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Eurointelligence Daily Briefing: On Spanish banks, the EU cannot agree on what they agreed
The eurogroup was utterly confused yesterday as to what kind of money the ESM plans to inject into the Spanish banking system; Jean-Claude Juncker and Olli Rehn deny that the Spanish government will have to guarantee a direct ESM equity injection; but other officials are talking about a first-loss tranche for the Spanish government (meaning the link between sovereign and banks will not be broken); Wolfgang Schauble says a common supervisory system will take a long time, and will be very complex; Spanish 10-year yields rose to over 7.1%, as investors conclude that there is no such thing as an agreement on direct ESM cash for Spanish banks; Eurogroup decides the outlines of the ESM loan to Spain; first tranche of €30bn to be disbursed this month; Troika will come every three months and assume full power over banking supervision; Spanish government must set up a bad bank; Eurogroup confirms 3% deficit target for 2014, and raises 2012 target to 6.4%; It forces Spain to increase tax, most likely VAT; An official document warns that even the looser targets may be hard to reach, and are subject to big risks; Klaus Regling is confirmed as head of the ESM, Yves Mersch at the ECB, and Juncker at the eurogroup; La Stampa says Italy has only a few weeks left to avoid a catastrophic crisis; Corriere says Mario Monti scored another victory at the eurogroup yesterday, as they reconfirmed the bond purchasing plan; Italian yields, however, still rose on the day; Italian president Giorgio Napolitano says a reform of the electoral law can no longer be postponed; A group of International economists expressed outrage at Hans-Werner Sinn's appeal against banking union; Politicians put pressure on constitutional court ahead of today's ESM hearing; France borrows short term at negative interest rates for the first time; Francois Hollande wants to lower labour cost in France; Mario Draghi hints that further rate cuts are possible; A Greek think tank, meanwhile, forecasts 6.9% contraction this year.


If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jul 10th, 2012 at 03:27:31 AM EST
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