James Hansen directs NASA's Goddard Institute. You've heard the name; he was one of the earliest, loudest voices calling for action on climate change. He's the man who told 350′s Bill McKibben that a completed Keystone XL pipeline was "game over" for the planet.

Today, in a study released by NASA, Hansen suggests that we're already way, way behind in the game.

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The analogy Hansen uses is of a die. Roll it and you have one-in-six odds of turning up any particular number. Unless the die is loaded, weighted to turn up a particular value more often. In any given year, in any given place, Hansen argues, rolling the climate die is more and more loaded -- you might turn up a cool year, but four-and-a-half out of six times, you're going to get a year that is far warmer than the baseline.