Euro 2012 predictions thread | 81 comments (81 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Euro 2012 predictions thread (none / 0)

A1: Poland
A2: Czech Republic

I'm going to assume that the fact that pretty much none of the Russian lineup play in a foreign league means they're not up to standard.

B1: Netherlands
B2: Germany

Group B seems rather hard to call, but I drop Portugal.

C1: Spain
C2: Croatia

I'm assuming Croatia scores an upset against Italy. Sorry, Ireland.

D1: France
D2: Ukraine

Ukraine should qualify as a host nation, and France beat England.

For the knockout stages, qualifiers are bolded:

Q1: Poland - Germany
Q2: Netherlands - Czech Republic
Q3: Spain - Ukraine
Q4: France - Croatia

The quarterfinals seem clear-cut, but who knows. There could be an upset. The Germany-Poland game should be fun to read about in the respective nationalistic tabloids.

S1: Germany - Spain
S2: Netherlands - France

The first semifinal is best described by the recent jab from the national team coach to the political class: "winning the Eurocup won't solve Spain's problems". I'm predicting that Germany would have lost to Spain in the last 3 major tournaments (Euro 2008, FIFA 2010 and Euro 2012) which seems interesting in and of itself.

F: Spain - Netherlands

Has anyone won the Eurocup twice in a row? Anyway, Spain should win the Fair play award like last time.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 7th, 2012 at 09:24:43 AM EST

Re: Euro 2012 predictions thread (4.00 / 2)

I'm going to assume that the fact that pretty much none of the Russian lineup play in a foreign league means they're not up to standard.

IMHO it has more to do with the Russian league being awash with money, and improving in quality. In the last Champions League season, Russia's association ranking was 6th, right after France. Unlike last season, both teams participating in group stage advanced to the knockout phase, though they lost in its first round (on aggregate, not losing at home).

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Thu Jun 7th, 2012 at 12:28:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 predictions thread (none / 0)

Though, checking, for ther next Champions League season, Russia slps down one place in the association ranking as Portugal moved up three places.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Thu Jun 7th, 2012 at 12:35:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 predictions thread (none / 0)

So it's the worse Russian players that play abroad?

In any case, Spain's league was always awash with money and doing very well in international club competitions but, maybe coincidentally, the recent years of success have coincided with the first time players go abroad to other leagues when they're young and not at the end of their careers to retire.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 7th, 2012 at 12:41:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 predictions thread (4.00 / 2)

I think that Russia's defence is reasonably solid - the big question is whether Arshavin can overcome his lack of fitness in form for Zenit and display his top form. If not, then they are going to find it hard to score enough to win many games.

Still - and this feels like it applies to a lot of teams in the tournament - in this ultra-defensive age I think that between brave defenders and a good goalkeeper (Akinfeev seems to be back on form) they could well muddle through the group phase.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Thu Jun 7th, 2012 at 12:56:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 predictions thread (none / 0)

Well, no, Russia failed to muddle through. And what happened to the ultra-defensive age? The goal average is 2.7 per match – against 2.15, 2.55, 2.5 resp. 2.4 in the previous 16-team tournaments at this stage; in fact you have to go back to 1984 for a higher goal average at 2½ rounds through the group stage (3.0). What's more there has been no 0-0! This is unprecedented in the 16-team era, and 1988 was the last tournament without a 0-0 in the group stage.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 04:13:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 predictions thread (none / 0)

All true.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 10:08:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 predictions thread (none / 1)

My simple theory is that we are not out of the ultra-defensive age, but that most major national teams have had simultaneous difficulties putting together a good defense (be it due to player or trainer replacement).

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 02:36:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Euro 2012 predictions thread | 81 comments (81 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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