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That's a peculiar example of Corbyn bashing.

It seems to be the NeoLiberal Party Line that Corbyn is worse than Brexit, but of course that's nonsense. Corbyn is a Euro-style social democrat suffering from mild nostalgia.

His economic plans are very similar to the policies of - say - Portugal, which was told very sternly to give up its socialist delusions, but whose economy is now doing much better than it ever did under far-right austerity.

Of course in the extremist US, socialism = communism = political bubonic plague and herpes, so anyone to the left of Hillary is "hard-left".

Corbyn knows what Brexit will do the UK, and I really can't see Labour following through with it with any enthusiasm, no matter how much of a Eurosceptic he may be personally. (Which probably isn't much. He has said that if given the choice he would vote Remain - again.)

The rest is spot on. If Brexit continues, the UK is basically fucked. (Which is why I'm trying to move to the mainland.)

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Nov 7th, 2017 at 10:14:45 PM EST
Yes, I recoiled from that NYT article over the Corbyn line. In fact, if you examine the whole article in the light of that wholly right wing persepctive, it ceases to provide useful information as you realise so many of its insights are fundamentally flawed, however amusing they seem to be.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 7th, 2017 at 10:33:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
US papers have become nothing but organs along the old lines of Pravda and Izvestia, and as the joke used to go, there is no truth in Pravda and no news in Izvestia.
by rifek on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 02:36:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Corbyn doesn't appear in Jonathan Lis' account of his discussions with Brussels officials at all, so either he is off the radar, viewed as not relevant at the moment (as he is not involved in the negotiations), or Jonathan didn't record that part of their conversation.

Steven Erlanger mentions Corbyn twice - once in a direct quote from Tomas Valasek, a former Slovak diplomat who lived in Britain for many years and now directs Carnegie Europe, a Brussels-based research institution. "After Brexit, no one is trying to help now. They've given up. Nobody on the Continent really cares that much about Britain anymore. Even worse, people feel the country will fall into the hands of Jeremy Corbyn and that will do more damage than Brexit itself."

Firstly Valasek runs a US funded foundation, and secondly he represented a former communist controlled eastern European state whose governments have all turned sharply to the right. Nostalgia for a socialist past doesn't seem to be their thing.

Erlanger's own dig at Corbyn "the old hard lefty Jeremy Corbyn is leading the opposition Labour Party back into an equally fantastical socialist past" didn't strike me as central to his narrative and was perhaps little more than a New York Times editor assuring his readership of his conservative bona fides and that his analysis of the UK's travails didn't arise from antipathy to a conservative government. After all, he speaks of approvingly of the 1980's - the Thatcher years - when "Britain mattered internationally".

I have no doubt that EU officials would welcome Corbyn coming into power, given Labour's recent statement supporting continued membership of the Single Market and Customs Union. Then all that would have to be negotiated is a political cooperation agreement governing aviation, medicines, security cooperation and  and radioactive materials.

No complex trade deal or transition arrangements to negotiate. No Irish border issue to untangle. Little would change except that the UK would have no say on the future development of the EU. Given the hard right turn in much of European politics, Corbyn's absence from the EU Council would not be missed by many. More's the pity. The UK could actually have made a positive contribution to the EU.


Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 12:29:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"I have no doubt that EU officials would welcome Corbyn coming into power"

I beg to differ.
Yes, they all know that it would be better for the relationship between the UK and the EU. Also that it would be better for the EU.

But almost all of them are economically firmly-right to far-right governments. Even Sweden has drifted much further to the right than where we typically expect them to be. I don't think that they would welcome having a successful left-wing government in such a visible country.
Indeed, the bones thrown to prop up May post Florence seemed to me a sign of EU governments wanting to support a fellow conservative.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 09:44:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Please note that I said "I have no doubt that EU Officials would welcome Corbyn coming into power".

Negotiators like to deal with an opponent who has a clear mandate and priorities for the negotiation. Also with Labour's policy switching to being in favour of remaining in Single Market and Customs Union, this removes a lot of complications from the Brexit negotiations.

Of course making the job easier for EU negotiators isn't the primary consideration for many EU national Governments. I did say that "Corbyn's absence from the EU Council would not be missed by many" which is probably an understatement in the case of many right wing governments.

But I do think we have to make a distinction between right wing national governments and the EU Officials charged with negotiating a Brexit agreement.

We also have to make a distinction between allowing the EU continued membership of the Single Market and Customs Union and allowing it to have a direct political role in the future development of the EU.  Right wing governments will be happy to concede the former, but not the latter with Corbyn in power. Another reason why retracting an A50 notification may not be as straightforward as some seem to believe.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 10:38:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh my you are right. What a glaring oversight on my part...

So, fully agree with you.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 10:43:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Corbyn doesn't figure in the Brussels account because it would b undiplomatic of the EU negotiators to facto him in explicitly.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 11:39:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes - I should have said that as well. EU officials tend to be quite punctilious about dealing only with elected governments of member states, thus no talks/recognition of Catalonia or Scotland. Barnier has met with some Remainer opposition politicians, but also offered to meet Farage when he protested. Governments are quite jealous of protecting their prerogative to be the only voice representing their country at official/diplomatic/political levels.  All else can be construed as "interfering in the internal affairs of a member state", something the Commission can only officially do if mandated by a Treaty.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 11:49:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You could probably most easily move to Ireland, I suppose?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 11:37:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The only people who refer to Ireland a "the mainland" are the Aran islanders...:-)

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 12:10:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If Erlanger weren't a thorough neolib/neocon whore,  he wouldn't be writing for the NYT.  Gods, even its sports and arts writeres are.
by rifek on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 02:31:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well New York is the Global capital of global capitalism in the world, so why wouldn't its establishment paper support global capitalism and rail against all who would question it - including Corbyn and the Brexiteers who still think that London is the global capital...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 02:43:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Munchau has lost his mind on Brexit.

The only surprise (for me) in the comments attributed to EU officials, is that they regard the A50 invocation as revocable, even up to the last minute. However if that is what you really want - to persuade the UK to revoke its A50 notification - then you have an incentive to make the Brexit negotiation process as nasty and unproductive as possible. Why make it easy for the UK to leave, if you really want them to stay?

Why is is this a surprise for anyone? Brexit is a disaster for the European project, the negotiations are lose-lose damage limitation, optimum outcome is the whole thing being dumped.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 10:52:27 AM EST
The whole thing being dumped, with the UK retaining it's opt-outs and the option to invoke Art 50 again is hardly the best outcome for the EU. The best outcome is the EEA as a transitional arrangement, followed by the Norway option.

Still, I think the EU should mostly worry about minimising damage to Ireland.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 11:36:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What PM is going to invoke A50 after this experience? What has the UK gained? Where are these incentives that people are so convinced exist? A50 will have ruined two or three PMs and done significant damage to political careers and the UK economy for no benefit whatsoever.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 01:14:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And all of which has been a wonderful gift to the cohesion of the EU. Who would have thought that the EU27 could appear far more united, competent, and effective than Her Majesty's Government? All those Daily Mail headlines about EU incompetence have back fired nicely.

That is not to say that the EU is united, competent and effective.  Only that the UK makes it appear so by comparison. In fact it would be a great pity if the EU didn't seize the moment to make some much needed reforms. No doubt they will fuck that up, but we can only hope...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 01:45:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
 to make some much needed reforms. No doubt they will fuck that up, but we can only hope...
What reforms, Frank? Seriously, what do you see them even remotely approaching doing that would help Europe?

Europe is marching to Macron's tune...

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 07:29:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is one "side show," if you will, among many to the most important question which you posed: What reforms? The European parliament constituted by 735 members constantly receives reforms and petitions from sundry constituencies and EU institutional characters.

Questions that then attenuate their deliberations are which reforms should or will advance by agreement of the political groups? Where and Why? It's at this point in the process usually that lobbyists inside and out make hay out of enjoining "special interests" de jure rather than promoting or "amplifying" majority interest in any alternative agenda.

Constituents scarcely perceive that every reform and NEW-TO-THE-WORLD political act drags with it enumerable (not innumerable, "systemic") empirical objectives and prerequisite operating conditions into scrutiny of legislators. These will absolutely determine measures of the success or failure of the act.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Nov 19th, 2017 at 08:02:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Haven't we debated this before?

What PM is going to invoke A50 after this experience?
Why should we expect that the Brexiteers will be chastised and silent for a generation? Or even five years?

What has the UK gained?
In which imaginary universe do the Tories care about the UK? (to paraphrase our friend Jake)

by Bernard on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 07:48:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They care about the UK that exists in their hearts and minds.  The one they read about in Kipliing and Churchill in their childhoods.  The UK that had ceased to exist by the time most of them were born, or at least were out of their nappies (which in the case of Boris hasn't happened yet).
by rifek on Fri Nov 10th, 2017 at 03:22:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If the UK manages to extricate itself from the rentier economy model it has pursued while an EU member, and adopt an industrial policy based on innovation and rising productivity growth, that could work.
Münchau has been hoping for this since the Brexit vote (before, he campaigned for Remain) it's taken him over a year to conclude that
The trouble is, I see no signs of that happening.
I think he still believes reversing Brexit would lead to violence. I suspect before he would have argued that the Norway option counted as reversing Brexit, politically. I guess by the time the second anniversary of the referendum comes around public debate in the EU will have shifted enough to make the EEA option acceptable. Maybe.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 11:46:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Paradoxically a lot depends on how the UK economy performs in the interim. The Brexiteer's strongest argument ATM is that the referendum didn't lead to the immediate melt-down predicted by "Project Fear". In their eyes that invalidates all arguments that Remainers might put up now.

However the UK economy has been losing momentum for quite some time now without actually going into recession. If it does go into recession prior to March 2019, that could change the political landscape considerably, enough to make EEA acceptable, though probably not enough to actually reverse Brexit.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 11:58:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In hindsight, it should have been obvious that economic damage would begin with the Art 50 letter and not with the referendum.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 12:15:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was with Krugman on this, arguing any turnabout would be slow and incremental, and given the strong momentum the UK economy then had, might well take quite some time to become obvious.

I think "Project Fear" was overly influenced by the "confidence fairy" theory of economics - that a downturn in certainty would result in a down in confidence with immediate market and real world economic consequences.

Yes Sterling did devalue radically, reflecting such a loss of confidence but paradoxically also making the UK economy more resilient in the short term.

My concern was always more about investment rather than consumer confidence - all those businesses putting investment decisions on hold pending greater clarity, all the strategic focus being on contingency plans for a hard Brexit rather than current investment opportunities.

By definition, those effects would be slow, incremental, long term, and largely invisible until large scale relocation decisions actually come into effect.

We're only beginning to see those effects now.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 12:59:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
May did make some noises about developing an industrial policy/strategy when she first became PM, but little has been heard of this since. Au Contraire all the signs are that the UK will double down on a rentier model, attracting hot money from dodgy regimes and Oligrachs all over the place, and engaging in regulatory arbitrage to keep the rich happy - a sort of Giant sized Jersey.

Speaking of which, has anyone heard anything about what will happen to jersey and it's extraordinarily privileged position post Brexit? Brexit seems like a good opportunity to wipe out some tax havens like Jersey, Isle of Man, Gibraltar etc. They make even Ireland look like a model of tax probity.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 12:09:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
UK staked a claim in "Future customs arrangements, a future partnership paper" that The Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories are not members of the EU Customs Union.
archived:Wed Aug 16th, 2017

Accordingly, Apple, for example, moved some its off-shore cash from Ireland to Jersey. This event came to light recently in disclosure of "Paradise Papers".
Apple used Jersey for new tax haven after Ireland crackdown, Paradise Papers reveal

UK finance market regulation has always been a joke. BREXIT portends greater difficulties for EU enforcement of its modest campaign to choke tax evasion and avoidance worldwide.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 04:03:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I see no way to avoid violence at this stage. The idea that appeasing xenophobes will satisfy them is immensely stupid. The choice is whether to wreck the place and break some heads a little later or not wreck the place and have to break some heads a bit earlier.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 01:11:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Personally I think most Brexiteers are paper tigers huffing in their dotage. Pathetic armchair generals yearning for empire for the most part with no relevance to a modern economy...  Sure there will be a hooligan element who take advantage of any conflict to have a riot, but UK securocrats are past master at turning political protest into criminal activity so as to deal with it more easily.

The problem is more immediately political.  The Conservative Party might well implode, and at the moment Conservative Party interests trump all others.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 01:51:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
EU officials might prefer this outcome, but would all of the European Council, especially if Corbyn were in power, or if May then talked about kick starting the whole process all over again. I'm with Munchau on this: Some members might want to extract a price for their support, such as the UK losing it's opt-outs or rebate - which I imagine no UK government could agree to.

The critical question would be whether the EU Council can agree to accept a withdrawal of an A50 notification by weighted majority or must it be by unanimous decision. Given that an A50 extension explicitly requires unanimous agreement of the Council, I think it's termination, would also so require. But I have found no authoritative legal source giving clarity on this.

I think a weighted majority would probably quickly and gladly accept a revocation of A50.  The question is would all 27? And without attaching onerous conditions? And if an old socialist like Corbyn was in power? Doubtful at best.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 12:48:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I hope the rebate is a gonner. Maybe not at the revocation, but I understand that it has to be confirmed at each budgetary cycle. Maybe that would be when it would be terminated.

Opt outs are something else. Maybe they could be kept. But the existence of the rebate is a scandal.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 02:24:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
To what extent are the non-politically engaged aware of the absolute shambles that is the UK negotiation team? It strikes me they might be more aware of the various sexual and harassment scandals effecting the Westminster elite, although these are not exclusively a problem for the Tories. Either way, it strikes me that the government is more likely to fall if another sex scandal hits senior ministers than if the Brexit talks fail. Thoughts?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 02:11:47 PM EST
If?

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 02:27:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Please share it with us. The European Tribune needs to break a big sex scandal story if we are ever to achieve any relevance in the UK!

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 02:40:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Be aware that Patel was probably in Israel to get help from the Mossad in keeping it a secret as Weinstein did.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 02:45:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't have private info. I have probabilities.

I am struggling to keep track with the UK Gov scandals, I think there are rather too many for a human brain to proceed.

And then I have to deal with the cognitive dissonance of maybe 90% of my colleagues insisting that only the Tory party have any clue how to govern.

Anyway, the question is which minister at present would not be sacked in any normal functioning government. And, incredibly, the answer might be Michael Gove. As horrible as he was in previous roles, he appears to have improved the Environment ministry (some say because he is so useless that the good quality civil servants are able to take over - even if that is the case that is better than anyone else).

Yes, I know, Hammond is not as insane as some others, but in a normal functioning government, the ability for the PM to tolerate being in the same room as you has to be part of the job description.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 05:12:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Corbyn worse than Brexit?
This is counter-revolutionary running-dog propaganda, comrades!
Corbyn is an open threat to their neo-liberal wet dream of national death by a 1000 austerity cuts.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 06:31:32 PM EST
Don;t forget that from a New York Times/global capital perspective, Brexit is an unfortunate setback whereas Corbyn represents the threat of a return to SOCIALISM which cannot be allowed to succeed...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 10:24:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The UK's happiness levels have hit a high despite Brexit and terrorist attacks - QZ

The UK has reported its highest levels of happiness since 2011, according to data released by the Office for National Statistics.

The well-being figures are the first to be based on a full year of data since the European Union referendum, during which the country has experienced high levels of political turmoil, including a snap election, a subsequent hung parliament, and the beginning of tense negotiations with Brussels.

Britain has also been hit by multiple terrorist attacks, beginning with the Westminster Bridge attack in London on March 22. Two months later on May 22, 22 people were killed and more than 500 injured in the Manchester Arena bombing, which became the deadliest attack on UK soil since 2005.

However, people have remained upbeat in spite of this, scoring (out of 10) 7.5 for happiness, 7.7 for life satisfaction, and 7.9 reported that they feel what they do in life is "worthwhile". There was also no significant change in reported levels of anxiety, which scored 2.9 out of 10.

by Bjinse on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 07:49:36 PM EST
As usual, the Scots seem to be the sane ones
Interestingly, the improvements in happiness, life satisfaction, and worthwhileness were driven by England, with no changes in reported personal well-being in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 08:23:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Employment is at an all time high, unemployment low, interest rates low, disposable income is beginning to struggle with higher inflation but it hasn't really bitten yet. Brexit is so much background noise without real effects for most people (if you aren't an immigrant) and Tory sex scandals are a reassuring return to normality...what's not to like? Who are United playing on Saturday anyway...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 10:30:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As some philosopher said: "If you're happy you don't think."

I know, cheap.

Schengen is toast!

by epochepoque on Wed Nov 8th, 2017 at 11:51:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Only fools are happy" is how my father put it.  

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Nov 9th, 2017 at 06:43:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I have existential angst, therefore I know that I am...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Nov 9th, 2017 at 12:09:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Aristotle made a reasoned argument why no thinking person could truly be happy. I don't know if that constituted existential angst - probably. As the Preacher said: "There is nothing new under the Sun."

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Nov 9th, 2017 at 04:12:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Euro-angst is a thing, it's the euro part of neurosis.
The only known antidote is copious doses of football taken daily.
Betting on anything that breathes also brings palliative relief.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2017 at 05:13:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think people in Italy will approve of your antidote right now.....
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Fri Nov 17th, 2017 at 05:45:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Haha, they are saying on the radio that there will be a baby boom in Italy 9 months after the next world cup!
The government has been on a futile mission to increase native population, bet they never thought of this way of doing it.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sat Nov 18th, 2017 at 12:10:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Following a weekend of reporting mayhem, pitting the DUP either against or for a "hard border", in the Irish press over a "Brussel's internal memo" publicized by The Sun comes a vote in UK Parliament on the withdrawal bill, or more dissembling.

UK MPs to get vote on final withdrawal deal, Brexit to go ahead regardless of outcome

Davis confirmed that if parliament votes down the withdrawal bill, Britain would leave the European Union with no Brexit deal at all.

And he said there would be no withdrawal agreement bill, or vote, if London cannot strike a deal with Brussels.

"If we don't have a withdrawal agreement we can't have a withdrawal agreement bill, full stop."

archived:
"EU's workgroup will need all of 2018 and an army to comb out the nits in it. " Sep 2017

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Tue Nov 14th, 2017 at 03:04:00 PM EST
In the end, isn't it up to parliament what parliament votes on?
by fjallstrom on Tue Nov 14th, 2017 at 04:46:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I could only locate one English-language report about the May-Löfven meeting 16 Nov that deviated from 10 Downing's topical agenda on defense co-operation between them, no mention of EEA endorsement. Löfven delivered the message:
"Britain needs to clarify what they mean with the financial responsibility," the summit host, Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven, told reporters in the city of Goteborg. "We all hope that we can decide on the next phase but we still have some way to go."

Have you any local insight to intervention in or sympathy for May's predicament?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Nov 19th, 2017 at 08:58:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
According to different people, Davis statement has many differing interpretations. Many of which suggest Davis was trying to pull a fast one and fool Parliament. However, he really isn't that bright and will probably get his legs pulled off for insulting other MPs.

As I've sadi before, it's a mess and now, half past too late, even the brexiteers are beginning to realise they're in over their heads. Hence the increasing sounds of "No Deal", which has the satisfying smack of voluntarily "taking back control", even if all you're actually doing is pulling the lever on the guillotine before the executioner.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 14th, 2017 at 05:38:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Irish Times
The Taoiseach pointed to the fact that the Isle of Man, a crown dependency, was not in the United Kingdom or European Union but abides by many EU rules.
How does this work? Are they somehow relying on the UK's EU membership? Will this come to an end with Brexit?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Nov 14th, 2017 at 03:18:25 PM EST
I've been asking the same questions about Jersey etc. which has a remarkably favourable relationship with the EU. A lot of "loose ends" will need to be tidied up and don't even appear in mainstream Brexit discourse at the moment.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Nov 14th, 2017 at 04:35:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wikipedia on Jersey: "The European Commission have confirmed in a written reply to the European Parliament in 2003[18] that Jersey is within the Union as a European Territory for whose external relationships the UK is responsible. Jersey is not fully part of the European Union but has a special relationship with it, notably being treated as within the European Community for the purposes of free trade in goods.[19]"

So in practice, UK's little islands that are officially outside UK are treated as if they were inside UK.

by fjallstrom on Tue Nov 14th, 2017 at 04:51:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wikipedia says "Trade takes place mostly with the United Kingdom. The island is in customs union with the UK".

Also relevant: "Offshore banking, manufacturing, and tourism form key sectors of the economy.[60] Agriculture and fishing, once the mainstays of the economy, now make declining contributions to the island's Gross Domestic Product."

So in practice, yes I think they are relying on UK's EU membership.

by fjallstrom on Tue Nov 14th, 2017 at 04:41:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, any jurisdiction can "abide by". This can be entirely voluntary.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Tue Nov 14th, 2017 at 04:41:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is important to realise that the City of London, the Channel Is and the Isle of Man, although nominally part of the British Isles and subject to the Crown, are in fact legally "offshore entities" answerable to no authority whatoever.

It probably arose from sloppy law making back in the mists of time which probably would have been sorted out during the Victorian period if it wasn't that, even then, certain people found it convenient to move large sums of money around without it ever coming under the jurisdiction of a taxing authority.

The dirtier business of the Empire would have been impossible without it and the intrigues both before and after WWII ensured the survival of these Medieval arrangements.

It will only end when the world loses patience with this piratical island off Europe and decides to slap large tarriffs on any financial arrangement that involves them. Till then we're gonna hoover up all your dirty cocaine profits and think ourselves very clever

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 14th, 2017 at 05:45:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
UK tax shelters in the Channel and the Caribbean and Hong Kong are like "beachheads" for the City's finance league and their international clients. Laundering is their principal business. There are a few thousand owner/occupants containing UK nationals between them, 10x as many "domiciled" post boxes and LLCs, and say, four inns and commercial office "parks".  "Crown Dependency" and "overseas territory" status provides businesses certain protection of UK courts and customs jurisdiction in the unlikely event of customer complaints. Not all of these are filthy rich.

I for instance never knew the name of my landlord, located at a box on Isle of Man. I met a squiggly line on the lease documents and the property manager who also collected the rent electronically.

There's the case of a UID at calculatedrisk, dual Canada/US citizen (married to a US naturalized Chinese) currently working and residing in California who let slip (on separate occasions)delight in managing banking accounts through their parents in UK, Jersey, and Hong Kong. The tax and FX arbitrage opportunities are mind boggling.

Then there are the millions of anonymous Brit pensioners frittering away the former pound currency edge from Cyprus, Malta, and Gibraltar, too. Their savings must be protected.

That's why HRM minions will play the pirate at the EU's shores for decades to come whether or not ah legitimate brokers lose their "passports."

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Tue Nov 14th, 2017 at 06:57:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My father had an account in Jersey for the simple reason that nonresidents cannot open accounts in the UK for fear that they might be terrorists. Jersey on the other hand, has no objection to terrorists or anyone else as long as they have enough money (if they are suicide terrorists, even better. Their heirs won't be able to get the money out of Jersey without getting a probate of the will from a Jersey court, using a Jersey lawyer)
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Nov 14th, 2017 at 07:21:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Frankfurt, Paris `to get most Goldman Brexit jobs'
"But even with the changes, Goldman is expected to keep a large presence in Britain after Brexit."

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Nov 16th, 2017 at 05:13:54 AM EST
As I've said many times, most of the impact of Brexit - even a hard cliff edge Brexit - will be slow, incremental and long term. It's like turning a large ocean tanker around. London has been the financial services centre driving much of European private sector growth - or at least facilitating it. Gradually that will change.  But once it changes, it will also be almost impossible to reverse. The UK built a financial services empire in the aftermath of its loss of the real one. Now that too will slowly disintegrate.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Nov 16th, 2017 at 12:20:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Somebody will have to administer all those UK offshore tax havens, until such point that the EU decides to close it down for self-protection.

GS offices in Frankfurt (and Berlin) exist to ensure that doesn't happen for some time

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Nov 16th, 2017 at 04:17:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm presuming that one of the pluses of Brexit, from an EU Officialdom point of view, is that the UK will take Jersey and the Isle of man et al out with them. The EU will still have its tax dodges and havens, of course, but they will be "our" tax havens...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Nov 16th, 2017 at 06:12:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well yes, but at least Luxembourg, Ireland and Netherlands are actually within legislative reach of Brussels, even if the wil to do so doesn't yet exist.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Nov 16th, 2017 at 08:18:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One of the new Rutte III government's more unexpected proposals was to lower to zero (IOW scrap) the Dutch dividend tax for businesses - to create the same situation in England. Because this would mean a loss of 1.4 billion euros in revenues, Rutter III has also proposed to increase VAT tariff from 6 to 9 percent to help plug the gap. So everyone here will pay up for a handout to multinationals. This is what you get when Rutte is unshackled from a left(ish) opposition party...

Over the course of the past weeks, opposition parties began to dig into this. Turns out this proposal was only put forward during the long-lasting negotiations by Rutte himself - and after Dutch multinationals (Unilever and Shell in particular) lobbied him to scrap the dividend tax. Their argument: Brexit, and a veiled threat to move head-offices across the North Sea, to London. I simply don't get the logic of their argument, how moving towards a country with hard cliff Brexit would benefit them.

But point is, that it could be a sign that under Rutte III, the will to start a new race to the bottom might just be there.

by Bjinse on Fri Nov 17th, 2017 at 10:55:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A VAT seems to me to be the last thing to add in order to stimulate the economy. The only thing worse would be to increase financialization by the same percentage. Finance can increase costs even where a VAT cannot be levied.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Nov 18th, 2017 at 02:22:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The boss of Goldman Sachs just called for a second Brexit referendum

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Nov 16th, 2017 at 04:38:53 PM EST
Surely the titans of global commerce can do better than wring their hands and whinge? Oh I forgot. They'll just move their tax scams elsewhere... Better sell that Kensington Pad before the property crash...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Nov 16th, 2017 at 06:15:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
UK never 'got' - at any level - the EU was a political project as much, if not more, as an economic project.

Thus:  

Brexit: EU gives May two weeks to act on divorce bill and Ireland

Some Tory MPs believe the UK should flex its muscles and walk away from the talks unless the EU is more accommodating, arguing the EU has as much to lose as the UK from not agreeing a trade deal.

Ireland had best get cracking on how they are going to operate under a Brexit No Deal.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Nov 17th, 2017 at 07:14:02 PM EST
Boris:"Of the 52 countries I have visited as foreign secretary, Ireland is more closely tied to Britain by kinship and history than just about any other."

or Ireland:Britain as Algeria:France

Evidently, Simon Coveney, lackey, agrees.

Mr Coveney and Mr Johnson differed too on the duration of the transitional arrangements around Brexit; the Irish side believe the ["]UK["] needs a period of up to five years after quitting the EU in March 2019, the UK side believes it should be two.

I predict, he will not be invited to sit at the cashier's windoq to count out the coins, 2019 or 2024[!]

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Nov 17th, 2017 at 10:17:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Boris is the UK's Trump, an embarrassing albatross worn around our neck as a sign of our fallen status.

As in this instance, he says things of no obvious consequence simply because they flatter his audience who, he presumes, will applaud him and laugh at his jokes.

In foreign countries, anybody who publicly agrees with him is either has a financial interest in doing so or is too stupid to see the con.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Nov 18th, 2017 at 08:16:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I came across this wtf in Local France. Would you explain 'van service'?
"We also spend less in euros: because my pension is paid in sterling, it now makes sense to pay a shopping van service to bring over groceries from the UK."


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sat Nov 18th, 2017 at 03:41:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't worry. After the UK gets its great trade deal with the UK, and starts importing chlorine-washed hormone-fed chicken, they won't be allowed to bring these groceries into France anyway.
Lorna Cooke, a retiree who lives with her husband in Morbihan in Brittany says that they were aware that their lifestlye would be subject to exchange rate fluctuation when they bought their house in France in 1996.
Is "fluctuation" really the right word?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sat Nov 18th, 2017 at 03:58:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am sure it's a typo, but the way things are going, the UK is probably the only country the UK will get a great trade deal with.
by fjallstrom on Sat Nov 18th, 2017 at 10:40:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the only country the UK will get a great trade deal with.

Your confidence in the ability of May's government to get such a deal is touching.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sun Nov 19th, 2017 at 09:49:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I would assume it's when you order your groceries online and have them delivered. Never heard of doing it cross borders, but why not?
by fjallstrom on Sat Nov 18th, 2017 at 10:38:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It could be a reference to private van drivers bringing van loads of wine from France to the UK ("for personal use", of course, and so evading duty) and offering to bring UK staples to expats living in France. Although I doubt they could do it for less than Carrefour, Aldi, et al.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Nov 19th, 2017 at 02:25:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, although they are very lucrative.

A friend of mine in SW France says there are several deliverers who take large orders for UK supermarkets bringing back those essential staples of cultural affirmation. A van filled with 100 + grocery orders makes quite a nice living.

In Spain my not only are there UK vans, but Imy sisters tells me there are Dutch and German ones too.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Nov 20th, 2017 at 04:25:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Portugal remains an untapped market.

Given the distance it would probably be easier to organise a wholesale franchise than to do the man+van thing.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Nov 20th, 2017 at 07:41:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Put a big Marmite logo on the side of the van.
You'll be mobbed!
I remember in the 50's when beret-bearing French paysans would ferry-bicycle over to Sarf Ken draped with red onion braids round their necks, handlebars and back panniers.
Madly exotic...
Hella business plan, Asterix!
Crusty Brits pouring out of their villas like kids to the ice cream vans.
Or are they gone too?
(The vans, not the Brits...)

B-wrecks-it blues

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Nov 21st, 2017 at 02:56:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"The government recognises, parliamentarians, businesses, people across the country, people in Europe recognise as well that it is in everyone's interest to have at a minimum a transition period to the new relationship," Mr Carney said in an interview with ITV. He also called for "as comprehensive and open a trading and investment partnership between the UK and the EU 27 at the end of that transition".

That would fit with the Irish Government position, reiterated last night by Foreign Minister Simon Coveney at a dinner for the finance sector in Dublin.


BoE's Mark Carney wants Brexit transition deal as retail wanes

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Fri Nov 17th, 2017 at 10:32:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The UK Ruling Elite are either delusional or in denial.  The UK will be out of the EU on March 29, 2019 and on November 19, 2017 there is every indication it will be the hardest of hard Brexits.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Nov 19th, 2017 at 04:33:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
These are synonymous words.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Nov 19th, 2017 at 05:58:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
not quite

delusional: characterized by or holding idiosyncratic beliefs or impressions that are contradicted by reality or rational argument, typically as a symptom of mental disorder.

denial: failure to acknowledge an unacceptable truth or emotion or to admit it into consciousness, used as a defense mechanism.

Delusion is being out of touch with reality, denial is refusing to accept reality.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Nov 19th, 2017 at 10:26:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
idiosyncratic beliefs:unacceptable truth
mental disorder:defense mechanism
out of touch with reality:refusing to accept reality
+ the mother of them all +
cognition:reasoning

All "facts" dancing on the head of a pin called "autonomic nervous system" or "involuntary functions" or "unconscious reflexes" which inexplicably and often omits examination of the organ, brain, save or create PROFESSIONAL jobs.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Nov 20th, 2017 at 05:22:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
bathos

Ex. n + 1
I awoke this morning to an SMS from my daughter requesting explanation of the critique she received from her English instructor. The instructor's marginal comments (marginalia) identified the following errors in her exposition on the topic of socialization, dramatized by the novel The Bluest Eye: "reductive," not "centrifugal", "expand". The word limit for the assignment, including subject matter citations, was set at 800.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Nov 20th, 2017 at 06:08:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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