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Median elasticity assumption results in a fall in EU to UK trade by 30% and a 22% reduction in UK to EU trade. The mean elasticities are slightly higher and would generate falls of 37% in EU-UK trade and 27% in UK-EU trade. The upper and lower bounds of the estimates are given by the maximum elasticity estimates which would generate trade falls of 56% and 45% in EU-UK and UK-EU trade respectively and the minimum estimates would result in trade declines of 17% and 12% respectively.
These are massive reductions in trade and are based on Minimum WTO tariffs.
And non of the above takes into account the effect of devaluation, which will devastate EU-UK trade much further.
Index of Frank's Diaries
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