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I find the chances of a transition deal really slim. Xavier Bettel has been the most vocal at the Council against it:

The Guardian | Luxembourg PM tells Britain: either you're in the EU or you're not

The prime minister of Luxembourg, Xavier Bettel, said he would be opposed to the bloc giving Britain an interim deal to cover the transitional period between its exit from the EU at the end of article 50 talks and the signature of a comprehensive new free trade agreement, which could take as long as a decade to negotiate.

"What would interim mean?" Bettel told Agence France-Presse. "That we are going make a hybrid status now? Either you're a member or you're not a member of the European Union ... There is no in-between status, there is no hybrid status between the two."

In August of 2016 François Hollande and Xavier Bettel met for a mini-summit and the then French President did not dissent from this outspoken stance against the transition period.

Luxembourg is an obvious benefactor of Brexit, particularly so if the UK also leases the EEA, as seems to be the case. I doubt that Bettel is alone in this position and even in the extraordinary case of a transition deal being decided by a qualified majority I do not see it at this moment harnessing the necessary support at the Council.

You might find me At The Edge Of Time.

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]a[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]gmail[dot]com) on Thu Aug 10th, 2017 at 11:46:30 AM EST

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