Sun Sep 14th, 2014 at 01:41:41 AM EST
Here from my Eagle's Nest in Linlithgow, in Scotland's Central Belt, I thought it would be rude not to chip in my thoughts as to next Thursday's referendum vote.
My first data points are historic election turnout figures in Scotland covering both UK & Scottish Parliament Elections.
Election Turnouts 1997 to 2011
Then there's the 2011 Scottish Parliament Election outright win for the SNP which the voting system had pretty much been gerrymandered to prevent. I assume that very few of those voting SNP in 2011 will either abstain or vote No.
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by Frank Schnittger
Thu Sep 11th, 2014 at 04:18:10 AM EST
Luis de Sousa's excellent diary has provoked a long comment by me saying a lot of things I've been meaning to say for some time, but which are not all a direct response to his thoughts. So I think a separate diary is merited analyzing what has changed in the Scottish Independence debate.
What I think has shifted the debate in Scotland is the realization that institutions and assets which they had always been told were British, were in fact English.
Thus the Pound Sterling belongs to England (the central bank name: Bank of England should have been a giveaway). The military bases and manufacturing facilities in Scotland will be moved south - proving that the Army and associated industries belong to England not all of Britain. And the general sense that the Scots will have to develop all institutions and skills of Governance from scratch - as if Scots have had no hand act or part of the Departments of State in Whitehall.
In other words the implied blackmail of taking all these things away has only confirmed that Scotland was being ruled not just from, but by, England in the first place. Parties to a divorce normally split their joint assets and one party cannot claim virtually all the house and contents as their own: and yet this is partly what the No campaign have been claiming.
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by Luis de Sousa
Tue Sep 9th, 2014 at 04:28:55 AM EST
Thursday the 18th Scotland is going to vote what may well be the most important political decision in several centuries for itself and the UK. The reasons that prompted this process are many: the perception of a slow derision of Scottish identity and culture, the crystallisation of the UK's democracy (where non elected individuals still retain important powers), natural resources, budget sharing, NATO, just to name a few.
I am not Scottish, nor do I live in Scotland, thus I can not possibly fathom everything driving the vote. But one exercise I can make: assess the economic risks associated with the decision. And by doing so the complexity of this question becomes apparent, as so how uncertain is the outcome.
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by Crazy Horse
Sat Sep 6th, 2014 at 08:23:01 AM EST
A US judge has ruled that BP is guilty of gross negligence in the Deepwater oil catastrophe. If upheld (of course BP will appeal) it will increase the fine from $1100/barrel to $4300/barrel, totaling an estimated $18 Billion.
BP had already plead guilty to 14 felonies, with a fine of $4.5B in a plea bargain with the US Gov! (Yes, felonies.)
So how does one count the number of barrels already spilled, especially when BP publicly stated it was leaking 5000 barrels/day, while internal reports stated the leak could be between 62,000 and 146,000 barrels per day?
A colleague of mine has now reported for the first time the effects of using as "dispersant" Corexit, both on the health of some 47,000 cleanup workers, and how the amount of oil spilled was camouflaged.
Read on to discover why I continue to use the word poison in describing fossil fuels.
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Thu Sep 4th, 2014 at 08:46:17 AM EST
If you thought the ECB setting its deposit rate at negative 0.10% was the end of the road for interest-rate policy, you got another think coming:
4 September 2014 - Monetary policy decisions
At today's meeting the Governing Council of the ECB took the following monetary policy decisions:
The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 2.30 p.m. CET today.
- The interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem will be decreased by 10 basis points to 0.05%, starting from the operation to be settled on 10 September 2014.
- The interest rate on the marginal lending facility will be decreased by 10 basis points to 0.30%, with effect from 10 September 2014.
- The interest rate on the deposit facility will be decreased by 10 basis points to -0.20%, with effect from 10 September 2014.
How deep does the rabbit hole go?
Wed Sep 3rd, 2014 at 04:21:58 AM EST
Hoisted from the Newsroom, this New Europe leader:
Europe Expects | neurope.eu
The Ukraine crisis is a real challenge. The situation in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq is a serious problem. The refugees arriving at Europe's borders if they escape drowning in the Mediterranean is a serious problem. The Eurozone's real economy refusing to be convinced by ideological platitudes is a serious problem. Germany's deeply rooted bipolar insecurities shaping core European policies is a serious problem, so is France's debility and UK's tangential blundering. The divide between the European North and South but also East and West is a serious problem. The resulting estrangement of European societies is a serious problem.
What, if anything, would you add to this list, what would you take away? How correct do the assessments seem? What outcomes should Europe be aiming at on these points?
Europe Expects | neurope.eu
All these combine to create Europe's most important existential challenge, a challenge that needs to be faced during the next five years, the life-span of the new Parliament and the new Commission.
The new Parliament that contains, in its strong far-right contingent, a reminder of what awaits us all if real problems are not faced. And a new Commission that must not repeat the behind-doors genuflections to powerful interests that have been typical of the flabby Barroso Commission. Any hope?
Sat Aug 30th, 2014 at 04:09:42 AM EST
Posted by Frances Coppola on Aug 27th 2014, 2 Comments
This is the first of several posts covering topics discussed at the recent Lindau Meeting for Economic Sciences.
Several economists at the Lindau meeting were severely critical of central banks' conduct of monetary policy in the light of continuing depression in the US, Japan and much of Europe, and called for greater use of fiscal policy to bring about recovery. Among the most critical was Christopher Sims, who gave a trenchant presentation on "Inflation, Fear of Inflation and Public Debt".
He started by announcing the death of the quantity theory of money, MV=PY. Due to interest on reserves and near-zero interest rates, "money" can no longer be clearly distinguished from other financial assets. This is a fundamental point which requires some explanation.
These days, nearly all forms of money bear interest, which makes them indistinguishable from interest-bearing assets. For Sims, the paying of interest on bank reserves, coupled with the decline of physical currency, all but eliminates the distinction between interest-bearing safe assets such as Treasury bills and what we traditionally call "money". All assets can be regarded as "money" to a greater or lesser extent: the extent to which assets have "moneyness" is really a matter of liquidity.
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Mon Aug 25th, 2014 at 05:15:19 AM EST
French Minister for the Economy (for fake, the real powers being elsewhere) Arnaud Montebourg came out over the weekend with clear criticism of Hollande's leadership. Hollande's 2012 promise to get the economy and employment on the move again had clearly failed, he said; supply side policies could not work without demand-side stimulus, and he solemnly called on Hollande to change course. And he broke the big taboo:
A la Fête de la rose, Montebourg et Hamon mettent la pression sur Hollande
La France est un pays libre qui n'a pas vocation à s'aligner sur les obsessions de la droite allemande
(France is a free country that is not meant to align itself on the obsessions of the German right)
Ooh, he said Germany and obsessions! "France is Germany's friend", that is the only kind of phrase in which a French government official (under Hollande or Sarkozy) is supposed to mention that country.
Manuel Valls (according to Le Parisien) told Hollande "It's him or it's me". This morning he tendered the resignation of his government and was immediately reconducted as PM by Hollande. The new government will be named tomorrow, and, apart from Montebourg, probably other heads (Benoît Hamon, perhaps others) will roll.
Hollande and Valls confirm their centre-right alignment on austerity. Whether they will now avoid a split in the Socialist Party, and how significant the split might be, are other questions.
Thu Aug 21st, 2014 at 09:52:49 AM EST
Continuing my review of Wolfgang Streeck's Buying Time : The delayed crisis of democratic capitalism. (The first installment is here)
I want to strongly recommend reading the book. Streeck is a philosopher and sociologist, and his take on economics is a refreshing re-injection of the social element that orthodox economics so rigorously excludes and ignores. My feeling is that, in the fightback against neoliberalism, "Buying Time" is as important as, and convergent with, Thomas Piketty's "Capital".
Chapter 2 : Neoliberal reform : from tax state to debt state
Streeck documents the progressive disenfranchising of actual electors, as each nation's creditors gain the whip hand after the transformation of our "tax states" into "debt states", and aggressively counters the neo-liberal meme that the slide into debt has been the product of demagogic profligacy.
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Tue Aug 19th, 2014 at 08:04:19 AM EST
European Commissioner for Employment Laszlo Andor gave an interview to German conservative newspaper Die Welt (behind subs wall, and not much available in Eng-lang media as of posting):
Luxemburger Wort - Brussels pleads with Germany to let wages rise
AFP) Germany must increase workers' salaries to help its neighbours out of the economic slump, the European Union's employment commissioner Laszlo Andor said Saturday.
The Hungarian said Berlin's big foreign trade surplus was hurting its European partners, and urged it to stimulate domestic demand by increasing wages and public expenditure.
"The rise in salaries has fallen behind the rise in productivity in Germany" for more than a decade, Andor told the German conservative daily Die Welt, in an interview due to be published on Sunday.
Brussels was now urging Germany, the EU's economic powerhouse, to relax its iron grip on wages, which he said was "indispensible" for the recovery of the rest of the region.
"It would be better if salaries rise in parallel with productivity," Andor added.
His comments come amid signs of stalling growth in the 18-member eurozone, particularly its largest economies Germany and France, as the bloc struggles to recover from years of financial crisis.
Brussels now appears to be taking a view long championed by France that a rise in German salaries would give the struggling eurozone a much-needed stimulus.
France's President Francois Hollande this month called on Berlin to boost spending as "the best favour Germany could do for France and for Europe" to help growth.
"It's very important that Germany increases public spending, stimulates demand and reduces its excessive trade surplus, which is hurting its European neighbours," Andor said.
Hollande (as reported) made feeble noises in this sense at the beginning of the month. Official communications in France, echoed by the MSM, say that Hollande's policy is to bring together European social democrats to militate for a change of direction on austerity. But Andor is particularly clear... and a Commissioner.
The ball is in Angie's court. Will she smash it? Ignore it? Send back a spin shot? Place your bets.
Fri Aug 15th, 2014 at 12:53:53 PM EST
Wolfgang Streeck, leading figure of the Frankfurt school of philosophy, has published an incisive and compelling analysis of the interplay between capitalism and democracy in the developed world over the past forty years or so : Buying Time : The delayed crisis of democratic capitalism.
Eurotrib having been offered a copy, I have undertaken to review it. I feel suited to the task because I have nothing but an autodidact's random smattering of economics, sociology and philosophy, and will mostly restrict myself to a naïve synthesis of Streeck's theses, leaving my far more erudite and insightful readers to do the serious work. I will resist quoting directly from the text because I wouldn't know where to stop; everything is eminently quotable, written with admirable clarity and humour, nicely translated, a constant pleasure to read.
The book, based on the 2012 Adorno lectures, was published last year in Germany, and the English translation (by Patrick Camiller) has just been published by Verso, an imprint of New Left Books. It can be ordered in physical form from the publisher, or electronically from Amazon, iTunes, or Nook. (Yes, it's buying "Buying time" time).
The three chapters correspond to the three lectures on which they are based. Despite the book's relative brevity (less than 200 pages, excluding the extensive bibliography and index) I propose to do a diary on each chapter; each one is of sufficient density to merit discussion.
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by Frank Schnittger
Wed Aug 6th, 2014 at 04:11:13 AM EST
The USA has been the undisputed Global superpower since the collapse of the Soviet Union; dominating the world militarily, politically, economically and culturally. In recent times China has begun to make some inroads into that economic dominance, Russia has begun to become more assertive again, and Merkel has consolidated her position as undisputed leader of the Eurozone. But the most significant changes have possibly been within the USA itself.
First came 9/11 which punctured the sense of American invincibility: that the US could do what it liked abroad without it having much in the way of repercussions at home. In military terms the event wasn't all that significant: 3,000 deaths is all in a weeks work in some of the bloodier conflicts around the world. But what was significant was the reaction: America went collectively mad.
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by Frank Schnittger
Sat Jul 26th, 2014 at 03:04:09 AM EST
298 mostly European civilians lost their lives when a civilian airliner was apparently shot down by a sophisticated homing missile available only to the most advanced armies in the world and fired from an area controlled by Ukrainian insurgents. Such weapons had allegedly been previously used to shoot down Ukrainian military aircraft. Whether it was operated by Ukrainian insurgents, Russian "advisers", or regular Russian troops, is almost immaterial: Putin and the Russian federation are almost certainly ultimately responsible. And yet European leaders do little but wring their hands and complain about the chaotic crash scene investigation and the recovery of bodies and personal effects.
No one expects European leaders to go to war with a nuclear power like Russia over such a provocation - but the repeated mincing of words by Obama and his Nato allies is nothing short of embarrassing. Well might Putin et al obfuscate until the outcry dies down. But isn't it about time that the EU took some concerted action? How about a strategic EU energy policy and plan to reduce all dependence on Russian gas within 10 years to zero by building a European supergrid powered from largely sustainable sources?
The problem with most forms of sustainable energy is that they require very large amounts of capital upfront, reasonable interest rates, and guaranteed feed in tariffs to be economically viable. This is problematic at a time when many EU states - particularly those at the periphery are over-borrowed and under huge pressure to reduce Sovereign and private indebtedness. But how about making such capital available through the European Investment Bank for EU Commission approved projects?
Irish and Scottish wind, wave and tidal turbines allied to eastern European and Mediterranean solar farms could make up a huge amount of the energy deficit created by a progressive reduction in Russian energy imports, whilst at the same time providing a much needed boost to investment and employment starved peripheral EU economies. Would it be too much to ask the EU to be proactive and actually take the lead in such a continent wide project? Would it be too much to ask for the EU to actually have a continent wide energy policy?
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Thu Jul 24th, 2014 at 01:52:29 AM EST
In the discussion of Britain's EU exit initiated by Frank, Cyrille challenges me repeatedly on free movement of capital:
I think the "four freedoms" should apply as widely as possible so, on that basis, it would be a bad thing if the UK were to leave the EU.That is a consistent view, ...
[b]ut I had been under the impression that you were no fan of the free movement of capital -certainly an unrestricted one.
Unfettered cross-border capital flows are a bad idea. Just look at the financial crises of the last 30 years, worldwide.
So, do we want free movement of capital? More below the fold.
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Mon Jul 21st, 2014 at 02:58:26 AM EST
Over the weekend, two pro-Palestinian demonstrations in France (banned because of previous attacks on synagogues, official reason) began peacefully and ended in violent street fighting.
French president François Hollande alluded to the situation yesterday, when decorating documentalists of WWII deportation and murder of Jews in France Beate and Serge Klarsfeld with the Légion d'Honneur. Here is what he had to say about the current situation in France (emphasis mine):
Hollande refuse tout acte «qui puisse faire ressurgir l'antisémitisme» - Libération
«La République, c'est la capacité de vivre ensemble, de regarder son histoire et en même temps d'être toujours prêts à défendre les valeurs démocratiques, de ne pas se laisser entraîner par des querelles qui sont trop loin d'ici pour être importées, de ne pas se laisser emporter par les déflagrations du monde», a-t-il dit. Il faut, a-t-il ajouté, «faire en sorte que ne soit toléré aucun acte, aucune parole qui puisse faire ressurgir l'antisémitisme et le racisme».
The Republic means being able to live together, to be aware of its history and be always ready at the same time to defend democratic values, not to let ourselves be caught up in quarrels that are too far away from here to be imported, to not get carried away by the explosions of the world ... act so that no deed, no word be tolerated that might bring back antisemitism and racism.
François Hollande does not know that Palestine is not far away, that what is happening there is in every French living-room. He does not know that Israel's war crimes against the people of Gaza are right there on France's doorstep. He does not know that the country he presides is a Mediterranean country. He is ignorant of the ethnic and cultural origins of a large proportion of unemployed young people in France, of their historical and family links to other Mediterranean countries, of the fact that the rise of anti-Jewish sentiment among them is fuelled, precisely, by Israel's oppression of the Palestinians. He does not know that the death of boys playing on the beach at one end of Mare Nostrum washes up on the beaches of Marseille. He therefore fails to "be aware of (the French Republic's) history", and he wishfully believes that incantatory nonsense will suffice to lay the ghosts of the past while he turns his head away from the monsters of the present. By this appalling little speech he has gained his place among the pusillanimous European leaders who averted their eyes from Nazism until it was too late, and thus played a large part in permitting the genocide that followed - and which was exactly the subjacent theme of the ceremony at which he pronounced these words.
If you hear the echo of Neville Chamberlain on Czechoslovakia:
Neville Chamberlain - Wikiquote
a quarrel in a far away country between people of whom we know nothing
you have finer-tuned hearing than François Hollande, though you win no prizes, it really isn't hard.
Mon Jul 21st, 2014 at 02:50:49 AM EST
So, what do we have? My impression of the situation is laid out below - please pick holes in it.
MH17 went down last Thursday afternoon over a separatist held area of Ukraine. It appears that it was shot down by a surface to air missile that was either captured from government forces or recently supplied to the separatists by Russia (or elements in Russia …)
The flight seems to have been further north than was usual for airliners, but within an airspace that it expected to be safe, despite several downings of Ukrainian aircraft in the area.
The missile was, apparently, fired by a SAM battery operating independently and not as part of an integrated air defence net and so without the capability to positively identify aircraft by transponder. It seems most likely that they thought they were firing on another Ukrainian military craft.
The battery was either, depending on who you believe:
- Under the command of the separatists, manned by separatists, probably (though not necessarily) recently trained by Russia. Seems like the most likely case to me.
- Under the command of the separatists, manned by Russian "advisors".
- Under the command of and manned by Russian forces.
- Personally commanded and operated by Putin, who fired the missile and then leapt shirtless onto the missile, personally steering it to its target before gliding back to the ground using his armpit hair.
It seems incontrovertible that the separatists haven't adhered to anything near best practice with securing the crash site, but that's hardly surprising given that they're basically a new militia and don't really have an interest in a proper investigation anyway.
298 people are dead because some dickhead decided to fire on an unidentified aircraft. Meanwhile, everyone with an interest in the civil war in Ukraine is using their deaths to further their own political interests.
Update [2014-7-22 7:56:2 by Colman]: Edited to correct "identified aircraft" to "unidentified aircraft" in last paragraph, which rather alters the sense of it.
by Frank Schnittger
Wed Jul 16th, 2014 at 05:49:41 AM EST
Jean-Claude Juncker has now been formally elected at President of the European Commission by a 422 to 250 vote in the European Parliament. Most Prime Ministers in Europe can only dream of such a wide margin of victory. That vote follows on from his 26 to 2 vote victory in the European Council (made up of national heads of government). And Yet Nigel Farage, leader of England's UKIP, can only rage at the undemocratic nature of his election.
It is ironic that the most vehement objections to Juncker's election have come from the UK - a country which has a whole House of Parliament made up of unelected Lords and which has just nominated one of that number - Lord Hill - to be Britain's next member of the Commission. It seems democracy only becomes an issue when you don't get your own man appointed through some kind of back room deal. The UK's ignorance of and contempt for EU institutions has now come to bite it severely in the back-side.
Cameron's influence in the EU is now at an all time low and will not be helped by his replacement of Foreign Secretary William Hague by the Eurosceptic Philip Hammond in a Government reshuffle which also sees a number of other prominent Eurosceptics promoted. When this is combined with the UK's likely loss of Baroness Ashton's (another ex-member of the House of Lords) post of High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, it looks as if the stage is being set for an ever more distant relationship between the EU and UK.
Why anyone in the EU (apart from Ireland) should now be bothered about anything Cameron has to do or say is beyond me. Should Scotland vote for Independence another barrier to England going it's own way and departing the EU will have been removed. Northern Ireland's constitutional status will again be destabilized, and who knows how that will play out - possibly for the better - but it could be a long and painful process. Cameron could yet be known as the Prime Minister who led England to the break-up of the UK. Certainly the EU will not be weakened by his antics.
Thu Jul 10th, 2014 at 05:53:49 AM EST
The big story in Irish politics right now is not, as one might think, the appointment of a new leader to the Labour party, coalition renegotiation and an upcoming reshuffle but five cancelled Garth Brooks concerts. Seriously.
Taoiseach Enda Kenny should be prepared to ring, or take a call from, singer Garth Brooks in order to resolve the impasse over the five cancelled Croke Park concerts, Minister for Trade Joe Costello has said.
Dublin City Council is under intense pressure to help salvage the cancelled concerts planned for Croke Park later this month after Mr Kenny intervened in the debacle last night.
The American country singer cancelled the concerts after the council granted a licence for only three of them.
Lord Mayor of Dublin Christy Burke told the same programme he was hoping to meet Mr Keegan in the presence of a mediator today in an effort to resolve the issue.
Mr Burke said the Mexican ambassador to Ireland had offered his help in the matter and that a group of residents from Ballybough in Dublin’s north inner citty intended to call for the assistance of US president Barack Obama.
“The Mexican ambassador contacted me yesterday and he offered his services at a diplomatic level if he could be any help and I had a group of residents from Ballybough who said they intend to call Mr Obama to try to encourage Garth Brooks to play in Dublin,” he said.
The Taoiseach is understood to have spoken by phone with mediator Kieran Mulvey. Mr Mulvey has embarked on new discussions with the city council’s chief executive Owen Keegan. (Irish Times)
There are calls for emergency legislation to "fix" the planning laws.
However, I suppose it could be worse (and no doubt will be):
Controversial emergency laws will be introduced into the Commons next Monday to reinforce the powers of security services to require internet and phone companies to keep records of their customers' emails and calls.
The move follows private talks over the past week and the laws will have the support of Labour and the Liberal Democrats on the basis that there will be a sunset clause and a new board to oversee the functioning of the powers.
Details are due to be announced at a Downing Street press conference on Thursday morning. The Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board, modelled on a similar US body and including external experts, will be required to check on how the powers are used.
There will also be annual transparency reports setting out how frequently police and security services are using the legislation. There will also be a new high-level diplomat appointed to smooth relations with the US over surveillance.(Guardian)
What could go wrong with emergency surveillance legislation?
Fri Jul 4th, 2014 at 07:31:32 AM EST
The Roma - probably Europe's closest analogue to African Americans? - are also ex-slaves:
Slavery (Romanian: robie) existed on the territory of present-day Romania from before the founding of the principalities of Wallachia and Moldavia in 13th–14th century, until it was abolished in stages during the 1840s and 1850s. Most of the slaves were of Roma (Gypsy) ethnicity. Particularly in Moldavia there were also slaves of Tatar ethnicity, probably prisoners captured from the wars with the Nogai and Crimean Tatars. (Wikipedia)
Wed Jul 2nd, 2014 at 11:00:10 AM EST
Stumbling out of his tomb, the mummified remains of Tony Blair are off to help out the Eygptians:
Tony Blair has agreed to advise the Egyptian president, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who came to power in a military coup last year, as part of a programme funded by the United Arab Emirates that has promised to deliver huge "business opportunities" to those involved, the Guardian has learned. The former prime minister and Middle East peace envoy, who supported the coup against Egypt's elected president Mohamed Morsi, is to give Sisi advice on "economic reform" in collaboration with a UAE-financed taskforce in Cairo – a decision that has been criticised by one former ally.
But it is understood that correspondence from Blair's office in support of Egypt's economic reform and investment programme confirms that lucrative "business opportunities", in both Egypt and the Gulf, are expected for those taking part. Blair's spokeswoman said: "We are not looking at any business opportunities in Egypt."
Alastair Campbell, Blair's former press secretary who resigned in 2003 over the Iraq war "dodgy dossier" scandal, is also advising the Sisi government on its public image and being paid for it – though on Wednesday he refused to say if he had been working with Strategy.
What a pair of grubby little sliveens.