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A reply I wrote to Oui at Booman seems apt in this context:
I have always expected another election once the outcome of the negotiations is known - so disastrous will they seem compared to the status quo. Ireland, for one, is unlikely to accept any deal involving a hard border the DUP position will make unavoidable.  

However the problem is that any such outcome is unlikely to be clear until the very last minute before March 2019 meaning that an extension of the A50 period would be required to facilitate further negotiations with any new government that emerges.  

As any such extension requires the unanimous approval of the Council, it is anyone's guess whether the EU will agree to this. Many will be so fed up with the whole process by that stage they will just want it to end to enable the EU to move on to more urgent business like Eurozone reform.

Given that Corbyn's politics is so out of sympathy with the increasingly rigtward leaning EU body politic, it is unlikely an agreement with the new government will be achievable even if an extension of the negotiating period is agreed.

Increasingly, a good outcome for anyone requires the equivalent of a political miracle, and I don't count a belief in Unicorns is indicative OF A GOOD OUTCOME.



Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 16th, 2017 at 03:20:27 PM EST
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The above was written in something of a hurry in an internet cafe as my battery was running out, but you get the gist. There are headbangers on the EU side as well, and EU politics, in general is not moving in a good direction if it is a rational and mutually optimal solution you are looking for.

If you can't see the current UK Parliament approving any likely negotiation outcome - even if one is eventually agreed - the only possible outcomes are a hard "no deal" Brexit or a general election to elect a government that can agree a deal. If the new government is Corbyn led and without the DUP, at least a solution to the Irish border issue becomes possible, but I doubt most EU leaders (leading centre right and right wing governments) would cut him much slack on all other issues. They screwed Tsipras for less.

It gives me no pleasure to say this, and it is totally against Ireland's national interest, but I can see the UK and EU spiralling out of control in different antagonistic directions post a no deal Brexit creating problems which will take the best part of a generation to fix. The political dynamics are all wrong and what was fringe headbanger stuff a few years ago is become mainstream now.

I sincerely hope I am wrong, but I don't believe the Brexiteers have a clue how much fire they are playing with, and how difficult it will be to put Humpty Dumpty together again.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 16th, 2017 at 03:39:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
on that I can only agree

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Oct 16th, 2017 at 04:09:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Once you eliminate the politically impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable or insane, must be the truth." - Not Sherlock Holmes
by fjallstrom on Mon Oct 16th, 2017 at 05:17:16 PM EST
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