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Poll predicts Pro-Catalonia parties will win most election votes
Pro-Catalonia independence parties will combine for the most votes in regional election in December but may fall just short of a majority needed to revive the secession campaign, a poll showed on Sunday.

According to the GAD3 survey of 1,233 people conducted between October 30th and November 3rd and published in La Vanguardia newspaper, pro-independence parties ERC, PDECat and CUP would take between 66 and 69 seats in the 135-seat parliament.

And what happens if pro-independence parties do win a Majority? Will Spain recognise that, or at least come to the table to negotiate greater autonomy?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Nov 5th, 2017 at 01:22:45 PM EST
They've explicitly threatened to suspend autonomy again until the "right" people win: http://www.catalannews.com/politics/item/re-application-of-article-155-threatened-in-case-of-pro-ind ependence-election-victory

They're also moving to ban pro-independence parties to ensure that outcome.

While we can hope it doesn't happen, it is not looking like Catalans will be allowed a free, fair, or meaningful vote.

by IdiotSavant on Mon Nov 6th, 2017 at 03:58:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re-application of Article 155 threatened in case of pro-independence election victory
Support for an independent Catalan state has soared since the October 1 referendum, according to a poll carried out by the Catalan Centre of Opinion Studies. People in favour now stand at 48.7% while those against at 46.3%. In June, a poll revealed that 41.1% were in favour of independence, and 49.4% were against.

Pro-independence parties would also win the elections again with Together for Yes winning 60 to 63 seats, and the far-left CUP winning between 8 and 9, the poll showed. 68 seats are needed to make a parliamentary majority.

Anti-independence parties would fail to win a majority in the elections if the poll proves to be correct. The unionist Ciutadans party would win 25 to 26 seats, the Socialists 17 to 19, with the People's Party coming in last with 10 to 11 seats.



Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Nov 6th, 2017 at 11:46:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There is no shortage of hardliners among the PP and Ciudadanos base, but I doubt the Spanish government would either apply Art 155 again or move to make the separatist parties illegal only on an adverse election result.

The separatist parties fully intend to continue defying the Spanish constitution, so it's possible there will be another round of escalation afer the election. For instance, if a regional government supporred by a separatist majority tries to start implementing the voided law on the legal transition and Foundational of the republic.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 12:29:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The most likely outcome is a repetition of the current majority of seats without a majority of separatist votes.

Note that the separatists don't want to come to the table to negotiate greater autonomy either. They have declared independence and are only interested in negotiating it's implementation. For this they have even violated the rules of procedure of the Catalan parliament.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 12:25:08 PM EST
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