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Let's not forget the MEPs and their "veto" power. Frank hasn't given the political groups any role in The Scenario.

73 seats vacated in BREXIT in 2019
Macron to deliver vision for EU democracy in Athens

The first stage concerns the election of some 50 MEPs from transnational lists, beginning with the 2019 elections.

Assuming that Brexit remains on schedule, the UK's 73 European lawmakers would be replaced by around 50, chosen not for their nationality but for their political programme and their party. The aim is to strengthen the European nature of the elections while respecting the European Parliament's principle of degressive proportionality, according to this memo sent by the French government to MEPs.


UK's vacated European parliament seats may go to EU-wide candidates

archived:
Apportionment of EP seats2. When will eurogreen post likely "degressive proportionality" distribution?
EP resolution RC-B8-0237/2017, the "olive branch"
EP plenary session: The government leaders of the EU 27 member states should postpone their assessment of Brexit on 20 October as "sufficient progress" has not been made (557 votes to 92, with 29 abstentions)

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Oct 18th, 2017 at 10:48:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The reason the European Parliament doesn't feature in my scenario is because getting a simple majority for a deal in the parliament should be easy compared to getting a weighted majority or unanimous agreement in the Council. If you can't get a simple majority in the parliament, any deal is probably a non-starter in the Council.

That said, I suspect Farage and co. have made many enemies in the Parliament, and a deal seen as favourable to the UK could have difficulty in passing. As of know the parliament seems to be acting as something of a ginger group seeking to stiffen the resolve of the Commission negotiating team.  Few members owe the UK or its representatives any favours...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 19th, 2017 at 03:55:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
557 against negotiating a "future relationship" with the UK at this time would be a super-majority.

Now, one may argue that the Clouncil is a liberty to ignore the EP. But that claim requires evidence in fact and law, would it not, in the face of political groups, provoked to undermine a "deeper union"?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Oct 19th, 2017 at 06:35:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Council isn't at liberty to ignore the EP because any Brexit deal has to be approved by the EP as well as the Council. There isn't a concept of a super majority in the EP, although an absolute majority (376 out of 751 members) is required for budgetary matters and a two thirds majority of those members present as well as an absolute majority is required to censure the Commission. The Commission Brexit negotiating team would have to make a complete mess of the negotiations not to be able to secure a majority in the Parliament.  Getting a weighted majority or unanimity on the Council is a much harder ask.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 20th, 2017 at 04:42:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What is the concept of a plenary session among MEPs, Frank?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Fri Oct 20th, 2017 at 05:05:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No different from a plenary session anywhere, as I understand it, i.e. all members are entitled to attend.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 20th, 2017 at 05:33:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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