Rmoney and Ryawn: Bain & Pain Inc. | 108 comments (108 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Rmoney and Ryawn: Bain & Pain Inc. (4.00 / 5)

From Politico, which has good contacts into the GOP:

In more than three dozen interviews with Republican strategists and campaign operatives -- old hands and rising next-generation conservatives alike -- the most common reactions to Ryan ranged from gnawing apprehension to hair-on-fire anger that Romney has practically ceded the election.
It is not that the public professions of excitement about the Ryan selection are totally insincere. It is that many of the most optimistic Republican operatives will privately acknowledge that their views are being shaped more by fingers-crossed hope than by a hard-headed appraisal of what's most likely to happen.
And the more pessimistic strategists don't even feign good cheer: They think the Ryan pick is a disaster for the GOP.

GOP has managed to impose their policies without having to talk about them. When people know what their policies are they first don't believe any pol would do that and then they get angry.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Aug 14th, 2012 at 01:50:55 PM EST

Re: Rmoney and Ryawn: Bain &amp; Pain Inc. (4.00 / 2)

Seems to me that this is all "50+1" theory a la Karl Rove.

The smart thing for a Republican with Romney's profile to do would be pick a VP candidate who has (for example) some attraction for the Latino vote. Gives him a chance to chip away at Obama's support.

But this choice seems rooted in the theory that it's all about the base... I guess we'll find out if the base is truly big enough... I suspect not because there are too many swing states where Ryan is a net nothing (not positive, not negative)...

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 06:18:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rmoney and Ryawn: (4.00 / 3)

I don't think it ever crossed Romney's mind to nominate a Latino; it wouldn't have helped with Latino voters after four years of GOP directed-hate; nominating a Latino wouldn't have helped Romneys problem with the Base.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 10:01:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rmoney and Ryawn: (4.00 / 2)

If Marco Rubio wasn't so ethically challenged, he might have helped Romney with the base, with Latinos and in Florida - the one swing state he absolutely has to win.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 11:05:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rmoney and Ryawn: (4.00 / 2)

And yet, being ethically challenged is what kept him on the list until just before the end.

It was just that there was an ethically challenged contender who was even more appealing to the radical reactionary wing of the Republican party, who need to be on board both for base turnout and for voter suppression.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Aug 16th, 2012 at 11:16:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rmoney and Ryawn: (4.00 / 3)

I don't think the Republicans see anything ethically challenged about Ryan. Has he cheated on his wife and fathered children out of wedlock? Is he a closet gay? Has been accused of a felony? If not, he's just fine by the base and by the party establishment

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Aug 17th, 2012 at 05:19:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rmoney and Ryawn: (4.00 / 4)

I didn't say "being seen as ethically challenge", I said "being ethically challenged". He is just now coming out of a mini-controversy about voting against the stimulus, writing five letters to two departments in support of gaining stimulus funds, and then after that saying on talk radio that he of course would never vote against a bill like that and then ask for the funding, and had not asked for any stimulus funding for his district.

I won't even attempt to paraphrase the excuse that he made, since word salad like that needs to be quoted verbatim. Its just hard to remember something that makes so little sense.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Aug 17th, 2012 at 11:53:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rmoney and Ryawn: (4.00 / 2)

No doubt he'll employ the "they're all doing it" defence...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Aug 17th, 2012 at 03:02:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rmoney and Ryawn: (4.00 / 5)

As near as I can understand it, he is retroactively not writing those letters, it was all his staff treating it as something routine and he had not realized it was tainted stimulus money he was asking for rather than normal government pork.

Really:

"After having these letters called to my attention I checked into them, and they were treated as constituent service requests in the same way matters involving Social Security or Veterans Affairs are handled. This is why I didn't recall the letters earlier," he continued. "But they should have been handled differently, and I take responsibility for that. Regardless, it's clear that the Obama stimulus did nothing to stimulate the economy, and now the President is asking to do it all over again."

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Aug 17th, 2012 at 03:59:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rmoney and Ryawn: (4.00 / 2)

He admits he is unable to lead any administration by that.

by Katrin on Sat Aug 18th, 2012 at 07:09:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Nah (4.00 / 6)

Don't you realise how hard it is to get good staff these days? Even Romney claimed tax exemptions in Utah whist claiming to be living in Massachusetts (for the purpose of running for Governor) because of a mistake by some underling.

It's always the little people's fault...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Aug 18th, 2012 at 07:34:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nah (4.00 / 3)

Sure. There is a danger in overdoing it, though. People will ask why R. attracts the stupids. Obviously whenever there is hiring to be done he hits on the idiots. The idiots then do the most stupid things and the boss doesn't notice until it is pointed out to him extra clearly. He really shouldn't run for an office. He will only attract the votes of the stupids.

by Katrin on Sat Aug 18th, 2012 at 09:45:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nah (none / 1)

I think the greater problem is one of a failure to take responsibility. As a manager you ARE responsible for the actions of your staff and I have no doubt Romney and Ryan new precisely what their staff were doing - it is just convenient for them to blame others for their own chicanery. President Truman had a sign on his desk: "The Buck stops here". It's time Romney Ryan stopped trying to pass their responsibilities onto others: If you sign a document - YOU are accountable for it.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Aug 18th, 2012 at 11:33:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nah (4.00 / 4)

But, he takes responsibility. He says so.

Surely nobody would say they are taking responsibility in a statement in which they are disclaiming responsibility?

Like I say somewhere else in this thread (inflated into a diary at some other sites), looking at the numbers of the current state of play, the Ryan pick is not about persuading swing voters, its about amping up the base vote for the Republicans and maintaining enthusiasm for Democratic voter suppression, so a Romney or Ryan defense has to be read in terms of giving a rationalization for supporters to hang onto, not about persuading the skeptical.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat Aug 18th, 2012 at 12:14:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Booman is good on this (none / 1)

http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2012/8/18/9360/57252

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Aug 18th, 2012 at 11:42:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rmoney and Ryawn: (4.00 / 4)

Romney's problem with the base is Romney.

So no - a token candidate would not have helped.

Ryan has helped with the baser parts of the base. But I still don't think there are enough of those to swing the swingier states.

Then again, considering the Rs are fielding two people with obvious psychological issues and they're only polling a few points down on Obama, anything could happen.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 11:06:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rmoney and Ryawn: (4.00 / 2)

This is indeed the oddest (scariest?) thing from an outsider point of view. There's little good about Romney and nothing good about Ryan but they seem to be making quite a close race of it...

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 12:03:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rmoney and Ryawn: (none / 1)

They're outraising Obama, have the corporate media on their side, and are up against an uppity nigger whose being blamed for the slow recovery of the economy which they deliberately engineered... Based on the economic fundamentals alone, they should actually be ahead.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 12:17:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rmoney and Ryawn: (none / 1)

have the corporate media on their side

citation needed. All those anonymous officials that get to praise Obama for Keeping Us Safe are hardly a sign of a hostile press.

Von überall könnte das Volk, Urbrut alles Undemokratischen, Zelle des Terrors, über die gewählten Hüter von Wachstum und Wohlstand® kommen. - flatter

by generic on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 12:42:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rmoney and Ryawn: (4.00 / 3)

The way that Romney gets away with flat out lies and gets it treated as equivalent to the Obama campaign telling truths about Romney that Republican don't want to hear ... that's a fairly compliant corporate media.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 03:18:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rmoney and Ryawn: (4.00 / 3)

I didn't say that they were hostile to Romney. As Colbert memorably explained, the corporate media employs mostly stenographers.
If the Republicans tell them Obama isn't tough enough on the Iran - Moon Nazi alliance they will print it. And if the Democrats insist that the President personally killed Osama with a harpoon suspended over a shark tank they'll print that too.

Von überall könnte das Volk, Urbrut alles Undemokratischen, Zelle des Terrors, über die gewählten Hüter von Wachstum und Wohlstand® kommen. - flatter

by generic on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 05:36:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rmoney and Ryawn: (4.00 / 7)

Which is a practice that most favors those willing to tell the most flagrant lies the most often. Picking between McCain and Obama on that front would take more in depth spelunking than I have time for, but in the present campaign, that clearly favors Romney.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 06:35:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rmoney and Ryawn: (none / 1)

... are up against an uppity ~~nigger~~ high-melanin challenged individual ...

please, please, before afew goes on an editing rampage.

I have a t-shirt with that on it. And whatever you do, DON'T BLINK!

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sat Aug 18th, 2012 at 07:39:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rmoney and Ryawn: (4.00 / 2)

Rules of Thumb:

Americans don't start paying attention to elections until September.
Summer is when the idea is to the frame what the election will be about and to define your opponent.
Summer is when a campaign builds their GOTV and grassroots door-pounding organizations.

After the conventions is when stuff gets real.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 12:33:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rmoney and Ryawn: (4.00 / 3)

At 8.3% unemployment, the Republicans ought to be leading.

So the Republicans made a close race of it in two steps: first, when they prevented employment generating follow-ups to the second round of stimulus from April of 2009, in both the Energy bill and the Jobs bill, setting up a winning position. Second, in picking a weak nominee from amongst an extremely weak field, allowing the incumbent that ought to be behind to hold onto a narrow lead.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat Aug 18th, 2012 at 12:17:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nate at fivethirtyeight ... (4.00 / 4)

... has looked at which swing states are "swing voter" states and which are "base turnout" swing states ~ that is, they are swing states despite having few persuadable voters, because the bases are roughly equal in size.

Swing Voters and Elastic States

Measured by his "voter elasticity" index, North Carolina, Virginia and Pennsylvania are "base turnout" swing states, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Wisconsin are "swing voter swing states", and Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada and Ohio are a roughly even balance of each.

Because of Romney's Latino problem, NM is not considered in play at the Presidential level, so taking it off the list, that set of swing states puts Obama at 191 and Romney at 191, each needing 79.

Lining those up in terms of the 538's model of the likelihood of a win of that state in November,
Obama:

201/270 MN: 91.2% +10 ~ balanced
217/270 MI: 89.0% +16 ~ balanced
237/270 PA: 86.2% +20 ~ base turnout
247/270 WI: 80.1% +10 ~ swing voter
253/270 NV: 78.2% +6 ~ balanced
257/270 NH: 73.5% +4 ~ swing voter
275/270 OH: 67.9% +18 ~ balanced
288/270 VA: 66.2% +13 ~ base turnout
294/270 IA: 63.6% +6 ~ swing voter
303/270 CO: 59.2% +9 ~ swing voter
332/270 FL: 53.9% +29 ~ balanced

Romney:
206/270 NC: 67.8% +15 ~ base turnout

Now, assume that Mitt Romney has given up on persuading persuadable voters and is doubling down on turning out the base, and put the swing voter swing state leaning toward Obama in the Obama column, and the major Latino Problem states in the same column, and run the count again.
WI: 80.1% +10 ~ swing voter
NH: 73.5% +4 ~ swing voter
NV: 78.2% +6 ~ balanced / Latino Problem
IA: 63.6% +6 ~ swing voter
CO: 59.2% +9 ~ swing voter / Latino Problem
... 226/270 all swing voter / Latino Problem: +35

236/270 MN: 91.2% +10 ~ balanced
252/270 MI: 89.0% +16 ~ balanced
272/270 PA: 86.2% +20 ~ base turnout
275/270 OH: 67.9% +18 ~ balanced
288/270 VA: 66.2% +13 ~ base turnout
332/270 FL: 53.9% +29 ~ balanced

Romney:
206/270 NC: 67.8% +15 ~ base turnout

Still doesn't look like a winning strategy, but OTOH Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia and Florida are all states where state governments dominated by Republicans are doing the best they can to suppress Democratic base voting.

So that looks like the strategy: base turnout by the Republicans, base voter suppression against the Democrats.

To make it work, you need the operatives of the voter suppression fight to be fully behind the campaign, and that is the second half of the point of the Ryan pick.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 01:39:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Rmoney and Ryawn: Bain & Pain Inc. | 108 comments (108 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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