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I considered this scenario, and perhaps should have included a reference to it in my "most plausible" scenario above.

While the Council may have been receptive to an A50 revocation up until now, it was unclear to me whether any such revocation would have to be accepted unanimously or by weighted majority. In the scenario I paint above, Corbyn only comes into power after the initial A50 notification period has elapsed, after which unanimous decisions are required.

The UK doesn't have a monopoly on headbangers.  In my "most plausible scenario" it is actually Hungary (or some other state relatively less effected by Brexit and less than sympathetic to a Corbyn led UK) which finally pulls the plug even though the vast majority of EU27 members might have been agreeable to a revocation.

The overall point of my scenario is to illustrate that we are moving into complex situation with may moving parts, and that only one thing has to go wrong for a "no deal" Brexit to actually happen, because that is now the default position.

The incompetence of the UK side has been masking some pretty nationalistic and regressive political developments on the EU27 side which could become determinative in the final denouement.

We are now all hostages to fortune.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Oct 18th, 2017 at 10:59:47 AM EST
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