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In story: Greek Crisis to Transform EU?

Re: Greek Crisis to Transform EU?
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I give it about another week - and then if there is no sign of banks opening and liquidity returning then Greece will have to go down the Eurious route - and then we are in an entirely new ballgame.  Perhaps it will require Greece to go down that route for the creditors to realize that their current game is up.  If so, it will be a sad reflection of their learning skills. It will be like Sunningdale for slow learners as the Good Friday Agreement was once described - an agreement, v, similar to the Sunningdale agreement but which was arrived 25 years and thousands of deaths later.

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: Greek Crisis to Transform EU?

Re: Greek Crisis to Transform EU?
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Well, according to the news, Merkel and Tsipras just talked on the phone and agreed on one point: Tsipras will make new proposals tomorrow at the European summit.

by Melanchthon on
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In story: Greek Crisis to Transform EU?

Re: Greek Crisis to Transform EU?
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We shall see. Perhaps I am too optimistic.  Perhaps it is all part of the pre-negotiation ritual of damping down expectations.  There is an understandable euphoria in Greece right now. I wouldn't worry too much about what down the line spokesmen have to say.  They have their  master's constituencies to keep sweet but are ultimately expendable if something else is agreed.

If I'm wrong we simply revert to plan B as mentioned by Krugman and described in my diary Greece: The next step; introducing the Euriou.  

The thing is, the Creditors aren't in a very strong negotiating position right now.  They risk losing everything if things stay as they are or if Greece is forced down the Euriou route.

Once Greece starts issuing Eurious, they lose almost all bargaining power.  They have a week to re-open the banks or else Greeks will have no choice but to go their own way, and then the creditors can sing for their supper.

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: Greek Crisis to Transform EU?

Re: Greek Crisis to Transform EU?
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Any negotiating style would probably have led to the same situation. However, Varoufakis's style certainly did not help. I know some on ET just love Vartoufakis as a rock star. But rock stars are not known for their negotiating skills...

Indeed, you don't facilitate a negotiation by lecturing your interlocutors or calling them terrorists. I had to negotiate with rogue employers and I didn't start by telling them they were vile exploiters, even when they were. And more recently, I had to negotiate with leaders of armed groups who had blood on their hands. I did not tell them they were murderers, which they were.

Besides, it is possible that Varoufakis did upset some people in the Greek government by speaking before Tsipras after the referendum...

by Melanchthon on
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In story: Greek Crisis to Transform EU?

Re: Greek Crisis to Transform EU?
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I don't think they do.

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on
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In story: Greek Crisis to Transform EU?

Re: Greek Crisis to Transform EU?
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This also means that it is now clear that any nation in the EU is at risk of Bank runs and capital controls, if a gouvernment is elected which does not agree with the general EU consensus.

I think this changesteh calculus of staying or not staying in the Euro quite a bit. The destruction of the means to transfer money by the ECB is a very serious act. I really wonderif the guys from Podemos and 5 Stars fully understand the impliciations of what is going on.

by rz on
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In story: Greek referendum aftermath open thread

Re: Greek referendum aftermath open thread
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All of it. Apparently the only fault here is the succession of Greek governments and their unwillingness to reform.

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on
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In story: Greek Crisis to Transform EU?

Re: Greek Crisis to Transform EU?
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From the Diary:
1. The ECB will provide more or less unlimited ELA support to enable the Greek banking system return to normality. If the solvency of a bank is at issue, the ESM will also do the job it is supposed to do.

This is not going to happen. The Banks are going to be closed indefinitly.

by rz on
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Why does Hollande need to concern itself with Podemos? Are they running in the French elections?

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on
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You don't have to love Syriza [...] to believe that European institutions have just been saved from their own worst instincts.
But you have to be naïve. This is just the beginning.

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on
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In story: Greek referendum aftermath open thread

Re: Greek referendum aftermath open thread
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Decision fucking theory? This is politics. And ugly politics at that.

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on
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In story: Greek Crisis to Transform EU?

Re: Greek Crisis to Transform EU?
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What are you talking about, Frank?

FastFT: Merkel sees no basis for new Greek negotiations (6 July)

"With regard to yesterday's decision by Greek citizens the pre-conditions for entering into negotiations over a new aid programme do not currently exist," said Steffen Seibert, her spokesman, even though he added that the door for talks was "always open".

Mr Seibert also dashed lingering hopes that Ms Merkel's visit today to French president Francois Hollande would result in new rescue proposals, reports Stefan Wagstyl Chief Germany Correspondent.

...

Martin Jäger, the finance ministry spokesman, was just as tough. The basis for any new negotiations was the ESM treaty, he said. His words imply there will be no shortcuts to striking a new deal and that any new agreement will have to meet the ESM's tightly-worded rules. These include two votes in the German parliament - one to authorise negotiations and the second to approve any agreed deal.

In other news, Martin Schulz wants the various summits today and tomorrow to discuss "humanitarian aid" to the Greek people, since "the banks will remain closed". As if that were some freak act of nature.

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on
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In story: Greek Crisis to Transform EU?

Re: Greek Crisis to Transform EU?
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Merkel succeed in re-uniting and re-invigorating the EU by making the preservation of basic human dignity and living standards a competence and responsibility of the EU?

I think Merkel is trying to do just that. The problem is that she belives that to 're-unite and re-invigorate the EU' we need a continant wide Thatcherite revolution.

by rz on
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In story: Greek referendum aftermath open thread

Re: Greek referendum aftermath open thread
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... second, mobilising all those EU instruments -- structural and cohesion funds, loans and so on -- that can help to revive the Greek economy and in turn lighten the country's debt burden in relation to gross domestic product ... [emphasis added]

As to how more loans in advance of debt relief could possibly lighten the debt burden ... note that is the debt burden that is "in relation to GDP", so surely if they are projected to be good loans with good impacts, why then, she'll be right, mate.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on
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In story: Greek referendum aftermath open thread

Re: Greek referendum aftermath open thread
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Where does he mention getting deeper into debt?

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on
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In story: Greek referendum aftermath open thread

Re: Greek referendum aftermath open thread
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It may not be the worst, but "help you get deeper into debt now, consider debt reductions at some time down the track, conditional on reforms being completed to our (nebulously defined) satisfaction" does not seem to me to be all that much different from what has been treated as a reasonable "compromise" by VSP(TM).

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on
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In story: Greek referendum aftermath open thread

Re: Greek referendum aftermath open thread
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I started writing a comment on this thread, but it became so long I had to publish it as a diary instead.  What is remarkable, from a negotiating point of view, is how easy it could be to arrive at a compromise acceptable to all sides.  It just requires a little bit of imagination.  I have put my suggestion of a likely outcome in the diary - its not one that everyone will be happy with - but its doesn't actually cross any red lines on either side.

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: Greek Crisis to Transform EU?

The Charter of Fundamental Rights
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For example:

EUR-Lex - 12007P - EN - EUR-Lex

Article 34

Social security and social assistance

1.   The Union recognises and respects the entitlement to social security benefits and social services providing protection in cases such as maternity, illness, industrial accidents, dependency or old age, and in the case of loss of employment, in accordance with the rules laid down by Union law and national laws and practices.

2.   Everyone residing and moving legally within the European Union is entitled to social security benefits and social advantages in accordance with Union law and national laws and practices.

3.   In order to combat social exclusion and poverty, the Union recognises and respects the right to social and housing assistance so as to ensure a decent existence for all those who lack sufficient resources, in accordance with the rules laid down by Union law and national laws and practices.

Article 35

Health care

Everyone has the right of access to preventive health care and the right to benefit from medical treatment under the conditions established by national laws and practices. A high level of human health protection shall be ensured in the definition and implementation of all the Union's policies and activities.

The articles say "in accordance with the rules laid down by Union law and national laws and practices", so the legal basis for EU competence has been established.

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: 6-7 July 2015

Piketty on Greece
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from th Indie UK:

German conservatives are destroying Europe with austerity


"This is neither a reason for France, nor Germany, and especially not for Europe, to be happy," he told German newspaper Zeit Online, when asked about the dominance of austerity in policymaking.

"I am much more afraid that the conservatives, especially in Germany, are about to destroy Europe and the European idea, all because of their appalling failure to remember history."

Mr Piketty said Germany's past history of having its debt forgiven by other nations should inform its approach to the current Greek crisis.



by Crazy Horse on
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In story: Greek referendum aftermath open thread

Re: Greek referendum aftermath open thread
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All of it?
While the first two paragraphs you quote clearly are, the last one seems a lot better than what has passed for wisdom in the EU of late.

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on
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In story: Greek referendum aftermath open thread

Re: Greek referendum aftermath open thread
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Neoliberalism won - even Delors accepts the logic of the Shock Doctrine.

Trouble is, it's hard to see the Euro as neolib compatible in the long run. Markets will begin to price Portuguese debt differentially. The Eurogroup will at first support the ECB in addressing this challenge. But there are plenty in Germany who will campaign against it. Then Bild will take up the issue of those lazy Portuguese - and then we're on the road to Pexit. The same story all over again.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on
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For some reason I can't get tweet embed codes from my browser, but see this from Paul Mason this morning: https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/617933884953464832

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on
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In story: Greek referendum aftermath open thread

Re: Greek referendum aftermath open thread
( / )
John Quiggin also put cross-posted this at Crooked Timber. The comments there are fairly interesting.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on
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In story: Greek referendum aftermath open thread

Re: Greek referendum aftermath open thread
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This, published on the morning of the referendum, is just appalling.

Jacques Delors: Greece and Europe must recognise stakes of Grexit (July 5, 2015)

... If Greece is to be spared this fate and escape the current crisis there must first and foremost be a complete change of outlook within the country itself. There must be a clear commitment to break with the habits of the past 40 years, and resist the temptation to blame other for Greece's woes. The government in Athens must also accept that its democratic legitimacy cannot, by its very nature, take precedence over the democratic legitimacy enjoyed by its European partners.

... We understand the impatience and concern of those partners, who are sick and tired of feeling that they are forever pouring their aid into a bottomless pit, reminiscent of the perforated Danaids water butt of classical mythology.

...

The EU must play its part to the full in that reconstruction process by offering Greece a comprehensive three-pronged plan. This should consist of offering Athens reasonable financial aid in order to allow it to rebuild its solvency in the short term; second, mobilising all those EU instruments -- structural and cohesion funds, loans and so on -- that can help to revive the Greek economy and in turn lighten the country's debt burden in relation to gross domestic product; and third, immediately undertake an reassessment of the weight of Greek debt and that of the other EU countries "under programmes" on condition that promised reforms are enacted.



by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on
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When is the post of head of the Greek central bank up for renewal?

by DoDo on
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In story: Greek referendum day open thread

Re: Greek referendum day open thread
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Worse than that, it's understood by legal acholars to be the spirit of the law. You just have to look at the last couple of ECJ opinions on cases brought against the ECB by Germans, even if the court found in favour of the ECB.

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on
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In story: Greek referendum day open thread

Re: Greek referendum day open thread
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No, austerity is now the official economic consensus, codified in law.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on
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In story: Greek referendum day open thread

Re: Greek referendum day open thread
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My understanding was that this 'austerity' package was supposed to only last two to three years, it now seems to stretch to infinity.
With a debt-brake constitutional amendment in Germany since 2009, and exported to most EU countries since? Fat chance.

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on
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In story: Greek referendum day open thread

Re: Greek referendum day open thread
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So, what to do about Germany?

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on
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In story: Greek referendum day open thread

Re: Greek referendum day open thread
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Syntagma on Friday night was the happiest crowd of nihilists I've seen in a long time.

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on
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News and Views

 6-7 July 2015

by DoDo - Jul 6, 32 comments

Your take on today's news media

 4-5 July 2015

by DoDo - Jul 4, 35 comments

Your take on today's news media

 Open Thread 29 June-5 July

by afew - Jun 29, 29 comments

What's in a week?

 Open Thread 22-28 June

by afew - Jun 22, 55 comments

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