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Suppose there is no deal, and a cliff-edge Brexit instead. What happens on the ground?

Who would police the movement of goods between the EU and the UK? The customs infrastructure would have to be large and sophisticated, and the motivation for black market operation would surge. Depending on the day-to-day relative currency values, money laundering and arbitrage opportunities would abound. If the availability of basic foodstuffs and household supplies were to decline, there would be a strong incentive for offshore suppliers (e.g., China, USA, Brazil) to ship directly to poorly-monitored distribution centers, bypassing monitoring stations. Industrial supplies might also be in demand, encouraging hoarding and under-the-table transactions. Labor migration might also occur to fill in the gaps left by the official system: is it better to have an "illegal" nursing staff at your hospital or "no" nursing staff? Or at your farm, or factory?

Just trying to visualize what would actually happen if people woke up in March 2018 and there is no actual regulatory environment and no capable regulatory agencies. Where would you buy your groceries if they are not available at the government-approved stores?

by asdf on Tue Aug 29th, 2017 at 01:15:13 PM EST

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