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Nobody is denying that the bank guarantee, and particularly its extension to bondholders, was a mistake,and the only question is why that decision was taken. The Dail is in the procress of setting up an enquiry into this, although that is likely to be an exercise of the current Government parties seeking to blame the previous Government for everything that has happened since.

There were extensive consultations with the ECB at the time,and perhaps the truth of what transpired will soon come out. However what is indisputable is that the ECB subsequently insisted that the guarantee be extended even to banks such as Anglo Irish which were not covered by the Government guarantee, and that the ECB was vehemently opposed to any bondholders being burned - as repeatedly proposed by the Irish Government and opposition parties.

The threat the ECB used was to withdraw all liquidity support from the mainstream Irish banks which would have led to an immediate implosion of the Irish Banking system as they owed the ECB 100's of Billions at various stages. The fact that, even now, the ECB refuses to allow failed banks be liquidated and is applying a similar policy in Spain indicates that what the Irish Government did was fully in line with ECB policy both then and now.

Indeed the ECB has consistently insisted on a much broader bail-out of banks and their bondholders than ever advocated by any Irish Government, party, or indeed the IMF. So you can blame the Irish Government for caving in to ECB pressure in 2008 if you like - I certainly did. But the bigger issue is the lack of a rational bank regulation and resolution process within the single market as a whole, and for you to try to exonerate the ECB and the EU more generally for this lack of a Eurozone wide supervision, regulation, and resolution process is to me the bigger cop-out.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Mon Jul 16th, 2012 at 08:58:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
>So you can blame the Irish Government for caving in to ECB pressure in 2008 if you like<

Hold on. That is a legend, if a popular one. It backdates event from late 2010 to 2008.

In 2008 the famous guarantee was very much a surprise and a nasty surprise to the rest of europe.

by IM on Mon Jul 16th, 2012 at 09:48:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It was certainly a surprise to many citizens in Ireland as well - came out of the blue to most - but whether it was a surprise to, or in fact required by the ECB we will probably only find out if the enquiry digs out the documents and testimony of the period. The shock for many was that the supposedly safe banks of the poster child economy in Europe were in such trouble.

But I think we are losing sight of the bigger picture here: Even if the Irish Government acted totally alone and without reference to the ECB at the time, the ECB subsequently insisted on a far wider guarantee and protection of bondholders than the Irish Government wanted - and insists to this day, for instance, that the Anglo Irish promissory notes be paid in full - even though the bank is long since defunct.

If it was a mistake in 2008 for the Irish Government to guarantee 2 Banks - when few precedents and no EU supports existed - how much greater a mistake is it for the ECB to insist on even more comprehensive guarantees in 2012, with all the benefit of hindsight they now should have?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Mon Jul 16th, 2012 at 10:09:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"If it was a mistake in 2008 for the Irish Government to guarantee 2 Banks"

Isn't that a conflation, too?

As far as I understand all banks or all deposits were guaranteed.

This whole pillar bank concept didn't exist until much later.

by IM on Mon Jul 16th, 2012 at 12:38:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Best link I can find is: this RTÉ one.

All the main banks were covered, including Anglo.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Jul 16th, 2012 at 12:50:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
All Irish owned banks and all deposits up to €100k were covered, but the vast majority of deposits were with the Big two - Allied Irish Bank and Bank of Ireland. Anglo-Irish Bank had virtually no retail presence and the others were building societies - basically retail operations heavily exposed to the private housing market.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Mon Jul 16th, 2012 at 01:09:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"The guarantee also covers all money borrowed by Irish banks from other financial institutions and the statement from the Department of Finance says all deposits, bonds and debt will be covered by the State."
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Jul 16th, 2012 at 01:11:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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