The European Tribune is a forum for thoughtful dialogue of European and international issues. You are invited to post comments and your own articles.
Please REGISTER to post.
While the Council may have been receptive to an A50 revocation up until now, it was unclear to me whether any such revocation would have to be accepted unanimously or by weighted majority. In the scenario I paint above, Corbyn only comes into power after the initial A50 notification period has elapsed, after which unanimous decisions are required.
The UK doesn't have a monopoly on headbangers. In my "most plausible scenario" it is actually Hungary (or some other state relatively less effected by Brexit and less than sympathetic to a Corbyn led UK) which finally pulls the plug even though the vast majority of EU27 members might have been agreeable to a revocation.
The overall point of my scenario is to illustrate that we are moving into complex situation with may moving parts, and that only one thing has to go wrong for a "no deal" Brexit to actually happen, because that is now the default position.
The incompetence of the UK side has been masking some pretty nationalistic and regressive political developments on the EU27 side which could become determinative in the final denouement.
We are now all hostages to fortune.
Index of Frank's Diaries
Before the referendum, the irrational level was sold to our less intelligent voters with the lie that everything that was bad was the fault of the EU.
Now that we're in the middle of the process, it's becoming obvious to softer leavers that the Tories are incompetent idiots.
The Tories have done an astonishingly good job of dramatising that incompetence. And as anyone who has read Bernays will tell you, dramatising a point makes it stick far more persuasively than rational argument.
So the softer leavers are drifting towards blaming the Tories for everything that's bad at the moment - including rising prices, the gig economy, debt, low pay, NHS provision, immigration, and so on.
The vote was supposed to fix all of this and it has - against all expectations - made it worse.
How could this happen? It's a mystery to many. But it's obvious someone is responsible, and it's not the Labour Party, "remoaners", or even the EU.
Other softer leavers are beginning to understand they were lied to. "It wasn't supposed to be like this", they sob.
So in addition to all of May's other problems, she's now having to deal with a slow but increasing wave of public rage which is gradually drifting away from blaming immigrants and towards blaming her and her party.
There's a hard core of thick racist nutcases in the UK who will never change their minds about the EU. But they're a minority. The majority is now swinging away from support for Brexit, and the further it swings, the less of a mandate May has, the harder she'll find it to hold the competing factions in her party together, and the more likely it is that a single weak challenge from an unexpected source will set the whole house of cardboard on fire and bring it crashing down.
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 21 8 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 16 6 comments
by Oui - Jan 7 14 comments
by gmoke - Jan 4 6 comments
by Oui - Jan 12 1 comment
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 3 41 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Dec 31 32 comments
by Oui - Dec 28 2 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 218 comments
by Oui - Jan 211 comment
by Oui - Jan 191 comment
by Oui - Jan 175 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 166 comments
by Oui - Jan 155 comments
by Oui - Jan 13
by Oui - Jan 121 comment
by Oui - Jan 76 comments
by Oui - Jan 714 comments
by Oui - Jan 51 comment
by gmoke - Jan 46 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 341 comments
by Oui - Jan 1
by Frank Schnittger - Dec 3132 comments
by Oui - Dec 303 comments
by Oui - Dec 282 comments
by Oui - Dec 271 comment