Welcome to the new version of European Tribune. It's just a new layout, so everything should work as before - please report bugs here.

Recent Comments:

on top of that, virtually every law written by the UK parliament in the last 40 years has an EU component, Things are pointed at EU rules and EU court decisions. this all basically has to be redone. one estimate is that 10,000 laws need re-writing, which basically means parliament sitting and spending the next couple of decades doing nothing else, so not being involved in trade deals because they're busy trying to extract european legislation from housing law amongst thousand s of other things

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | Parent ]
In story: Stiglitz: Reform or Divorce in Europe

Re: Stiglitz: Reform or Divorce in Europe
( / )
I agree that a financial collapse is likely within six months or less. And I agree that it could destroy the EMU and the Euro, if not the EU and its existing institutions. Unless it is planned there will be chaos. That is where preparations for a controlled collapse are vital. And that is precisely what an alternative monetary union, even with only two continental members, Greece and Italy, would be key. Island members would join immediately and other continental EU members would come under immediate pressure to join. The economic advantages will be immense, and a SEURO union will provide a left-compatible alternative to the probable right wing dystopia that otherwise will likely come to pass. Once triggered the process would be one of massive political jujitsu driven by events and economic pressure.

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | Parent ]
I think I started reading a science fiction alternative universe book once where The City cared about the rest of the economy.  I stopped reading.  Too far-fetched.
by rifek on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | Parent ]
In story: Stiglitz: Reform or Divorce in Europe

Re: Stiglitz: Reform or Divorce in Europe
( / )
At this point, the only place a European-wide political movement could come from would be the far right, which would have to accommodate their nationalist positions to do so at all.  That wouldn't look pretty, just pretty ugly.
by rifek on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | Parent ]
Although, I wouldn't rule out the Kurds recognising that danger and organising a very strong attack to link their two groups.

Or at least organising a astrategic retreat from their western enclave to bolster the main one

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | Parent ]
In story: Stiglitz: Reform or Divorce in Europe

Re: Stiglitz: Reform or Divorce in Europe
( / )
Whule I'm not overly optimistic, it is too early to state that the shock of Brexit hasn't brought about a re-think.

And, yes, a peripheral states coalition could be a way to obtain major changes, including rewriting the treaties. A strong, Europe-wide political movement could certainly help convince some governments.

by Melanchthon on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | Parent ]
In story: Stiglitz: Reform or Divorce in Europe

Re: Stiglitz: Reform or Divorce in Europe
( / )
In this interview, he says that, unless major changes are implemented, the Eurozone collapse will happen. And, as I understand it, rather soon:

STIGLITZ: Italy could be the 'cataclysmic event' that leads to the fall of the eurozone

"That's going to be the end. What's going to happen is that there will be a definite consensus that Europe is not working. The diagnosis will be to shed the currency and keep the rest, or that Europe is not working and a broader rejection -- like in the UK.

"So my worry that this is precisely that kind of political event [something like Brexit] is that is what will be the catalyst for change."

Asked if he believed that the ongoing problems -- both politically and economically -- in Italy could trigger such an event, Stiglitz agreed, saying: "That is a big risk. Many people are now trying to work with Matteo Renzi [Italy's prime minister] to have him climb down from his commitment that he will resign if his referendum fails."



by Melanchthon on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | ]
In story: Open Thread 22-28 August

Re: Open Thread 22-28 August
( / )
That says a lot of things, many of which mesh closely with what is reported elsewhere.

One of the things is that US support was ending up in the hands of all kinds of people, including the IS.

That does not quite equate to "The CIA is supporting the IS."

by Zwackus on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | Parent ]
Hard to make sense of anything what goes on in Syria, but it seems the USA has decided to shift support away from the Kurds and more to the Turks, as the YPG continued to advance towards their goal of taking control of the entire Syria-Turkish border area - which is a much dreaded nightmare scenario in Ankara. Clearly, Erdogan has Biden's back now.

It's a nice 'you can fuck off now' after the YPG liberated Mabij from IS - at that time the USA was still supporting YPG, while they moved west across the Euphrates.

There lies more trouble ahead in case IS continues to crumble, which will increasingly lead to Russian-backed Assad forces bump upon US-backed forces, which, while they were meant to battle IS, were also busy carving out their own territories. I don't yet rule out that the shift of the US to Turkey is in advance to this, nor do I rule out that the Kurds have already been promised something in return (like Hasakah?) - though it's all speculation.

by Bjinse on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | Parent ]
Exactly 500 Years Ago, This Battle Changed the Middle East Forever | The National Interest
n the early sixteenth century the Ottoman Empire, having already conquered most of the Balkans, shifted its attention to the Middle East. The initial impetus for this was the influence of the rapidly expanding Safavid Persian Empire. The Safavid Empire originated in 1501 in what is today East Azerbaijan Province in northern Iran, and soon expanded to include much of Persia, Afghanistan and Iraq. It wielded enormous influence over many of the Turkish and Kurdish tribes of eastern Turkey, many of which were influenced by the Shia propaganda of the Safavids. In order to counter this enormously destabilizing influence on their eastern flank, the Ottomans moved to confront the Safavids directly. This led to the pivotal Battle of Chaldiran on August 23, 1514, which resulted in an Ottoman victory, aided by its superior artillery. Chaldiran cemented Ottoman rule over eastern Turkey and Mesopotamia and limited Safavid expansion mostly to Persia. This ultimately checked the expansion of Shia Islam and strengthened the association between Iranian national identity and Shia Islam. Sunni Islam, championed by the Ottomans, became permanently dominant throughout most of the rest of the region.
by Bjinse on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | Parent ]
In story: Sarkozy's auto-da-fe

Re: Sarkozy's auto-da-fe
( / )
Well if even social democrats like Hollande don't believe in social democracy any more, why shouldn't opportunist politicians like Sarkozy go after the growth market in votes which seems to be in the extreme right nationalist Le Pen wing of politics. At least they are passionate about what they believe in. The question is, though, whether they would vote for Sarkozy when they might as well vote for the real thing: Le Front Nationale...

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | ]
In story: 22 - 28 August 2016

Don't steal livestock in Missouri....
( / )
But most other kinds of theft are now only misdemeanours.
In an opinion that went largely unnoticed, the Missouri Supreme Court issued a ruling Tuesday that had the effect of making most stealing offenses no longer felonies thanks to an apparently inadvertent change to state law way back in 2002. The far-reaching decision sent criminal defense attorneys across the state scrambling.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | Parent ]
In story: Sarkozy's auto-da-fe

Re: Sarkozy's auto-da-fe
( / )
In the scenario I outlined Sarkozy could find the ground beneath his feet liquefying. Forming a new union might be his best choice for survival if the EMU is dissolving anyway, as with a financial collapse in Italy.

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | Parent ]
In story: Stiglitz: Reform or Divorce in Europe

Re: Stiglitz: Reform or Divorce in Europe
( / )
Which is why it's not going to happen.
by Bernard on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | Parent ]
In story: Sarkozy's auto-da-fe

Re: Sarkozy's auto-da-fe
( / )
Sarkozy cannot let go of the long time French politicians obsession to appear "as SeriousTM as the Germans" (because Germany = serious, whereas Southern Europe countries = feckless).

This obsession has been shared by the PS and the right wing (UDR/RPR/UMP/LR) alike, since at least Mitterrand and Helmut Kohl in the 80s. This includes fetishism for a strong currency, starting with the "franc fort" and now the Euro. And also appearing as the "strong man" in the French-German couple: that's the very definition of "most important leaders in Europe" for Sarko and his ilk.

by Bernard on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | Parent ]
In story: Sarkozy's auto-da-fe

Re: Sarkozy's auto-da-fe
( / )
Were Sarkozy again gain high office in France he might well push for France, Italy and Greece to form their own currency union and join the ACU. That would be the apotheosis of his Mediterranean strategy and then he would be conducting the Auto-da-fe of the leaders of the remaining existing EMU leaders and collapsing their strategy. It would also likely make him one of the most important leaders in Europe. Sow the wind, reap the whirlwind. Better Sarkozy than Junker, Orban, Tusk or any UK politician.  

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | ]
In story: Sarkozy's auto-da-fe

Re: Sarkozy's auto-da-fe
( / )
Indeed, mayors all other the Deep South have been given licence (with central government sanction) to bother Muslims, and these Nice guys/goons are going to make the most of it.
With Manuel Valls' approbation, indeed.

What I don't understand is how they persuaded the French government to implement it.
Triangulation: Valls believes that borrowing from the right's playbook will make him look "more presidential" (and drive centrists away from Sarkozy). Sarkozy believes that speaking the same language as the Front National will draw Le Pen's voters to him.
by Bernard on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | Parent ]
In story: Sarkozy's auto-da-fe

Re: Sarkozy's auto-da-fe
( / )
Nuance : that's the Nice municipal police, not the French national police. Yeah, you will think that's a distinction without a difference; nevertheless, in my opinion, the actual police probably would be smart enough to distinguish between a (banned) Burquini and a woman sitting on the beach with a perfectly ordinary headscarf.

Indeed, mayors all other the Deep South have been given licence (with central government sanction) to bother Muslims, and these Nice guys/goons are going to make the most of it.

This is a central part of Daesh's strategy to drive a wedge between European populations. What I don't understand is how they persuaded the French government to implement it.


by eurogreen on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | ]
In story: Open Thread 22-28 August

Re: Open Thread 22-28 August
( / )
Goodness. I was down that way last week - well, about an hour and a half away (Orvieto, Citta della Pieve). I wish I had thought of dropping in on Melo.

by eurogreen on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | Parent ]
Well, you only have to look at Trump's behaviour generally with regard to moneymaking and you understand that money does not flow from his campaign anywhere but his own wallet

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | Parent ]
In story: Open Thread 22-28 August

Re: Open Thread 22-28 August
( / )
Ah, melo has posted on FB that he's ok and his house is undamaged as he's about an hour and a half away from the epicentre.

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | Parent ]
In story: Stiglitz: Reform or Divorce in Europe

Re: Stiglitz: Reform or Divorce in Europe
( / )
It seems to me the most feasible task is to save as much as possible of the EU itself. The most feasible path to such an outcome would be for Italy to join with Portugal Greece and Spain and simply declare their own version of EURO, a SEURO, with their own SECB. They should invite any and all existing EMU members who wish to join their monetary union which would be run along lines appropriate to the needs and conditions of the members, including some form of shared unemployment insurance, retirement income and health care, which would immediately provide an internal recycling program, and have monetary policies helpful to generating growth in all member states.

If need be such a union could start with just Italy, Greece, Cyprus and Malta. They could join payments clearing systems already in existence but separate from the BIS, such as the existing ACU. Members of such a SEUR union would almost immediately experience a great improvement in their terms of trade and find their products very competitively prices, especially with their EU counter-parties. New SEURO members would have to just act, regardless of treaty obligations, asserting their sovereignty.

I believe that such action would quickly lead to many other EU members coming under great pressure to join the SEURO and expose the leaders of the remaining EU members as servants of Germany and/or elite interests in total disregard for the needs of the citizens.    

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | ]
In story: Open Thread 22-28 August

Re: Open Thread 22-28 August
( / )
Or at least had, according to Hersh source here:

Seymour M. Hersh · Military to Military · LRB 7 January 2016

A former senior adviser to the Joint Chiefs told me that the document was an `all-source' appraisal, drawing on information from signals, satellite and human intelligence, and took a dim view of the Obama administration's insistence on continuing to finance and arm the so-called moderate rebel groups. By then, the CIA had been conspiring for more than a year with allies in the UK, Saudi Arabia and Qatar to ship guns and goods - to be used for the overthrow of Assad - from Libya, via Turkey, into Syria. The new intelligence estimate singled out Turkey as a major impediment to Obama's Syria policy. The document showed, the adviser said, `that what was started as a covert US programme to arm and support the moderate rebels fighting Assad had been co-opted by Turkey, and had morphed into an across-the-board technical, arms and logistical programme for all of the opposition, including Jabhat al-Nusra and Islamic State. The so-called moderates had evaporated and the Free Syrian Army was a rump group stationed at an airbase in Turkey.' The assessment was bleak: there was no viable `moderate' opposition to Assad, and the US was arming extremists.
by fjallstrom on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | Parent ]
In story: Open Thread 22-28 August

Re: Open Thread 22-28 August
( / )
IS has CIA support?

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | Parent ]
In story: Open Thread 22-28 August

Re: Open Thread 22-28 August
( / )
Good question.

I think what is happening is a result of the gradual decline of IS. As IS (with Gulf and probably CIA, but no longer Turkish, support) goes down and the war in western Syria between the Syrian government (with Russian support) and the Al-Nusra dominated coalition (with de facto US support) there goes back and forth over Aleppo, Rojava (the kurds) are increasing territory (with US support).

That means Rojava is no longer constrained by having IS pose a deadly threat and can pursue the long-term goal of controlling a continuous territory. Which conflicts with their de-facto alliance with the Syrian government. And Turkey's interest.

I think it is unsound strategy for Rojava to attack Syrian government held areas before they at least have linked up their own areas, but what do I know? And US probably supports that. Or at least a US faction, because as Seymour Hersh has made clear CIA and Pentagon has conflicting goals in the war. And Rojava probably has its factions too.

by fjallstrom on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | Parent ]
In story: Stiglitz: Reform or Divorce in Europe

Re: Stiglitz: Reform or Divorce in Europe
( / )
Indeed, Stiglitz does not address all the issues of a broad European political reform program, although his proposals include several features of a fiscal union. His concerns are more short-term: he just underlines the fact that, if not radically changed, the current economic and fiscal rules lead to the collapse of the Eurozone and of the EU. And he suggests some changes to avoid that, what I see as a prerequisite to a further deepening of the European Union. And he points to the lack of leadership, too.

So, the main question is: how to bring about change in Europe? It is the purpose of DiEM25

by Melanchthon on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | Parent ]
Did Donald Trump make donations for flood relief in Louisiana? Here's what we know. - WaPo
Trump promised a $100,000 donation to Greenwell Springs Baptist Church, which lies to the northeast of Baton Rouge, in a zone affected by floods. Trump had visited the church on Friday and helped hand out supplies for a few moments as cameras rolled.

That church's interim pastor is Anthony Perkins, who is also president of the Family Research Council -- a powerful and politically active Christian conservative group that condemns abortion, homosexuality and what it calls "transgenderism." In recent days, the Baptist church has organized volunteers to help clean out flood-damaged homes and has offered hot meals and supplies to those affected.

Perkins said Tuesday that Trump's gift had not yet been paid.


Oh, and the French media (well, France24) is also parroting the line "Obama is heavily criticized for not visiting Louisiana earlier", this, despite the fact that LA Governor specifically asked the WH to delay any visit, due to the police and firefighters who were still busy rescuing people.
by Bernard on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | Parent ]
In story: Open Thread 22-28 August

Re: Er ist wieder da
( / )
jeez, as if France hasn't suffered enough?

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | Parent ]
In story: Open Thread 22-28 August

Re: Open Thread 22-28 August
( / )
Anybody got any news from our Italian peeps? Are they ok?

melo, di gondi, rg?

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | ]
In story: Open Thread 22-28 August

Re: Open Thread 22-28 August
( / )
Who knows? The propaganda fog on Syria is so thick I can't make any sense of it at all.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on
[ Read Story | Read Comment | Parent ]

News and Views

 22 - 28 August 2016

by Bjinse - Aug 22, 34 comments

Your take on today's news media

 15 - 21 August 2016

by Bjinse - Aug 15, 16 comments

Your take on today's news media

 Open Thread 22-28 August

by Bjinse - Aug 21, 14 comments

The greatest thing you’ll ever learn is just to thread

 Open Thread 15-21 August

by Bjinse - Aug 15, 13 comments

I coulda been a thread

Occasional Series
Click for full list