I agree that the Liberal Democrat vote has declined in Orkney and Shetland, but not to the point that the seat is likely to be lost. The fairly even split between SNP, Conservative and Labour support, together with the difficulty of an Independent candidate gaining support in both Orkney and Shetland, leaves the Liberal Democrats well placed.

Nothing in politics is absolutely certain. The past is not necessarily a guide to the future, but I still predict that the Liberal Democrats will retain Orkney and Shetland at the next general election.