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Plans have been made for BATNA. Here are representatives announce the default position is, the UK will simulate EU "existing levels of market access available to other WTO Members". How the EU will disgorge UK agricultural product from the common schedule remains to seen as UK negotiators are reluctant to commit to any numbers.

Joint letter from the EU and the UK Permanent Representatives to the WTO

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Oct 18th, 2017 at 01:29:34 AM EST
A BATNA has to be credible: "We will crater our economy, destroy our political careers and die on the guillotine" is not a credible alternative to a negotiated agreement.

Unless the UK are going for Nixon's Madman theory.

Which only works if you have a credible power to damage your opponent significantly.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Oct 18th, 2017 at 09:39:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Catalonia's BATNA is effectively mutually assured economic and reputational destruction with Spain, and I'm not sure the Brexiteers are saner than the Catalan separatists.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 18th, 2017 at 09:18:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Catalonian separatists currently effectively have no other option as the Madrid Government won't negotiate with them.

If the Madrid Government agreed to discuss Constitutional reforms - i.e. greater regional autonomy - it could at least explore dividing hard-line separatists from others who are merely disgruntled with some aspects of Madrid rule.

So far, the UK has effectively avoided disintegration by allowing limited devolution of powers to Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland. There are still tensions and disputes, but at least there is a process to reduce them.

The Rajoy government has shown almost no willingness to do the same in Spain  and attempts to form a constitutional reform committee of parliament smack of "too little, too late".

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Oct 18th, 2017 at 10:37:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Spain moves to suspend Catalonia's autonomy 19 Oct 2017
The announcement came on the day when EU leaders meet in Brussels for two days of high-level talks, where the Catalonia issue was not originally scheduled for discussion.
 ... It said Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, who is due in  Brussels on Thursday and Friday, has called an extraordinary Council of Ministers meeting for Saturday to approve the measures that will raise the Senate to "protect the general interest of the Spanish people, including the citizens of Catalonia, and restore constitutional order in the Autonomous Community".

I'm seeing no hint of Lincoln Brigades.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Oct 19th, 2017 at 06:57:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually,
an extraordinary Council of Ministers meeting for Saturday to approve the measures
Actually, to propose the measures for debate and approval by the Senate.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Oct 20th, 2017 at 09:27:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
News I read Saturday heralds a week-long schedule for quorum and vote on the mystery package. Ima presume that doesn't include unexpected or unauthorized leaks.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Oct 22nd, 2017 at 10:17:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The whole thing took less than 12h of debates in the Senate, committed and floor altogether.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 11:48:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But it did take place a week later.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 11:51:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Similarly, we intend  that  the  EU's  current  annual  and  final  bound  commitment  level  specified  for domestic  agricultural  support  be apportioned  between  the  future  EU  and  the  UK  on  the  basis  of  an objective methodology.

Unfortunately there is at present no agreement on what "an objective methodology" for apportioning quotas/supports would look like.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Oct 18th, 2017 at 10:43:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It appears that enough WTO members are not keen on allowing the EU27 and UK to divvy up the EU28 export quotas, so that this BATNA plan is dead in the water.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 18th, 2017 at 09:17:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Both parties will be required to resubmit schedules for WTO approval in any case. I think, that is yet another understated condition of "membership."

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Oct 19th, 2017 at 07:01:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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