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Pure technical growth remains possible in a material steady state, but pure technical growth cannot deliver relentless growth quarter by quarter, since technological progress in technical efficiency proceeds in waves, so if relying on material expansion for growth is no longer an option, relying on growth to provide for ongoing full employment is no longer an option, and so the employment insurance program is a critical part of the model.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 11:06:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But "relentless growth quarter by quarter" is most demanded by the financial sector, largely for the purpose of self-aggrandizement. We should say 'FUCK THAT!' to the financial sector but are constrained by three problems:

  1. In our take the easy path approach we have given finance control of the state and must figure out how to get it back.

  2. We must figure how to get the real economy supplying jobs and the necessary goods and services with a financial sector about 10-20% the size of what we now have.

  3. We must build a consensus on how to accomplish these goals.

The biggest obstacle is 1, followed by 3. I believe there are several ways to accomplish 2, if we can just get the power to try and agree on an approach to try.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Jul 3rd, 2012 at 07:42:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I wonder to what extent (1) doesn't follow from the lack of (3) in much of the world ~ in the US, UK, Australia, Norway, Sweden and other sovereign economies, we have the means to engage in Depression finance, given that we retain the capacity to create money to accommodate public spending.

In the Eurozone, of course, the monetary system was built on a fantasy of a self-equilibrating private economy that would not require any extended public deficits in order to meet the requirements of an extended private sector imbalance of savings and investment in real productive capacity, and so the capacity to spend at the level of the Eurozone must be created, or else the Eurozone dismantled.

Which leads directly into (2): we must certainly establish an independence between productive participation in the economy and the production of new goods and service for sale in the economy. One approach to that independence is Employment Insurance, aka the Job Guarantee.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 02:29:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the capacity to spend at the level of the Eurozone must be created, or else the Eurozone dismantled

Or the European political economy replaced by a smoking crater.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 05:33:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That is not a sustainable outcome. The parliament of the street will not accept it for long.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 06:51:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course it is sustainable. Once it is a smoking crater it cannot be unsmoked. Just like a failed state cannot be unfailed.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 07:00:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The French experience from roughly 1780 to the battle of Waterloo would suggest otherwise.

As would the German experience from 1929 through 1945, and then again from 1945 through 1970.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 07:08:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Let's have the Franco-German experience of 1870 while we're at it.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 07:10:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Did that involved a failed state un-failing?

Arguably the US in the 1860s and '70s did involve a failed state. Then again, it arguably never un-failed.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 07:44:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Germany did not fail in 1870. If anything it failed in 1866 and that was a comparatively harmless affair. In France the napoleonic regime failed. But prior to that it lasted twenty years, the average of 19th century political regimes in France. France the country didn't fail; neither the society nor the state was much changed.

Since the war was confined to two countries and one year the european order or balance did not fail either, especially compared to the Napoleonic wars or the world wars.

by IM on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 11:18:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The French experience from roughly 1780 to the battle of Waterloo would suggest otherwise.

Were we to consider France from 1780 to 1789 to have been a 'failed state' then we would have to say most monarchies in history have been through multiple 'failed state' episodes from which they recovered. The French Monarchy from Louis XIV to 1789 required an astute and capable monarch to function well. Louis XVI was neither nor was he very interested in governing. This made the challenges presented by high food prices combined with high sovereign debt and a regressive and inadequate revenue system practically insoluble.

There had been previous periods of instability, such as The Fronde, from which the Monarchy had recovered, but the difference this time was that the lead for the opposition was taken not by nobles trying to increase their autonomy, though there was some of that, but by representatives of The Third Estate, by men with education and means, who came to understand that re-constituting the old monarchy was incompatible with their goals and they set about creating a new type of government.

The 'logic of the situation' led to appropriation of chruch lands - the prime third of all French arable land - which gave all who purchased assignats a vested interest in the new state. The counter-revolutionary, reactionary attacks on France by other monarchies fueled rampant nationalism and 'the nation in arms' which led to stunning victories and expansion of French territory and rampant triumphalism.

Far from being a 'failed state' the French Revolution, by 1792, had produced the most powerful state on the Continent and transformed the nature of what a state could be. This posed severe challenges for the other European states of the time.    

iV

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 12:14:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The French Monarchy from Louis XIV to 1789 required an astute and capable monarch to function well. Louis XVI was neither nor was he very interested in governing.

Like Louis XV?

But more importantly, was the french economy prior to 1789 failed? I don't think so. And as you pointed out, if the french state prior to 1789 was failing, then a lot of quite similar european states were failing.

I think we all concur that the french state of the revolution was very successful.That was JakeS point I think: France failing in 1780, quite unfailed in 1795.

by IM on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 12:19:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I would say that a state which is in such a condition as to provoke serious attempts at armed revolution (successful or not) would count as having failed in a basic function of statehood.

That this applies to at least one state somewhere in Europe for most of the period between the collapse of the Roman empire and the late interbellum is a commentary on the sad state of post-Roman Europe, not on the stringency of requirements for qualifying as a non-failed state.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 02:25:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The french economy had problems, but was not failed.

The french government on the other hand had severe problems and - lacking a fiat currency - was on its way to some form of bankrupcy as it was politically unable to tax those that had the money.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 02:47:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Louis XV lacked his father's consuming passion for directing the state and delegated more than he should have to ministers, but was an improvement on the Regency and, when he chose to focus, had acceptable capability. The problem was that there had been so little effective effort to strengthen and rationalize governance that much of the power that Louis had soaked out of the nobility was just allowed to dissipate instead of being consolidated for the benefit of the state. Louis XVI was a full order of magnitude less competent than his father, it seems to me. My point was that there are a great number of times in various kingdoms when the monarchy was threatened but very few times when successful revolutions occurred.

The French Republic harnessed political, social and military power on a scale that created a new norm. The only other kingdom in Europe to have gone through such a transformation was Great Britain, so Great Britain and France resumed their traditional roles as rivals on more equal terms that before the revolution, with Great Britain playing a largely defensive role, financing and supporting those increasingly fewer allies it could find on the continent.

The energies released by the French Revolution set France on the path of transition to a more industrial nation, but intermittently. Slowing that process was one result of the Congress of Vienna, though the intent may have been more to slow secularism and republicanism, especially from the point of view of Austria and Russia, but anything that slowed France from going through an agricultural commercial, and industrial revolution was a benefit to Great Britain.

But we have now 'progressed' to the point where we have recreated the kind of parasitic, unaccountable, rent seeking dominance by a small group in the financial sector that we previously saw in the clergy and nobility of the ancien régime in France or in pre-Civil War Stuart England. Even though the 18th Century was an 'empty world' and we are now in a quite 'full world' and facing ever rising prices for natural resources I think we could still harness a much greater efficiency by instituting economic and social organizations that mobilize the full potential of the whole population and serve to equalize both wealth distribution and leisure rather than, as at present, further concentrate wealth at the top.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 03:49:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"but was an improvement on the Regency"

I am a fan of the view that the regency was the happiest period in 18th century France.

"The French Republic harnessed political, social and military power on a scale that created a new norm."

I am still a fan of the Toqueville view that the revolution and napoleon just finished off the centralizing tendencies of the ancien regime.

by IM on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 03:54:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the revolution and napoleon just finished off the centralizing tendencies of the ancien regime

Yeah, because the French Republic hasn't been centralist at all. Oh, no.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 04:09:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I thinkn IM meant finished as in compleated, not as in ended.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!
by A swedish kind of death on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 04:17:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
finished off on the sense of completing it. That is the Toqueville thesis in the

L'Ancien Régime et la Révolution

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Old_Regime_and_the_Revolution

"It is one of the major early historical works on the French Revolution. In this book, de Tocqueville develops his main theory about the French revolution, the theory of continuity, in which he states that even though the French tried to disassociate themselves from the past and from the autocratic old regime, they eventually reverted to a powerful central government."

As I said a plausible thesis.

Could you for once think before firing?

by IM on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 04:17:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nah, it's more fun this way.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 04:47:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am a fan of the view that the regency was the happiest period in 18th century France.

Certainly it was for the nobility at court and the attendant courtesans and dandies, and the inflating of the Mississippi Bubble was accompanied by the usual euphoria.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 06:19:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Courtesans and dandies are people too, my friend.

I was more thinking of more peace, less gloire. At the death of the regent France was better off then at the death of Louis XIV.

by IM on Thu Jul 5th, 2012 at 02:14:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Also: new Orleans, a city still holding up the spirit of it's name patron! That alone is a pro regency argument.
by IM on Thu Jul 5th, 2012 at 02:16:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
ARGeezer:
the difference this time was that the lead for the opposition was taken not by nobles trying to increase their autonomy, though there was some of that, but by representatives of The Third Estate

Just to have things in the right order: first the nobles blocked tax reform and demanded that the Estates would meet, then the Third Estate couped the whole thing by declaring themselves the National Assembly. And the rest is history.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 02:45:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Indeed! The nobility defended the status quo. Then the Third Estate seized control, joined by some of the clergy and nobility, and the whole process moved leftwards over the next few years, often driven by popular demonstrations and events, until Thermador.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 06:02:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I would reckon that replacing the European political economy by a smoking crater is one approach to dismantling the Eurozone. Not the most materially efficient approach, of course.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 11:54:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, no, the Euro will outlivebury us all, as JC Juncker said. The European economy will be a smoking crater, but the Eurozone will endure.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 01:15:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, I was referring to real world reality as opposed to the folkviews of the very important people. The Eurozone may well survive for quite some time in the same sense that the Roman Empire survived for many centuries as the Holy Roman Empire.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 04:33:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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