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well yea but no but yea.

I have no doubt that in the upper echelons of the City they have to put plans in place to deal with "no deal", ie default to WTO. But I think that they're already planning to skedaddle anyway; parasites have to feed and they've grown so fat over the years that they're not likely to appreciate the slim pickings soon to be on offer from tory-brexit. However, invoking the concerns of non-entities like Dorries and demonstrated serial failures like Lawson detracts from any argument rather than adding weight.

I still don't think "no deal" is what is going to happen. I think the government would fall if it tried. All along I have suspected that brexit must be attempted by the Tories alone and only the Tories can stop it. The more the 3 stooges make a mess of negotiations, the more the sensible wing (yes, there is one) of the party will take fright. How it will finally play out I don't know, maybe I'm hoping for a miracle. But I cannot believe that MPs will vote for such blatant self harm.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Oct 16th, 2017 at 02:57:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A reply I wrote to Oui at Booman seems apt in this context:
I have always expected another election once the outcome of the negotiations is known - so disastrous will they seem compared to the status quo. Ireland, for one, is unlikely to accept any deal involving a hard border the DUP position will make unavoidable.  

However the problem is that any such outcome is unlikely to be clear until the very last minute before March 2019 meaning that an extension of the A50 period would be required to facilitate further negotiations with any new government that emerges.  

As any such extension requires the unanimous approval of the Council, it is anyone's guess whether the EU will agree to this. Many will be so fed up with the whole process by that stage they will just want it to end to enable the EU to move on to more urgent business like Eurozone reform.

Given that Corbyn's politics is so out of sympathy with the increasingly rigtward leaning EU body politic, it is unlikely an agreement with the new government will be achievable even if an extension of the negotiating period is agreed.

Increasingly, a good outcome for anyone requires the equivalent of a political miracle, and I don't count a belief in Unicorns is indicative OF A GOOD OUTCOME.



Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 16th, 2017 at 03:20:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The above was written in something of a hurry in an internet cafe as my battery was running out, but you get the gist. There are headbangers on the EU side as well, and EU politics, in general is not moving in a good direction if it is a rational and mutually optimal solution you are looking for.

If you can't see the current UK Parliament approving any likely negotiation outcome - even if one is eventually agreed - the only possible outcomes are a hard "no deal" Brexit or a general election to elect a government that can agree a deal. If the new government is Corbyn led and without the DUP, at least a solution to the Irish border issue becomes possible, but I doubt most EU leaders (leading centre right and right wing governments) would cut him much slack on all other issues. They screwed Tsipras for less.

It gives me no pleasure to say this, and it is totally against Ireland's national interest, but I can see the UK and EU spiralling out of control in different antagonistic directions post a no deal Brexit creating problems which will take the best part of a generation to fix. The political dynamics are all wrong and what was fringe headbanger stuff a few years ago is become mainstream now.

I sincerely hope I am wrong, but I don't believe the Brexiteers have a clue how much fire they are playing with, and how difficult it will be to put Humpty Dumpty together again.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 16th, 2017 at 03:39:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
on that I can only agree

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Oct 16th, 2017 at 04:09:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Once you eliminate the politically impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable or insane, must be the truth." - Not Sherlock Holmes
by fjallstrom on Mon Oct 16th, 2017 at 05:17:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"I still don't think "no deal" is what is going to happen." - You damn well better be right on this for the sake of everyone in the UK. But, in any case, May will likely go down in history as the worst PM ever in terms of the consequences of what her government's policies and actions produced. And, unlike Thatcher, this is likely to be the judgement of most of the political spectrum. Talk about sacrificing substance for the sake of appearance!

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Oct 17th, 2017 at 04:19:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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