only gets you so far. Even Keynes had to start somewhere.
So I won't sue you. But I do have an annoying habit of challenging people to use their formidable abilities to better effect! It rarely endears me to them at the time. But some have gone on to do great things. Index of Frank's Diaries
I have no formidable abilities when it comes to political persuasion, and you know it. And I hope you're not referring to me when you speak of "a really good all round economist acting as a change agent" because I'm neither.
And you confuse "interest in analysing political processes" with "interest in participating in political processes" which, once analysed, I find repugnant, and in which, analyzing myself, I would be unlikely to succeed.
I do what I think I can do well and leave it to others to do what they hopefully will do better. And I have the annoying habit of not agreeing with people who think I have some sort of responsibility to do anything in particular with the abilities they think I have.
If enunciating alternatives is the easy part, I invite you to do it yourself. And since you're the better politician, to build the brands, coalitions, etc, necessary for a better future. If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
it's a fine line between trying to warn one's hapless fellow humans of dangers ahead and projecting one's own fears on to the future, even creating self-fulfilling prophecies.
orwell tried this, and now his prophetic warning has become a recipe book for tyrants everywhere.
conversely, project too much of one's innocent optimism on the future and you end up with shallow, blue-sky thinking that leads nowhere.
scylla and charybdis...
i think if one could fuse all the talents evinced on ET into one charismatic individual, you'd have a great global statesman/woman.
however, great ideas don't always rebound well on their ideators! :( The power of knowledge is in mortal combat with the knowledge of power. It really is that simple... That's the Edenic apple we are all munching on.
You seem to retreat into the ultimate unknowability of the future and your inability to do anything about the human condition whenever I try to game out how we might achieve better outcomes.
Which means that the outcome depends on (a) how rapidly people realize the conflict between their short-term interests and their medium-term interests, (b) how rapidly people can adjust their actions and tools in light of this realization and (c) whether the unsustainable current institutions prove weaker or stronger than the sustainable current institutions.
All of these are unknowable to outside observers - and perhaps even to inside actors - because they depend on unobservable subjective conditions.
As an example of this problem, we may observe that a war is not in Germany's or the Netherlands' interest. However, we may also observe that until this moment the austerity neurosis has not once been successfully cured, save by the circumstance of finding oneself on the receiving end for an extended period of time. And during that time, the logical propaganda ploy to pacify the German or Dutch public, given the internal logic of current narratives, is a dolchstosslegende about how the feckless Southerners skipped town before paying their tab, and how "we" must now tighten our belts to make up for it.
By the time the currently pro-austerity forces pull back from that brinkmanship, they may well find that they are already over the brink. Or they may not. It all depends on the subjective conditions in decisionmakers whose state and flexibility of mind I do not know. But so far, facts on the ground are not encouraging of the view that they are sane nor particularly farsighted or intelligent.
- Jake Austerity can only be implemented in the shadow of a concentration camp.
The other general point I would make is that policymaking is all about gaming out what policy measures are required to prevent certain undesirable outcomes and increase the probability of desirable outcomes. When you are a policymaker, you don't have the luxury of academic detachment. You are an actor in the system, and if you want to gain support for your proposals you have to be able to show how your proposals will make things better, at what cost, and for whom.
Clearly current policy makers haven't been making a good fist of this. However if we want to become more influential, or want polcymakers sympathetic to our approach to become more influential, we have to make a case that our policies would have better outcomes than current policies. It is not enough to say current policies have failed to meet their stated objectives or that they will - in some manner yet to be argued - inevitably lead to war. We have to show that there are better policies which can address the minimal requirements of all key players more effectively to the general incremental benefit of the common-weal than current policies. Index of Frank's Diaries
I appreciate the difficulty of making predictions or even gaming out possible outcomes of current policies. However if you ARE going to make predictions that current policies WILL lead to war then you have to be able to make out some logical case describing the mechanisms whereby current policies will lead to war between who and who, and with what outcomes. You can't say the future is unknowable and then make bold predictions about the inevitability of war all within the same comment thread.
If I have to place bets, I would have to say that I trust in the French nuclear deterrent to preclude a major European war. But I could easily see a coup d'etat in a Mediterranean or Balkan EU member with less than ten million inhabitants receiving more or less overt armed support from creditor nations. Or a Yugoslav wars style punitive expedition against an anti-austerity government that purges its police, press, civil service and/or central bank of far-right agitators.
Do I really think it will get that far? No, I think that the creditor countries will back down from their brinkmanship after the Greek default. But I acknowledge that (a) we are in a situation where it is not historically unprecedented for major powers to fail to back down prior to going over the brink, (b) I can see no plausible story about how they can back down, given the narratives they have cooked up for themselves and their clients, and (c) our political class has, throughout this crisis, consistently underwhelmed even my most pessimistic forecasts.
We have to show that there are better policies which can address the minimal requirements of all key players more effectively to the general incremental benefit of the common-weal than current policies.
That means that the dominant narratives will change. The historically default way for human society to change a dominant narrative that is so deeply locked in society's institutions involves lining people up against a wall and shooting them.
Of course, the historically default way for creditor states of obtaining compliance from debtor states involves parking a gunboat offshore from their capital. So you may argue that Europe has a good chance of not reverting to historical norms in this crisis. And you may even be right. But right now, both those stories are plausible.
In the peace process in N. Ireland negotiations were extremely protracted with all parties signalling publicly and privately the elements which were their "bottom line" minimally acceptable and utterly unacceptable elements. The mantra repeated by all was "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" to provide cover for participants engaging on proposals which would, in isolation, have been absolutely unacceptable to their constituents.
Lets not forget that most public utterances are part of an ongoing negotiating raindance designed to influence outcomes but only partially sacrosanct in the context of a "comprehensive" settlement containing elements both favourable and unfavourable from the point of each participant.
The key issue for structuring such a negotiation is "Are all the key players with a stake in ensuring a successful outcome represented around the table?" as there is no point in coming to an agreement which does not include all the key players who could sabotage the outcome. Thus all the earlier peace process talks which took place without IRA involvement were futile because the IRA laying down its arms was the only way peace could be achieved. There was little point in the SDLP agreeing something if they could not deliver the support of militant groups.
Part of my reason for some optimism is that almost all of the key players are represented, to some degree, in key EU fora. Some may not be negotiating very well, and others may be over playing their hands, but whilst these institutions remain in place there is always the possibility of slow, incremental process. Reality has a way of interrupting "business-as-usual".
So I don't really see the French nuclear deterrent being relevant to intra-EU conflicts unless the whole institutional infrastructure breaks down. I think we are all underestimating the resilience of the foundations of the EU which have served Europe rather well for 60 years. The architecture of the EU had some known structural flaws - and this is the reaons for much of the current crisis, but that does not mean that the other institutions of the EU cannot move - very slowly - to fix those flaws.
The processes of political and institutional change can be painfully slow and extremely frustrating for the participants - but do not necessarily include war, repression or firing squads on a large scale. The yearning for a benign dictator who can just make decisions and make things happen is not one that we should buy into. Dictatorships are, notoriously, even more inefficient that the "chaotic" democracies they seek to denigrate.
I have a visceral objection to "war is inevitable" narratives because they can become self fulfilling prophesies and betray so little understanding of the complexities and possibilities fro transformational change within peaceful mechanisms. Neither will I join the ranks of professional pessimists and cynics. Index of Frank's Diaries
There is already an established narrative of moral superiority centered on national/cultural/ethnic divisions. This narrative is popular with a sizeable segment of the population, is promoted by the press and is used by the politicians.
And you want to talk about "the politics of the possible". If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
What is next, everybody searching for free-masonic symbols?
I would have had nothing against using the Brandenburg Gate for the 100 Euro note or the Colosseum for the 5 Euro note, but either my fellow European citizens would have, or the politicians themselves projected their own hangups onto the populatin at large as an excuse.
Like all symbolic facts it's a silly thing if analysed rationally, but we're talking politics and symbolism matters. If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
"but either my fellow European citizens would have, or the politicians themselves projected their own hangups onto the populatin at large as an excuse."
Rather an excuse.
And you want to talk about "the politics of the possible".
Was there any less fear and loathing between N.I. Loyalists and Republicans? Or South African whites and black for that matter?
The petty chauvinist prejudices that have been stoked up over the Euro crisis are pretty trivial compared previous antagonisms and hatreds between Nazis and Jews, the Germans, French, Spanish and British etc. which led to centuries of wars.
I think we need to take a longer historical view on this. The present Euro crisis could come to be seen as little more than a blip on the radar screens of history if (and it is a big if) we can resolve the crisis before it gets a lot worse.
Just because our leaders and MSM have such petty agendas and limited vision doesn't mean we have to buy into their narratives prejudice and racial superiority, and neither should the presence of those petty narratives drive us to cynicism and despair. Index of Frank's Diaries
There's an order of magnitude or two to go before we reach "Russia in the '90s" level of disaster, let alone "African civil war." But we are some way past "blip on the radar."
In allowing Greece into the Euro and lending so excessively for so long, the EU took on some responsibility for these problems, but not all.
Ireland still has issues with a rapacious private medical industry and an appalling legal monopoly which allows the legal profession to charge outrages fees for antiquated services. We can't blame that on the EU. There never was a time when people weren't dying needlessly for lack of prompt medical care. It's a scandal, but not entirely a Euro scandal. You can't take an idealised welfare state as your baseline for countries which never had anything remotely approaching that. Index of Frank's Diaries
I'm using Russia in the '90s. Less than ten years of "shock therapy" killed on the order of 1 % of Russia's population (most respectable studies place the excess deaths attributable to deteriorating economic conditions around 1 million Russians). Greece, Estonia and Latvia have now had two full years of austerity.
Assuming that the Russian experience is reasonably representative (and there is no reason it shouldn't be), and assuming (conservatively) that for the first decade of austerity cumulative casualties is quadratic in time (people and communities take some variable time to exhaust their reserves before going tits-up), that gives a guesstimate of four in ten thousand. Greece, Estonia and Latvia have a combined population on the order of 20-25 million people. So, back-of-the-envelope math says somewhere on the order of ten thousand casualties. So far.
To place these numbers in context, a mortality of two in ten thousand per year on average is around three times the ordinary mortality from traffic accidents, either two or three orders of magnitude more than from terrorist attacks (depending on whether you count the WTC attacks in your average), and one and a half order of magnitude less than from heart and circulatory disease.
Greater fiscal integration, oversight, and harmonisation conducted by an EU Commission "Budget Office".
an unlimited investor and employer of last resort who is definitionally solvent and charged with ensuring full employment/capacity utilisation is so far outside the current universe of "serious" economic thinking that I can't see any of the major players currently embracing it
a "full and final" resolution of the crisis and not constitute just another of a series of concessions they are constantly being asked to make.
By contrast, there are forms of economic organization which cannot work, no matter how great the unanimity is among the relevant stakeholders that they should be made to work. Every Eurozone state can ratify a paper saying that every state should be a net exporter. But as long as the Euro floats against the yen and dollar, and so long as China retains its current development strategy, that is not going to happen in the real world.
The rules of addition and subtraction are not subject to political compromise.
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