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I think there are some things in there that will prove false.

The SNP tried too hard and flamed out. There will be no independence referendum in the near future.

Ruth Davidson, leader of the Scottish Tories, had a good election and returns to Holyrood (she is an MSP) with her hand strengthened. I imagine there will be some feisty exchanges in the months ahead as she roasts the SNP for their own hubris. It will be intersting if ther are moves afoot to trasplant her to Westminster pending May's departure.

She is a genuine One Nation Tory of an old fashioned kind who cuts a very different figure in comparison the the banksters and grifters currently littering the Government benches. I suspect there will some genuine fireworks between May and Davidson over the DUP as they become involved in legslation.

The new significance of the DUP at Westminster has made London based journalists suddenly curious about who they are and what they stand for. I suspect that they will not enjoy their new prominence as their cupboards are full of skeletons, some literal. Equally, I doubt that moderate Tories will enjoy being associated with people of such truly wild beliefs. Especially in the light of their recent attempt to tar Jeremy Corbyn with dubious associations to the IRA and Hamas.

You are right that that the catastrophic nature of even the best of brexits will not be revealed for some time. In this the remainers were badly advised to suggest that the world would end the day after the referendum or on the day A50 was invoked. That was never likely.

Rather they should have warned of the gradual unwinding of the UK economy, they should have said that every month things were worse was a direct consequence of brexit. It would at least have had some relationship with known facts.

But if the tories had ignored the issues that brexit faces on Northern Ireland, I doubt they'll be doing so going forward. And I think the more they get to know about it, the more likely they are to start worrying about what they've gotten themselves into. that alone will be fun.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 12th, 2017 at 05:03:57 PM EST
As I understand it, the SNP weren't looking for indyref2 before the A50 period has expired, and if they are wise, they will wait at least 5 years after that for the full effects of Brexit to become clearer. There will be time enough for the SNP to recover sufficient ground to demand a referendum once Brexit has done it's worst...

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jun 12th, 2017 at 07:05:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Really? Did Nicola Sturgeon know that cos there was an awful lot about indyref2 in the aftermath of the referendum and the tories were certainly drawing blood over it.

I don't think they were doing that over a non-policy

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 12th, 2017 at 07:45:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm pretty sure I recall an interview with her saying that they were looking for a second referendum when the outcome of the Brexit negotiations was clear.  Brexit is, after all, the reason they have for calling for a second referendum, given that Scotland voted against.

But calling for it right now it can come across as stabbing the UK in the back as it prepares for the Brexit negotiations. They want to leave on good terms.

If I were advising her, I'd be saying that they should be calling for a second referendum after Brexit, but without a fixed timescale, and in practice not for a few years after Brexit.

They should also seek to negotiate the terms of Scottish independence in more detail before a referendum - in order to reduce as much uncertainty as possible.  This could include how the national debt would be apportioned, the future of military bases, the currency to be used, and any transitional measures that might be required.

They can point to the Brexit referendum as an example of how not to do it - with much confusion as to what Brexit would actually entail.

In practice, I doubt indyref2 will ever be held while the Conservative and Unionist party is in power...

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jun 12th, 2017 at 08:15:39 PM EST
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