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In story: Open Thread 1-9 October

Re: Open Thread 1-9 October
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I am relieved to see Scott Adams' take on the first debate. Even Mr Persuader cannot spin it better than the lazy "Clinton won on points...  but that does not matter".

What apparently matters is that Trump passed his gloriously low bar of "looking presidential ... and not scary" (no, really!), Hillary's looked more drugged (never mind sniffing!) and her smile was forced, artificial. No way she could have been genuinely amused hearing Trump talk about temperament, stamina!

I think that Trump did not pass the test of looking less scary (never mind presidential) as Hillary only had started to brand him as dishonest, utterly selfish in business and socially (and Trump himself rather obliged with "that's smart me... that's business"). And these new honesty bits appear to stick.

But who knows - the Universe might still be conspiring against her as she does not have that stamina.

by das monde on
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In story: Open Thread 1-9 October

Re: Open Thread 1-9 October
( / )
The "October Surprise" will change EVERYTHING ... put your feet up, pop the corn. Watch the Americans scatter.

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on
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In story: Open Thread 1-9 October

Re: Open Thread 1-9 October
( / )
Remember this?

European Tribune - Can Trump really win the White House?

Trumps really high negatives should prevent him from expanding his voters. Otoh, Clinton has really high negatives too.

What if their negatives drives turnout down and the election more resembles 2010 or 2014 then 2008 or 2012? Would Clinton still win?  

It's ok, I hardly remembered it and I wrote it.

I also wrote this:
European Tribune - Can Trump really win the White House?

First, the presidential winner in the electoral college tends to also have won the popular vote.

So a really crude calculation based on house and presidential elections 2008-2014 with house results (in million voters) for each party being plotted to turnout and a linear equation forced from those numbers, and presidential results (in million voters) noted to be on average 9% more then house results in years containing both, gives that for R to trump D participation in the presidential election needs to be lower then 48%.

And that became relevant when I saw this:

Americans Less Sure They'll Vote for President

PRINCETON, N.J. -- Amid the news frenzy leading up to the first general election debate of 2016, fewer U.S. adults rate themselves highly likely to vote for president than did so in September of each of the past four presidential election years. Sixty-nine percent of Americans currently rate their chances of voting a "10" on a 1-to-10 likelihood of voting scale. That is down from 76% in 2012 and 80% in 2008, the year with the highest turnout since 2000.

And the voter intent has sunk more with young and Democrat leaning voters, just like in my (again, very crude) model.

The relationship between 10 likelihood in September for voting and actually voting in November is actually pretty stable (for the years presented ie 2000-2012) at 0.692-0.726, so take an average of that, plug in the number saying they will vote now and you get... 49.5%!

So Clinton wins (or rather generic disliked Democrat beats generic disliked Republican), but not by a lot.

by fjallstrom on
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Had to read on wikipedia to grasp the factions. It looks like more of a personality clash plus different coalition propects.

2016 PSOE leadership crisis

Podemos leaders openly accused PSOE critics of staging "fraud" by attempting to remove Sánchez through "undemocratic means", with the final intention of putting an end to the deadlock by helping Rajoy to get re-elected.[91][92] Podemos' leader Pablo Iglesias described the PSOE's turmoil as "the most important crisis since the end of the civil war in the most important Spanish party of the past century".[1]

I hope the spanish can fill in the gaps.

by fjallstrom on
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I think we need a briefing on the Spanish situation.

Is it as simple, and as ugly, as : Grand Coalition vs Left Coalition?

by eurogreen on
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Ah, they got that one through. Yeah, expect more obstruction.
by fjallstrom on
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Paul Mason says it like it is.

The real lesson from Corbyn's victory? You can't hold back history | Paul Mason | Politics | The Guardian

As the result of the coup's failure, Labour's conference this week has a visible faultline running through it. People floating mysteriously between corporate fringe events, dressed in the sharp suits and shiny tights of the Blair-Brown era, are still there. But nobody really understands why.

The real lesson from Corbyn's victory? You can't hold back history | Paul Mason | Politics | The Guardian

But you cannot stop history. At some point, having been hijacked by the elite class, Labour was always either going to collapse - as it has done in Scotland - or revive. What we witnessed was both revival and survival. Labour's polls - in the teeth of a hostile press and active sabotage from within - may be low. But they are the highest of any socialist party in Europe.
by fjallstrom on
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Well at least some of those might not have voted. Still Purged voters seem to easily outnumber Smith voters...

Meanwhile the NEC changed its composition:

Jeremy Corbyn loses majority support of Labour NEC | Politics | The Guardian -


The Scottish Labour leader, Kezia Dugdale, will now join the committee as a full member and the Welsh first minister, Carwyn Jones, will also choose a representative.
Dugdale and Jones have both been critical of Corbyn. Giving them each the right to sit on, or nominate someone to sit on, the NEC meant Corbyn's allies lost their majority support on the committee, despite six leftwing candidates being elected to the executive this summer.

What a coincidence.

by generic on
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Two antagonistic nuclear powers in the most densely populated region? That is a must for the planet. </snark>
by das monde on
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Do it.
by fjallstrom on
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So I missed out on this worthwhile subthread on drones, which became an informative side-track in Frank's post. Vintage ET stuff. Should be a diary in its own rights... Shall I?
by Bjinse on
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In story: Brexit and free trade

Re: Brexit and free trade
( / )
by Melanchthon on
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In story: Brexit and free trade

Re: Brexit and free trade
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Leaving the European Union would cost British consumers 9 billion pounds ($13.2 billion) in annual additional import tariffs, World Trade Organization chief Roberto Azevedo said in an interview published by the Financial Times on Wednesday.

Britain's exports would be also burdened with 5.5 billion pounds of new tariffs in overseas markets, the paper said, and leaving the EU would require a full reboot of Britain's trade relations, akin to joining the WTO from scratch.

That would mean renegotiating the terms of trade with 161 WTO members, and losing the low-tariff or tariff-free access to 58 countries covered by 36 EU trade agreements.



by Melanchthon on
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In story: Brexit and free trade

Re: Brexit and free trade
( / )
Nissan demands Brexit compensation for new UK investment
Remarks made by Carlos Ghosn, Nissan's chief executive, reflect growing concern among global carmakers that Britain could be heading towards a so-called "hard Brexit", which would leave them paying tariffs to export UK-assembled cars to EU markets.

Nissan, which builds about a third of Britain's total car output at its plant in Sunderland, is due to decide early next year on where to build its next Qashqai sport utility vehicle.

...
Ghosn's ultimatum echoes concerns from fellow Japanese carmaker Toyota which said the imposition of duties as part of a Brexit deal would make running its English plant "very, very tough".



by Melanchthon on
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In story: Open Thread 1-9 October

Re: Open Thread 1-9 October
( / )
This brings back good memories of our petition against Blair:

Blair harboured hopes of top EU job amid Brown turmoil, says Campbell

In 2007, after he had quit as prime minister, there was speculation that Blair was angling for a different European post, as president of the European council. Brown was reported to have supported the idea. But there was opposition to Blair's potential candidacy from the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.


by Melanchthon on
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Maybe nuclear winter will cancel global warming?

by generic on
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Kashmir dispute: Pakistan calls emergency meeting after India's 'surgical strike' - CNN.com
"The Pakistan military can't betray to their domestic audience that they've allowed the Indians to actually cross the line of control... and there was no action against that," he said.

"On the Indian side, (Prime Minister Narendra) Modi needs to show his domestic constituents that he's taken aggressive action. This is something he promised before he got elected in 2014."

Yeah, no way this can go wrong.

by fjallstrom on
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Sliding into the abyss, smoothly or in startling jerks.

My head hurts and I am begining to suspect that Alf Hornborg is right when he claims that it is just hubris to think we will be able to right the ship. Then again, what else is there to do but try?

by fjallstrom on
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I'm currently ignoring whatever is happening in Pakistan/India because I don't have the mental bandwidth to deal with it.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on
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Perhaps it's because I've moved to a new place the past days, which has turned my brain into something like soup, but has the world really gone more mad again past week, or is that just me?
by Bjinse on
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It would almost certainly be a good thing for the EU.

For the UK... not so much.

- Jake

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on
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In story: Brexit and free trade

Re: Brexit and free trade
( / )
[No Shit, Sherlock!]

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on
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In story: Brexit and free trade

Re: Brexit and free trade
( / )
I think so, good job northern europe had such cloud free days

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on
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In story: Brexit and free trade

Re: Brexit and free trade
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Make no mistake, Britain is not a world-beating economy - FT Martin Wolf
Failings include low investment, inadequate basic education and the innumeracy of the elites

British economic policymakers confront big challenges. They have to manage departure from the EU with the minimum damage. They also need to make the UK economy far more dynamic. The latter cannot be achieved if they do not abandon the myth that Britain is already an economic success, albeit one choked by the dead hand of an over-regulated European economy.

Simon Tilford of the Centre for European Reform provides a far more realistic picture in his Brexit Britain. Measured at purchasing power parity, the rise in the UK's gross domestic product per head between 2000 and 2015 was smaller than in Germany, Spain and France. Over this period, the UK outperformed only Italy, among the EU's largest pre-2000 members. In 2015, the UK's GDP per head was lower relative to the average of the 15 pre-2000 EU members than in 2000: its GDP per head was a mere ninth within this group.

The UK also has the highest income inequality among these countries. Furthermore, notes Mr Tilford, UK real wages fell by 10 per cent between 2008 and 2014, before a tiny uptick in 2015, while German and French real wages rose. In 2015, only London and the South-East had higher GDP per head than the average of the EU-15 countries. Other UK regions were at or below that average. In all, it is hardly surprising so many UK voters feel left behind, as shown in the EU referendum.



by Melanchthon on
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In story: Brexit and free trade

Re: Brexit and free trade
( / )
They are doing new things, based on the same model: the government pays. Any actual weapons appear to be a coincidence.

Just the other year they finished their part in Neuron, the French-Swedish-Swiss-Spanish-Italian-Greek unmanned bomber that resulted in one single bomber. It appears to be halfway between UAV and AAV in that it is not directly controlled, but takes directions and then flies itself according to the directions.

According to Swedish authorities, it was never meant to result in any actual planes, but was purely 500 million euros spent for technological development. Apparently Spain, Italy and Greece also had money to spare in the years 2005-2015. Or maybe the Troika just didn't care as long as it did not go to anyone poor.

by fjallstrom on
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In story: Brexit and free trade

Re: Brexit and free trade
( / )
The problem is that for it to work, the rest of EU needs to agree that article 50 activations can be withdrawn. Which would be an excellent question for talks about talks, but we are not having those.
by fjallstrom on
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In story: Brexit and free trade

Re: Brexit and free trade
( / )
There are protocols for dealing with this sort of thing.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on
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In story: The Atrocity Election: A Ballardian Forecast

Re: The Atrocity Election: A Ballardian Forecast
( / )
Ah, Tati!  Good to see scenes from "Mon Oncle" and "Traffic" illustrating the song.

by gmoke on
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In story: Brexit and free trade

Re: Brexit and free trade
( / )
Maybe that's trivial but how would you deal with packetloss with one time pads? Try if the message makes sense with the next few thousand keys?

by generic on
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In story: Brexit and free trade

Re: Brexit and free trade
( / )
Short of suborning the hardware at the manufacturing stage, I don't see it.

It should be possible to have the drones talk to the control tower using only one-time pads generated as part of the pre-flight preparation (maybe the video feed would be encrypted less securely, but certainly the command channel doesn't need that big a pad). It should also be possible to airgap the control tower hard enough that you can't take over the control tower without compromising the physical location. (And if you can do that, you can also just blow it up.)

We're talking about an enclosed military facility, not a commercial operation where the computers need to talk to every Tom, Dick, and Harry who might potentially be a prospective customer.

I could see something like that happen early in the war, while the belligerents were still being sloppy from decades of fighting people who can't shoot back. But I don't see any Enigma/Bletchley Park type hacker arms race.

- Jake

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on
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News and Views

 19 - 30 September 2016

by Bjinse - Sep 20, 39 comments

Your take on today's news media

 12 - 18 September 2016

by Bjinse - Sep 12, 29 comments

Your take on today's news media

 Open Thread 1-9 October

by Bjinse - Sep 30, 11 comments

It's threads that counts. And I got threads.

 Open Thread 19 - 30 September

by Bjinse - Sep 20, 10 comments

Here's another nice thread you've gotten me into

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