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That's not a poll. That's a model, based on a shitload of arbitrary assumptions.

For example : all  the blocs represented in the presidential election will present a candidate in every district, so : one far left, one Mélenchon, one PS/EELV.
Also, they give an arbitrary boost to sitting candidates. This is not a good election for sitting candidates.

To be fair, all they can do is model. Neither the candidates nor even the forces in presence are clear yet. But the result will look nothing like that.

With this model they get only 52 to 78 left candidates surviving the first round, and only 34 to 51 elected.
Those numbers are frankly ridiculous, bearing in mind that .  The party structures will sort something out, to avoid a complete murder/suicide. Even if they don't, which is not impossible, left-wing voters are smarter than that. They will choose the locally-legitimate candidate, as they did nationally in the presidential, which is why Mélenchon got close to qualifying for the second round.

However, En Marche has the huge advantage of being in the middle. In any hypothetical four-way first round, it's likely (depending on the abstemtion rate) that two or three candidates will qualify for the second round. Assuming that EM is one of them, and that the LR or left candidate is eliminated, they are pretty much guaranteed to get the benefit of the eliminated candidate's votes in the second round.

So it would not be surprising if EM got something close to a majority. But it would be very surprising if the left were to be so completely wiped. Especially with the FN set to take a nosedive in the second round of the presidentials.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu May 4th, 2017 at 09:06:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Especially with the FN set to take a nosedive in the second round of the presidentials.
Going from c. 20% of the vote to c. 40% in the second round is hardly a nosedive?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu May 4th, 2017 at 10:56:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was anticipating, after that debate. In the last couple of days, according to the polls, the split has gone from 60/40 to 63/37. I anticipate that she'll finish lower than that on Sunday, perhaps 35%.

Then we can get on with hating on Macron.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Fri May 5th, 2017 at 05:32:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's a given.  But you can also elect a legislature which forces him to look left for a governing majority and leaves the Gaullists to compete with the FN on the right.  Who would be the lead candidate for Prime Minister in a EN Marche!/PS coalition Government?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri May 5th, 2017 at 05:56:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
PS would not achieve much if it is not on Hamon's terms - Valls may well be to the right of Juppe. And then the left would be blamed for the failure of right-wing wing policies once again.
If it were Mélenchon, of course, that would be something. But very unlikely.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Fri May 5th, 2017 at 08:18:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If I put on my conspirational hat, I would say it is a model intentionally benefitting En Marche. By launching that as a "poll" before candidates are presented and any actual polls are made, they position En Marche as the presumptive winner.

Same as the Macron "surge" in January, that was really a model if Bayrou didn't run, positioned Macron as frontrunner.

by fjallstrom on Fri May 5th, 2017 at 03:14:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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