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You assume that it is possible for people to realise things are going badly close to the March 2019 date, and panic then. In fact, 18 months is not too long a time for business planning, and we're already past that point. If "No sufficient progress" remains the situation this December, businesses will start executing contingency plans for a no-deal brexit. BY the end of March the entire UK economy will be gearing for autarchy whatever the politicians say.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 18th, 2017 at 09:01:25 PM EST
It is typical for negotiations to ebb and flow in the early stages and not get really serious until some hard or soft deadline is approached. Many will remain convinced that the politicians will eventually reach a deal at the eleventh hours after a few all night negotiating sessions. The EU generally does.

Of course businesses cannot operate with such uncertainty and contingency plans are being implemented as we speak. This will result in the gradual slowdown of the UK economy putting added pressure on the UK negotiators, in particular.

Having been altogether too alarmist about the immediate economic consequences of a Leave referendum victory, I suspect economic forecasters are being overly cautious now. UK economic growth will hit a wall some time next year.

But we won't know for certain whether a Brexit deal will be agreed until much closer to March 2019 unless there is a total breakdown in negotiations before then. And then we won't know for certain whether it will be ratified by UK and EU parliaments until v. close to the deadline - leaving very little time, if any, for a renegotiation in the event of rejection before Brexit actually kicks in and makes all agreements subject to the unanimity rule.

That is why I think a no deal Brexit is quite likely.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Oct 18th, 2017 at 10:20:07 PM EST
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