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The party of Corbyn had best get to picking through the EU's proposed (financial) settlement bill for UK. That is to  sort (1) existing "club" privileges from (2) unrealized, future, third-country "membership" loyalty points demanded.

iirc, EU demand for payment UK commitment to the budget (2014-2020) includes UK "membership" insurance --wide-ranging programmatic benefit coverage including but not limited to duty-free customs enforcement-- until 2021. That is two years from the date of withdrawal 2019. Call that "transition" already on the table, if you will.

Also the exercise may allow the party to situate its vision with a right to reserve membership in the EEA, now that dear leader has conceded the efficacy of free-flow of EU nationals into the UK but not ECJ supremacy. It's a big "fig leaf" of cetainty and UK declaration won't require EP approval ... o, wait.


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Aug 27th, 2017 at 05:28:17 PM EST
Although their may be all sorts of rationales adduced for calculating the sums due, the bottom line is that the figures are entirely negotiable and dependent of goodwill and other concessions made. The figure will be miraculously reduced if there is a deal on the table the EU actually wants, and kept high if they are dissatisfied with progress.

The ongoing annual payment for access to the Single Market may end up being of more significance.  Here there are Norwegian/Swiss precedents for guidance although none are binding. Presumably it will have to be less than current UK payments (less rebate) to the EU budget, but who knows?  It depends on how bloody minded the negotiations get, and how much both parties want the deal taking shape.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Aug 27th, 2017 at 05:45:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Norway is an EEA "Contracting Party." Switzerland is not.
In everyday language the latter three [Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway] go by the term "EEA EFTA States" in order to clarify that the other EFTA State, Switzerland, is not party to the EEA Agreement.

But the gov't of Switzerland knows how to behave itself with respect to VITAL private sector business in the EU.
::
"Congratulations, Swissair/Sabena!"

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Aug 27th, 2017 at 06:28:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Position paper transmitted to the EU27: essential principles on the financial settlement (pdf, 24 May 2017)
2. This single financial settlement should be based on the principle that the United Kingdom must
honour its share of the financing of all the obligations undertaken while it was a member of the
Union. The United Kingdom obligations should be fixed as a percentage of the EU obligationscalculated at the date of withdrawal in accordance with a methodology to be agreed in the first phase of the negotiations.
  1. On this basis, the United Kingdom should continue to benefit from all programmes as before the withdrawal until their closure under the condition that it respects the applicable Union legal rules.
  2. Accounts shall be established in euro and all payments from the United Kingdom to the Union should be made in euro.

&tc.
See Annex 2. List of basic acts financed by the consolidated account

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Aug 27th, 2017 at 05:49:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the United Kingdom should continue to benefit from all programmes as before the withdrawal until their closure

So. Two (2) years from date of withdrawal is an incorrect statement. Programs' statutory periods to which the UK is already committed probably run longer than two years, or the end of the current EU budget year. Which ones?

I bet EU negotiators know. I bet Labour doesn't give a fig.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Aug 27th, 2017 at 06:02:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The ongoing annual payment for access to the Single Market may end up being of more significance.

What is that figure? For "EFTA States" in the Single Market ... on average ...

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Aug 27th, 2017 at 06:09:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"What the fall of the Sterling really means" is the longer the UK gov't ignores negotiating the bill the greater the price paid in sterling, silver.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Aug 27th, 2017 at 06:12:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
euro

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Aug 27th, 2017 at 06:31:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Norway pays the same (per capita) as the UK for EU access
in net terms Norway pays a similar sum per person for its arrangement as the UK does for full membership.

To see why this is so, start with Norway's gross contribution. In 2016, Norway's payments in relation to its membership of the European single market and other EU programmes it takes part in will come to about £623 million* or £119 a head, according to an analysis by InFacts of data provided by the country's embassy in the UK.

Unfortunately, there are no public figures for the money Norway gets back from these programmes, making it impossible to be certain what its net contribution is. However, a generous assumption would be that Norway receives an amount per capita similar to what the UK receives from those parts of Europe's arrangements in which Norway participates--mainly the EU's science funding programme. (The UK has been notably successful in winning EU science grants.)

Britain's receipts from EU programmes that Norway also benefits from (again, using generous assumptions) come to £23 per person**. Subtracting that amount from Norway's gross contribution, we get an estimated net contribution of £96 per head.

What is the equivalent figure for Britain? As InFacts has previously shown, the UK sent £12.9 billion to the EU last year. After subtracting the money the EU spends in the UK and money that the UK would spend anyway because of its commitment to global development targets, the UK's net contribution to the EU comes to £96 per capita--by coincidence, exactly the same as our estimate for Norway.

With devaluation, the UK could end up paying considerably more than Norway in £ terms. But hey - Norwegian ministers don't have to attend all those boring EU decision making meetings...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Aug 27th, 2017 at 06:29:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Denominator
The population of Norway is 5.233 million (2016).
The population of UK is 6.64 million (2016)

What this statement, "Norway pays the same (per capita) as the UK for EU access", express to me is, Norway is willing and able to pay for Single Market access. And its esteem for that access is greater per capita than that of the UK.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Aug 27th, 2017 at 06:36:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The population of UK is 65.64 million (2016).

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Aug 27th, 2017 at 06:37:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
>>UK could end up paying considerably more than Norway in £ terms

This statement is nonsensical. It's a canard. Krone devaluation greater than that of GBP "relative" to EUR --legal tender of EU gov't. -- was established ages ago.  GBP is not legal tender of EU gov't. Further, GBP:EUR has no parity. Were UK gov't to pay more than Norway in "£ terms", GBP not only would "break" EUR and NOK. NOK is cheaper than RMB "relative" to either GBP or EUR.

a/o today,
GBP:EUR, 1 pound buys EUR 1.08.
EUR:NOK, 1 EUR buys NOK 9.28.
GBP:NOK, 1 pound buys NOK 10.
NOK:EUR, 1:0.1078. 1 krone buys EUR 0.11.
NOK:GBP, 1:0.0999. I krone buys 10 pence.

US Treasury will never let that happen.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Aug 30th, 2017 at 02:47:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Y'all keep towing the zerohedge line, devaluation is great! (so long as nobody imports anything).

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Aug 30th, 2017 at 02:59:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
(and your gov't treasury is sitting massive reserves of foreign currency which it will lend to its natural and corporate citizens at low, low prices simply because it's fun to buy high risk, high gain "emerging market" bonds.)

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Aug 30th, 2017 at 03:04:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
My sense is that most people 'here' - i.e. ET - are quite skeptical about claims made by zerohedge and do not share their general libertarian outlook.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Aug 30th, 2017 at 04:43:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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