How about you?

the Pacific NW.  That's how it's called, probably because Portland, OR is only 40 miles away.  We still "farm" timber to some degree, and I predict that this type of agricultural endeavor will grow again in our area.

To our east, there is one of the great temperate fruit-growing regions, and it appears to be a fairly stable industry, both in terms of the producers and the product.  One thing that may alter the equation in the future is that this whole area is very attractive in many regards.  The orchard land is already substantially more valuable as a subdivision, but the impact has not been large thus far.  I would not care to predict, though.

There are some large organic operations in the region, too.  These seem to have sufficient margin to justify growth and diversification, as well.

You mention energy production.  One of the emerging synergies with the farmers is wind turbines on farmland.  Essentially, the farmer is practicing his normal agriculture on 95% of the farmland, while receiving rent for the turbines' space.  There are several developments of that sort within 80 miles to the East, and the only hindrance to this scheme is manufacturing capacity of the turbine companies.

I don't think that there will be a great rush in Washington and Oregon to raise corn for ethanol and what-not.  The farmers in the eastern sections of this region have to irrigate, and the water is expensive.  So far, they appear to realize that corn will take too many nutrients out of the soil and will cost much more for water.

Finally, our area is growing slowly, but part of this is due to an in-migration of retirees, and part is due to the desirability of the area for a home base.

paul spencer

In May I went to the island off Yakushima, off the southern tip of the southernmost main island of Kyushu.

It was amazing to see how few young people there were there, aside from tourists.  I think the youngest person in the village where I stayed was 53.

(More striking was to see how hard the locals worked their gardens, rivers, beaches: gardening, farming, fishing, carpentry, etc.  I am talking about people into their 70s and 80s, who probably don't have to work that much to live, but who do so to save money, as growing and fishing your own food, and fixing your own homes, is obviously much cheaper than paying for it.)

By the way, too bad we never got to meet while I was in Tokyo.  The next time I swing through there, I'll ping you to see if we can't meet up in Chichibu or somewhere.

Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read or write.

I have lived in many places, including rural ones, but was born and presently live in an urban area.

In Hungary and Slovakia, rural areas face the exact same problems as you describe: too little job choice, poverty, young people moving away. During communism, there have been from-above attempts to mend the problem, but they usually caused more trouble than benefits. Then the state did little since 1989. However, the counter-migration of middle- and upper-class people out from the city, and also the mass trend for weekend homes, limited the shift somewhat.

In East Germany, my impression is that the problem is much worse, with post-Reunification out-migration threatening to depopulate whole areas, despite the extensive reconstruction of villages and new construction of private homes with generous state support.

In West Germany and Austria, on one hand even farmers are rich, on the other hand settlement structure is so dense and/or tourism is as widespread that city various emigrants seem to balance those who leave, but there too, young people prefer the cities to farming.

I, like DeAnander, think that on the long run, it's major cities that are doomed. In the post-oil-economy, people might feel forced to move closer to the source of food just like after WWII.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

I live in rural Somerset, UK. Up to thirty percent of the housing in some villages has been bought for second homes by Londoners. This keeps the price of property well out of the reach of any young people who may wish to stay there, even if they can find local jobs. Traditional farmers often struggle against agricultural imports, and the low prices paid by the big grocers like Tesco and Asda. The governments on both the county and nationl level are cutting services to rural communities as well. If the county closes a local school, then people with school age children have to move or drive their kids to school every day. If a local hospital is closed, the elderly are forced to find transport to ever more distant treatment facilities. I would say that most of Somerset is coping, but some counties, like Cornwall are really struggling.

The original reasons for the explosive rise of cities had to do with the need for labor to be need the factories. These tended to be near sources of water, both for transport and for power.

People went where the work was.

We now live in an environment where many people do jobs that require little in the way of expensive machinery. Indeed people frequently comment on how they can telecommute when the situation demands (say bad weather), so it is strange that the rural areas aren't seeing some growth.

Here in the US people are migrating to newly built exurbs mainly in the South and West while they are leaving towns in the midwest and northeast. The rationals given for this migration don't ring true. Many say things about the weather, but why is being locked inside with the air conditioning for four months a year better than being stuck inside during a snow storm?

I think it reflects a desire to start with a clean slate. There has always been a trend in the US to be pioneers and escape the past. Mechanized agriculture doesn't require many people. The situation for third world countries with subsistence agriculture is different. Here globalization and the shift to a money-based economy (needed to buy the accoutrements of modern civilization) are forcing peasants off the land.

The effect can be seen in the collapse of the Mexican rural farming sector as the country has been opened up to imports of corn from the US. This has caused a movement to the cities in Mexico as well as the surge in immigrants to the US. Everything is connected.

Policies not Politics
---- Daily Landscape

A fundamental problem with farming in Japan (and potentially in many other countries) is that under a system of international free trade, farming is just not a financially sustainable activity for the farmer.

This is definitely the case in Japan which has an extensive subsidy and tariff system to combat Chinese imports. (The South Koreans also have a similar system.)

This is all well and good, but it's another nail in the coffin. It's one thing to accuse the young of being "in thrall to the bright lights of the city" but when the alternative offered is to be, in effect, a strange kind of civil servant, shuffling papers to acquire subsidies with some hard physical labour and very long hours thrown in, why wouldn't they choose city life?

If economics really is the problem, than does anyone foresee a re-population of the countryside should agriculture become more economically rewarding?

Say oil prices make long-distance imports of bulk agricultural commodities too expensive, and imports of fresh fruits/vegetables impossible.   Furthermore, industrial mechanized agriculture goes out of style, either because it's too oil-dependent, or for ecological reasons.  All of a sudden, domestic agriculture, even in places like Japan, has a reason to exist, and there are jobs for people who will do it.  In this sort of situation, does anyone really think the countryside would be substantially re-populated?

I kind of doubt it.  I think the cultural/social factors are really, really strong.  Perhaps poor people would be imported to work on the farms.  But how many young people from the 80% of Americans who consider themselves "middle class", with dreams of upward mobility, college, etc., would choose to get into agriculture?