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Credit Pressure Filters Down To Muni Market - Bond Insurers' Exposure To Troubled Mortgages Ripples Through System

The $2.5 trillion market for tax-free municipal bonds, a popular investment for many individual investors, is the latest unlikely corner of Wall Street to be roiled by the nation's real-estate and credit-market woes.

(...)

In this case, the contagion revolves around the bond insurers, which are little known outside Wall Street and operate behind the scenes to provide insurance guarantees to issuers of municipal debt. If a city or hospital issuing a tax-free bond should struggle to pay, these bond insurers in some cases back them up.

The issue is that muni-bond insurers such as Ambac Financial Group Inc., CIFG Guaranty and Financial Guaranty Insurance Co. in recent years also have become backers of debt instruments holding now troubled mortgage securities. Because of that exposure, the insurers are under pressure from rating services to raise capital to cover potential losses on those securities or face downgrades.

MBIA, Ambac Downgrades May Cost Market $200 Billion

Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The crisis of confidence in bond insurers that bestow top credit ratings on debt sold by borrowers from the New York Yankees to Citigroup Inc. may cost investors as much as $200 billion.

The AAA ratings of MBIA Inc., Ambac Financial Group Inc. and their five smaller competitors are being reviewed by Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings. Without guarantees, $2.4 trillion of bonds may fall in value and some issuers would get shut out of the capital markets.

``We shudder to think of the ramifications,'' said Greg Peters, head of credit strategy at New York-based Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest U.S. securities firm by market value. ``You have politicians, taxpayers, municipalities, states. It just opens up a Pandora's box. That is a huge destabilizing force.''

For more than 20 years, the safety of insurance has eased the way for elementary schools, Wall Street banks and thousands of municipalities to sell debt with unquestioned credit quality. Now, mounting downgrades on insured bonds backed by assets such as mortgages are raising doubts about the stability of the guarantors. Armonk, New York-based MBIA, the world's largest, has a 28 percent probability of default, and Ambac's is 40 percent, prices of derivatives show.

MBIA fell $1.44, or 3.6 percent, to $38.37 in New York Stock Exchange Composite trading as of 12:10 p.m., and have dropped 47 percent year to date. Ambac's shares fell $1.33, or 4.4 percent, to $29.09, and have lost 67 percent year to date.

(...)

``The insurers can protect you from one unusual, idiosyncratic event, like a Hurricane Katrina,'' said Daniel Castro, chief credit officer of structured finance at GSC Group in New York, which oversees more than $24 billion of debt. ``What if you had 20 Hurricane Katrinas and everything is wiped out? That's what you have right now.''

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

The Case Against Bicycle Helmets And Legislation (Abstract)

The issue of bicycle helmets has been under discussion for about 20 years. Many aspects are involved - safety, health, environment, human rights, enforcement and costs. Enforced helmet laws have discouraged cycling and the health benefits of cycling are considered to outweigh the risks. With fewer cyclists due to legislation a key question is whether society benefits from such measures.

Bicycle helmet legislation in Victoria, Australia, resulted in a drop of 36% in the numbers cycling in Melbourne, where 42% wore helmets before legislation. This 36% drop represents more than half of those (58%) not wearing helmets. This result of discouraging people was in sharp contrast to other measures such as seat belts, which did not discourage driving.

Fatality data indicates a significant proportion of cyclists sustain serious injuries to other parts of the body than the head. For example, 63% sustained chest injuries and therefore they may not survive even if the head could be completely protected. In some cases injuries to the head are so severe that helmets are unable to prevent death. Fatality data comparing a six-year period before helmet legislation to after for both Australia and New Zealand and adjusted for the reduced cycling, shows that cyclists did not gain compared to pedestrians or other road users.

A series of tests are set for helmets and legislation to see if they provide any benefit. The test for legislation indicated that in health terms, helmet laws cause far greater harm than good. There is evidence that enforced helmet laws result in a loss involving cyclist safety, the environment, public health and quality of life.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

:The Daily Star: Internet Edition: Rescue goes on as toll crosses 2,000

Sunday, November 18, 2007 12:32 AM GMT+06:00
Still thousands missing; ships, aircrafts, copters join the search; hundreds of thousands homeless

 

The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)

BBC NEWS | Business | Lib Dems call for Rock takeover

The Liberal Democrats are calling for the government to take over control of ailing bank Northern Rock after its chief executive resigned.

Acting Lib Dem leader Vince Cable said a temporary government takeover was the best way to safeguard the £24bn of public money loaned to the bank.

But the Treasury has dismissed the idea of the government taking control of the bank at this stage.

(----)

'Least worst option'

Mr Cable told BBC News there were three options for the government - let Northern Rock go into receivership, seek a private buyer, or take it over itself.

He said the first option would be a "desperate measure", which would lead to the government losing billions, bank workers losing their jobs and the Northern Rock Foundation - the bank's charitable arm - being imperilled.

He said any private buyer would be looking for "a lot of public money", making a government takeover the "least worst" option and the "best way probably of guarding the vast amount of public money now tied up in the bank".

I have been a trusted user for over a week now. I think metavision is to be blamed for that...

Rien n'est gratuit en ce bas monde. Tout s'expie, le bien comme le mal, se paie tot ou tard. Le bien c'est beaucoup plus cher, forcement. Celine

The Norway Post : Invitation to world's seed banks

"We are launching a brand new seed portal and also inviting all of the world's seed banks to collaborate in a joint effort to secure genetic diversity in agriculture," says Operation Manager Ola Westengen with the Nordic Gene Bank/Svalbard Global Seed Vault.

The portal already contains detailed information on more than 800,000 seeds distributed amongst 12,600 seed samples from 288 types from 74 countries.

The Svalbard Global Seed Vault, which is currently being established in the permafrost in the mountains of Svalbard, is designed to store duplicates of seeds from seed collections from around the globe.

(---)

I read this strange thing in the paper today, and I would like you to comment on it.

Infrastructure: Big projects create a small fortune

[...]

Whether the world economy continues on its growth trajectory or falls victim to the U.S. subprime lending crisis, global population growth and expectations for better living standards are heightening demand for electricity, water and transportation, and other components of infrastructure.

A report published this year by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates that $53 trillion will be required for roads, railways, electricity transmission and distribution, telecommunications and water services over the next 25 years. Add investment for electricity generation, and the figure rises to $65 trillion, according to the report.

Of the $65 trillion, about half will be from filling growing needs in places like China, India and Latin America, according to Barrie Stevens, deputy director of the International Futures Program at the OECD. The other half will go to maintenance and reconfiguration in the developed world to avoid bottlenecks or power blackouts.

"If you look at the ports, there are queues and queues of ships getting into port in the United States and Asia," Stevens said. "If you look at the United Kingdom and try to commute, the trains are cram filled. In the OECD countries, there is the problem of decaying water pipes."

But with many governments unwilling to saddle taxpayers with the cost of these capital intensive projects, some are turning to the private sector to take some of the risks and reap the rewards.

What, what, what?!

infrastructure seems a natural thing to do for government. These projects are hugely capital intensive. That means the cost of capital is very important. That in turn means the total cost for the project, that is what it will cost for taxpayers/consumers, to a very large degree is dependent on the cost of capital. That cost will be far lower with state financing compared to corporate financing.

What's all the fuss about taxing? I'd rather pay €75 of tax than €100 of fees to a company.

For those who recognized the opportunity early, like Australia's Macquarie Bank, which dominates the field, structuring some of these assets for investment has proved to be a gold mine. As the Australian government tightened its budget and found it difficult to meet infrastructure expenses, it sold off airports and toll roads; Macquarie matched those assets with pension funds and investment funds, which it sold to investors.

Financial engineering instead of engineering engineering. And further, this "gold mine" has not created value by increasing efficiency. It has reduced efficiency and captured the calue from the public.

Infrastructure investments are an alternative asset class like private equity and hedge funds, experts argue, because they do not correlate to the stock and bond markets. Instead, investments like toll roads and water systems offer a steady, stable income stream that grow as economies expand. Factor in the monopoly status of many of these projects, and the expectation that the revenue grows with inflation, and you have the appearance of safe, solid long-term performance and protection from volatile economic cycles.

Gee, I can't really remember what my Economics book said about private monopolies, and neither do the IHT seem to. Anyone?

But that steady income stream provides another opportunity: for leverage or financial engineering. And that can be less safe for investors.

Since the mid-1990s, Macquarie, through its investment funds, has established ownership stakes or concessions in more than 100 infrastructure assets globally. Other Australian players, like Babcock & Brown, a global investment adviser for specialized funds, and Challenger Infrastructure, part of a financial services company, have also developed infrastructure investment funds. As the field grew, financial institutions like Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan Chase, 3i and Citigroup have entered the field.

As a result, some analysts say, there are too many players and too much money chasing too few assets, driving up prices.

As long as a year ago, Michael Wilkins, a senior credit analyst in London with Standard & Poor's, warned that "as a result of rampant demand, the infrastructure sector is suffering from the dual curse of overvaluation and excessive leverage - the classic symptom of a bubble, similar to the dot-com era."

Another bubble. How nice. Good it's not in any vital sectors.

Wait a minute...

[...]

In the United States the debate is particularly sharp. The repeal of the Public Utilities Holding Company Act in 2005 made it easier for private equity firms like KKR to buy TXU, a Texas utility, and for Macquarie to bid on Portland Energy, which it did last month.

The Public Utilities Holding Company Act had been in place since 1935, after more than 20 percent of U.S. utilities went into bankruptcy after being securitized by financial holding companies like the Insull Trust.

That's just great, isn't it? More and more people have come back to liking stuff to the 30's, as in "the real estate market has not been this bad since the depression."

Thank god highly leveraged, overvalued, bubbly, frothy, vital public utilities won't be... uh?

Many players expect the reins of government to continue to loosen.

Even better! And why is this?

At 3i, which introduced an infrastructure fund on the London Stock Exchange this year, Michael Queen, managing partner for infrastructure, predicted that financial woes in the United States would force governments to welcome private sector ownership.

"The fiscal deficit at the state and federal level will not disappear any time soon," he said, "and politicians are beginning to understand it is not just a financial issue, it is also a liability issue."

So the financial woes and the risks brought by repealing wise depression era Acts, as a new depression might be closing in, is exacerbated further by the very things that are bringing a possible depression closer. Boy am I depressed now.

Meanwhile, Queen said, 3i intended to be active in infrastructure projects in India, where the regulatory environment has already improved.

"This is going to be a major asset class," Queen said, "although it will not happen in a straight line."

And that's what it's all about, isn't it? A major asset class. How could anything be more important?

</rant>

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)

what I'm talking about. This comment is for Izzy and Ceebs (and all the other good folks who wished me well) who asked me to post when I was feeling better.

I was released from hospital yesterday afternoon and am now safely at home with my family.  I'm feeling much, much better.  I'll be on IV antibiotics here at the house for another week, and with a bit of luck that will take care of it.

Thanks to everyone for their kind words and support!

JR

"My True Religion Is Kindness" -- The Dalai Lama

You hijacked my diary and now you've hijacked my poll!!!

This is a clear abuse of power.  

Next time you go on vacation I am going to ride into here on a tank.  Grrrrr....

Come, my friends, 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world.

Study: Feminists are better mates

Supporters of equality for women also have stronger relationships, new research says.

Take a feminist out to dinner.

That's the advice of a social psychologist who concludes in a new study that feminists make better partners and have stronger romantic relationships.

Laurie Rudman of Rutgers University had found in earlier research that negative stereotypes of feminists--that they're unattractive, man-hating lesbians, in a nutshell--cause young adults to distance themselves from the "F-word" and tone down their demands for equality. A majority of college-age respondents agreed with such statements as "Most men would probably not want to date a feminist" and "Romance depends, in part, on men being allowed to be in charge."

Come, my friends, 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world.

BBC NEWS | World | Americas | Thousands march in US race rally

Thousands of people have marched to the Justice Department in Washington to call for stronger action against racially motivated crimes.

Civil rights leaders organised the demonstration following a series of racially charged incidents.

There have been several incidents of nooses being displayed - recalling racist lynchings in the southern US.

Black leaders say the noose incidents should be treated as hate crimes and the perpetrators prosecuted.

(---)

Demonstrators in Washington also said they were angry at a justice system that locks up many more blacks than whites.

About one in three black men spend time in prison, compared to one in 17 white men, according to Justice Department statistics.

(----)

Choose the Calif or the International petition.

http://www.stopbp-berkeley.org/petition.html


Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. --Charu Saxena.

The Norway Post : New tool against global warming?

The organic membrane is designed to be used in areas with temperatures above + 30 degrees Celsius.

The membrane has an antioxidant effect, it increases the albedo* of the soil and thus contributes to decrease in surface temperatures. Erosion control can also be achieved by using one of the products in this group.

The Rogaland-based company claims the membrane also increases surface temperatures in the cool regions of the earth, thus making plant establishment faster, crop yelds larger and with higher product quality.

The organic membrane also binds the soil particles so that the soil is stable, even at high rain intensities and strong wind.

*  Albedo is the scientific measure of the ability of an object to reflect or absorb radiated solar energy.  

don't know if anybody is still reading this, but with regards to site and document development.

have you come across Konwledge tree?

kt-dms.sourceforge.net

y leveraging an active and innovative open source community, KnowledgeTree provides an easy to use and production-ready enterprise document management solution for use by corporations, government institutions, medium to small business and many other organizations. KnowledgeTree's open source architecture allows organizations to easily customise and integrate their document management system with their existing infrastructure, providing a more flexible, cost-effective alternative to proprietary applications.

Fully commercially supported
Commercial editions of KnowledgeTree are fully supported, providing commercial users of KnowledgeTree with priority access to our experienced support and development engineers.

Feature rich and easy to use
The KnowledgeTree Commercial Editions feature set includes:

Easy to use web interface accessible from modern versions of Mozilla Firefox and Microsoft® Internet Explorer®
A central document repository with audited document content version control
Drag and drop access to the document repository from the Microsoft® Windows® desktop
Access to the document repository from within Microsoft® Office® applications
Persist Microsoft® Outlook® email messages and email attachments to the document repository
Scan documents directly into the KnowledgeTree repository and OCR document contents.
Powerful document metadata management and versioning
Sophisticated document authoring management and workflow
Full-text indexing technology allowing search within document contents
Powerful security group and role-based security model and integration with Microsoft Active Directory and LDAP servers
Supports international languages including iconographic languages such as Japanese, Korean, Simplified and Traditional Chinese
An easy to use Installer which installs and configures all required stack and indexing components, including certified versions of Apache, MySQL and PHP
Powerful activity reporting functionality
2 business day priority support provided via our online Customer Portal.

might be of interest I found it here:
http://www.opensourcecms.com
which is probably well known anyhoo.

I suppose that one good thing about the new IPCC report is that it has much shorter deadlines, so now politicians won't be able to hide as easily behind vague promises to do something in 15 or 20 years as they have in the past. The new recommendations include timelines--such as, end the growth of carbon emissions within seven years--that they fall within the electoral cycles of the people who will be in office when the deadline occurs.

I'm not really up on how long the maximum terms are for various countries, but in the U.S., whoever wins in 2008 will probably still be in office when the emissions time bell rings in 2014. It will be interesting to see how the political system reacts to such a short timeframe for forcing such a huge change in behavior.