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The odds of the economy turning before then around despite the worst efforts of the UK government are fairly good
Uh - no. They really aren't.
There is no growth base. Even if the ConDems throw money at infrastructure - which is not a bad idea - their ideology means they'll have to raise taxes to pay for the spending.
Retail is dying, manufacturing is hanging in there but not improving, and Cameron seems obsessed with dinky little know-nothing start-ups, when he could spending useful money on better broadband and giving non-dinky IT entrepreneurs access to better funding.
So to repeat - there is no growth base. Resource prices will continue to increase, with taxes. Benefits and the NHS will be cut.
None of these make for an improved feel-good factor going into 2015.
And that's before the remaining bankster price fixing stories hit the news, and Cameron is seen trying to apologise for them.
Well, that would seem to be a "quasi-external" boom, given the dominant influence of the EU economy as a whole in that.
So, what are the odds that the EU gets its act sometime in the next year, which would enable the start of a recovery in 2014 and an acceleration in 2015?
That would seem to be equal to the odds of a strong UK economy, if no domestic growth drivers are available ~ in part because they are not there, and in part because those that are there requires the opposite of a Tory policy to take advantage of.
I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
The problem is that they might break out the explosives.
Austerity can only be implemented in the shadow of a concentration camp.
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