Euro 2012 predictions thread | 81 comments (81 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Seed comment/my prediction (none / 1)

Prediction feels more difficult than ever... and my success rate in predictions isn't that good anyway, but I'll try again:

A1: Russia
A2: Poland

(Poland because of the home advantage and enthusiasm, Russia not because of anything impressive recently but players being less tired)

B1: Germany
B2: Netherlands

(I estimate this to be the Group of Death. Prediction assumes that Germany's captain focuses on Özil & Müller instead of Klose & Gomez, and that Ronaldo is tired after the club season and not on best terms with teammates)

C1: Spain
C2: Italy

(Olić is injured so I expect Croatia to be even weaker, even a sub-par Italy should pull through)

D1: England
D2: France

(If England & France underperform as I expect them to, this group should be even more levelled out than Group B, but I still see the former as favourites.)

Q1: Russia
Q2: Germany
Q3: Spain
Q4: Italy

(Dammit, I think Italy is sub-par, but can win against England...)

S1: Spain
S2: Germany

F: Spain

Heh, I ended up predicting a re-run of the final and one of the semifinals from 2008...

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Thu Jun 7th, 2012 at 05:28:27 AM EST

Re: Seed comment/my prediction (none / 0)

As for the biggest unknown, for me that's Denmark. Their recent wins of significance were at home, and I don't recognise any of the players except for Rommedahl. Low expectations could help them to shock Europe another time.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Thu Jun 7th, 2012 at 05:38:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Prediction: (none / 1)

English tabloids will predict victory, and once England collapses the tabloids will blame it on having a team of spoiled professional players.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Jun 7th, 2012 at 06:21:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Prediction: (none / 0)

No, wrong, wrong, wrong.

We've been resigned to ignominious early departure for months. rubbish team, can't defend, can't create, can't score goals. Half our best players are injured and the new manager is playing a rigid, outdated 4-4-2 system which even a county league team would skip through.

The nearest thing to hope we've got is that we won't be taken seriously and can surprise people. The last time England surprised anyone at football we lost 1-0 to the USA in 1950.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Jun 7th, 2012 at 08:23:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Where is the contradiction? (none / 0)

Does "we" include English tabloids?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Thu Jun 7th, 2012 at 08:52:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Where is the contradiction? (none / 1)

I genuinely don't know, I don't see em, don't read 'em.

However, the telly, which responds to tabloid narratives, is distinctly downbeat, even if disturbingly england-centric.

The "big", ie not big at all, story now is about Rio Ferdinand whining about not being picked. The tabloids are trying to make it into an issue, but I get no sense anyone really cares. I think the story is that there's no story about england at all so the tabloids are having to run with a non-story.

But there's no sense in pubs or anywhere that England are gonna make a challenge. We'll all get behind 'em and I'm sure the streets will be pretty quiet during games, but there's no hum of expectation. Just interest in watching some good games (and a lot of bad ones)

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Jun 7th, 2012 at 09:55:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Where is the contradiction? (none / 1)

Ah Ferdinand... the narrative about how he's allegedly not picked because he's allegedly black?

The England team has always been a rich source of black humour, and there's good pickings this year. One hopes they get through to the knock-out stages, for the slapstick opportunities.

How about Looney Rooney, the boy wonder who never grew up? I remember his first big tournament, he wasn't old enough to tie his bootlaces, and knocked himself out in the opening minutes by falling over his feet. This time he's supended for the first two matches, having committed a nasty foul against a Montenegro player. Sorry, did I say Negro? A Monteafroyugoslav player.

Stand-up comedy is what the English do best.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Thu Jun 7th, 2012 at 10:22:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Where is the contradiction? (none / 1)

Did you really mean to say "black" humour?

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Thu Jun 7th, 2012 at 10:25:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Where is the contradiction? (4.00 / 3)

Close, but cigar.

Ferdinand wasn't picked cos he was crap for most of last season. He has been carrying an injury and looks in desperate need of rest.

That said, his brother. Anton, has been involved in a situation with John Terry where it was alleged (by a fan, not Anton) that Terry called him a "bl@ck c..t". This allegation is currently subject to a police investigation. Rio, a man who could extend his international career by swapping football for idiocy, has weighed in and declared he cannot imagine playing alongside Terry.

Which, given that Terry has had a pretty useful season, would, in other circumstnces, leave any manager with no choice but to leave him out. But the actual circumstances is that Rio has been crap and doesn't deserve to be picked. Especially if he's gonna whine all over the press about it. The one thing you don't need in a dressing room is a big baby.

He certainly wouldn't do that with his club manager, Alex ferguson. If he tried moaning to the press like that about being picked, Fergie would be round his house with a few Govan hardnuts who'd teach him the meaning of respect. Nice racehorse you got Rio, wanna sleep with his head ?

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Jun 7th, 2012 at 10:35:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Where is the contradiction? (4.00 / 2)

This, a computer prediction, is tuly delusional nd a classic example of GIGO

Guardian - England will meet Germany in semi-finals, claims stats guru

They might be riven with injuries, friendless with punters and without their best player for the first two matches but, according to the chair of the Royal Statistical Society's sports section, England fans should not be surprised if their team reaches the Euro 2012 semi‑finals - where they could be beaten by Germany. Again.
After running a million computer simulations of the tournament, Dr Ian McHale, a senior lecturer in statistics at Salford University, says the data suggests that England are the third best team at the championship - behind Spain and Germany - and that they will face Ireland in the quarter-finals before losing to Germany. France and Italy, meanwhile, are statistically unlikely to get out of the group stages.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Jun 7th, 2012 at 10:24:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I'll see your silly statistics... (4.00 / 3)

... and raise you a silly market-based valuation, based on the transfer price of players :

FT Alphaville » This one is for you, sports fans

Based on this analysis and the composition of the groups, the semi-finals will be two classics: Portugal versus Spain and Germany versus England. The final will Spain versus Germany.*

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Thu Jun 7th, 2012 at 10:55:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Ireland will win (none / 1)

They have the crappiest team ever - with the lowest valuation in the finals - and an octogenarian Italian manager who can't speak English. Therefore they have nothing to lose and everything to gain. They play honest unskilful football and have great fans.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Thu Jun 7th, 2012 at 05:46:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Seed comment/my prediction (none / 0)

Oh. Going out on a limb, top scorer: Arshavin.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Thu Jun 7th, 2012 at 12:43:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Seed comment/my prediction (none / 0)

While being knocked out in the quarter-finals?

That's a lot of goals in the group phase.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 7th, 2012 at 12:53:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Seed comment/my prediction (none / 0)

Semis, not quarterfinals (my prediction is for Russia to win the Q1 match against the Netherlands and lose the S1 match to Spain). But to be top scorer, being good in a single match is enough. David Villa was top scorer last time with a meagre 4, of which he scored three in a single match (incidentally, against Russia).

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Thu Jun 7th, 2012 at 01:12:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Euro 2012 predictions thread | 81 comments (81 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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