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Theresa May's election victory will prove pyrrhic indeed - Larry Elliott - Guardian
Labour would have to conduct devilishly difficult Brexit talks at a time when people were getting poorer. Far better to let the Tories clear up their own mess. ...

The pro-EU wing of the Tory party is small but, just like the DUP, has become more influential in a hung parliament. ...

All the ingredients are there for a Conservative schism not seen since the repeal of the Corn Laws in the 1840s. Then, as now, the Tories were divided, on that occasion between its free trade and protectionist wings. The split damaged the Tory party so badly that it was unable to form a majority government for 28 years. All Labour needs to do is sit back and watch events unfold. As Napoleon once said, never interfere with an enemy that's in the process of destroying itself.

Suppose it all passes as predicted. Brexit and this curious coalition prove a toxic cocktail that in two years at most will fail in spectacular fashion. Will people be able to connect the dots and sweep Labour into power? In one of your last diaries you said most popular reactions to calamities in Europe have been regressive (indeed reactionary) rather than progressive. Would this time be a real turning? Or simply cyclical political behaviour aided by conservative incompetence?

I'd love for Elliott's prediction (Leaver!) to come true and the Tories self destruct for a generation. But the roots maybe go deeper than that?!

Schengen is toast!

by epochepoque on Sun Jun 11th, 2017 at 10:18:17 PM EST
Where I differ from most commentary is that I see Brexit as an incremental negative with its effects getting gradually worse and worse over time. So I make no predictions for 2 years time - probably 5 is the minimum required for the really bad effects to become clear, and 10 is more likely for major changes like Scottish Independence or Irish re-unification.  It may even take longer than that for the political consequences of economic decline to become clear.

For instance, former Alliance party leader, John Cushnahan argues that Sinn Fein should abandon its abstention policies because the slight DUP vote increases, the decline in the SNP vote, and the increased influence of the DUP on a Conservative government will make a border poll unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Yes, but such a poll was never going to happen in the next few years in any case, and will only be winnable by Sin Fein if Brexit is as big a disaster for the DUP as I expect. Most Brexit economic and political punditry has been very short term in it's focus.  Brexit is a long term, historic, incremental disaster.  I don't expect fundamental political change in the next five years and it does not invalidate my argument to say that it won't happen in that time-frame.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jun 11th, 2017 at 11:07:10 PM EST
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