Guardian - England will meet Germany in semi-finals, claims stats guru

They might be riven with injuries, friendless with punters and without their best player for the first two matches but, according to the chair of the Royal Statistical Society's sports section, England fans should not be surprised if their team reaches the Euro 2012 semi‑finals - where they could be beaten by Germany. Again.

After running a million computer simulations of the tournament, Dr Ian McHale, a senior lecturer in statistics at Salford University, says the data suggests that England are the third best team at the championship - behind Spain and Germany - and that they will face Ireland in the quarter-finals before losing to Germany. France and Italy, meanwhile, are statistically unlikely to get out of the group stages.