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There is no treaty mechanism to eject Greece from the EMU. They could, of course, exit of their own volition, especially when that action would benefit core countries, but it remains their option. Neither is it clear how they could be forced out of the EU and SYRIZA has stated intentions to the contrary. As J. Edgar Hoover used to say: "The wish is father to the thought."

They could remain in both the EMU and the EU, default on debt generally or in a limited and specific manner; they could establish a New Drachma as their own Wörgl type currency for purely domestic use regardless of the actions of the ECB or the Commission; they could seize all assets that have been transferred under pressure and offer to compensate those claiming losses in New Drachma, which they could print for the purpose; and they could seek to seize all or parts of the wealth of Greek nationals held in Switzerland, Luxembourg, etc. The worst that likely would happen would be for others to sue Greece in appropriate fora, which could drag on for years while they were creating 'facts on the ground'.

Much of what is claimed that they would do is what other interested parties hope they will do; much of the rest is baseless scaremongering intended to frighten the Greek electorate into reelecting a coalition along the lines of those who got Greece into the crisis. Those governments and parties have amply demonstrated their willingness to hold Greece while the powerful from other nations repeatedly rape her.

Regardless of the elections, the situation will continue to deteriorate, given the course pursued by the Troika. But any recovery will be delayed until the Troika recommended policies are abandoned. Perhaps The Troika should build a money laundering machine through which they can run the money intended to make whole the feckless bankers who made loans they should have known could not be repaid. A good case can be made for most of those loans constituting fraudulent conveyance. But, in the end, there is no point in the Greek people formally agreeing to the doomed, destructive and stupid plans being foisted upon them by face saving European politicians serving incumbent financial interests.

By telling the creditors to go fuck themselves Greece would, in fact, be doing the citizens of rest of the EMU and EU a huge favor - all but those who hold the ownership of the unrepayable debts.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Jun 8th, 2012 at 01:53:32 PM EST
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