Ceebs, I shall be interested to read your views.

I find it difficult to estimate the potential Liberal Democrat seats after the next election, particularly given the uncertainty about the boundaries.

My best guess is that the Liberal Democrats will retain at least between 6-14 seats, which was the range of the number of constituencies the Liberal Party won in elections between 1945 and 1974. The current party is still significantly stronger and better organised than the Liberal Party was in the mid-twentieth century, so I may be underestimating its capacity to win seats in the next general election.

Trying to estimate precisely which seats may be retained, on present boundaries, will need some work but I have looked at Scotland.

Orkney and Shetland (a Liberal/Lib Dem seat continuously since 1950 and composed of two Scottish Parliament seats which went Lib Dem last year) is the safest Liberal Democrat seat. Alistair Carmichael, the Lib Dem Chief Whip (and government deputy chief whip) is well placed to be re-elected.

There would be a chance of Charles Kennedy retaining his seat (Ross, Skye and Lochaber), although probably no others could be held in mainland Scotland particularly if Ming Campbell retires.

In the longer term, a near-wipeout in the next election tells us little about their prospects after that. There will be a large number of electorates where they will be second (to Lab or Con, depending on region). And after a term of a Labour government with a large majority, they will probably flip a large number of Lib/Lab seats. And Labour's strategic interest will no doubt to have disaffected Lab voters going to Lib not Con.

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