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In story: 4-5 June 2015

Re: Where from here?
( / )
I have no time to volunteer, so perhaps a BYON is the way forward?

I can see an argument that says no need to make Open Threads unless the main thread of the day has become too big?

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on
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That might be the feeling if you dig into the comments, but from the main pages alone, Daily Kos is not at all like you describe.
by Zwackus on
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In fairness DKOS tends to support the progressive end of the Dem spectrum more - Obama, Warren, Sanders - which is about as left-wing as you can get in the US without falling off the mainstream 2 party system.   they may be centre right in European terms, but you can only judge people in their context.

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: The case for Austerity

Re: The case for Austerity
( / )
What Greece Could Do | J. W. Mason

On the one hand, the direct economic consequences of default are probably nil. (Recall that Greece in some sense already defaulted, less than five years ago.) Even if default resulted in a complete loss of access to foreign credit, Greece today has neither a trade deficit nor a primary fiscal deficit to be financed. And with respect to the fiscal deficit, if the Greek central bank behaved like central banks in other developed countries, financing a deficit domestically would not be a problem. And with respect to the external balance, the evidence, both historical and contemporary, suggests that financial markets do not in fact punish defaulters. (And why should they? -- the extinction of unserviceable debt almost by definition makes a government a better credit risk post-default, and capitalists are no more capable of putting principle ahead of profit in this case than in others). The costs of default, rather, are the punishment imposed by the creditors, in this case by the ECB. The actual cost of default is being paid already -- in the form of shuttered Greek banks, the result of the refusal of the Bank of Greece to extend them the liquidity they need to honor depositors' withdrawal requests. [1]

(2) On the other hand, Greece's dependence on its official creditors is not, as most people imagine, simply the result of an unwillingness of the private sector to hold Greek government debt, but also of the ECB's decision to forbid -- on what authority, I don't know -- the Greek government from issuing more short-term debt. [2] This although Greek T-bills, held in large part by the private sector, currently carry interest rates between 2 and 3 percent -- half what Greece is being charged by the ECB. And of course, it's not so many years since other European countries were facing fiscal crises -- in 2011-2012 rates on Portugal's sovereign debt hit 14 percent, Ireland's 12, and Spain and Italy were over 7 percent and headed upwards. At these rates these countries' debt ratios -- not much lower than Greece's -- would have ballooned out of control and they also would have faced default. Why didn't that happen? Not because of fiscal surpluses, delivered through brutal austerity -- fiscal adjustments in those countries were all much milder than in Greece. Rather, because the ECB intervened to support their sovereign debt markets, and announced an open-ended willingness to do "whatever it takes" to preserve their ability to borrow within the euro system. This public commitment was sufficient to convince private investors to hold these countries' debt, at rates not much above Germany's. Needless to say, no similar commitment has been made for Greek sovereign debt. Quite the opposite.

So to both questions -- why is failure to reach agreement with its official creditors so devastating for Greece; and why is the Greek government in hock to those creditors in the first place? -- the answer is, the policies of the central bank. And specifically its refusal to fulfill the normally overriding duties of a central bank, stabilization of the banking system and of the market for government debt, a refusal in the service of a political agenda. The problem so posed, the solution is clear: Greece must regain control of its central bank.

Now, most people assume this means it must leave the euro and (re)introduce its own currency. I don't think this is necessarily the case. It's not widely realized, but the old national central banks did not cease to exist when the euro was created.



by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on
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In story: Greek referendum day open thread

Re: Greek referendum day open thread
( / )
fredouil:
In any case Syriza troubles will be nothing compared to EU's ones.

Yes, if you owe the banks a few bucks it's your problem. If you owe billions it's the bank's problem.

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on
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In story: The case for Austerity

Re: The case for Austerity
( / )
Tea with FT: Europe, you want the truth? It was not the euro but bank regulators who did Greece in.

Sir, Gideon Rachman writes: "the link between the EU and prosperity will have been ruptured... it is not just that the EU has failed to deliver on its promises of prosperity and unity. By locking Greece and other EU countries into a failed economic experiment -- the euro -- it is now actively destroying wealth, stability and European solidarity". "Europe's dream is dying in Greece" June 30.
With my Op-Ed of November 1998 "Burning the Bridges in Europe" I can evidence having warned as clearly and as much as anyone about the euro... and so I could be writing here "I told you so".
But no, I assure you that the real failed economic experiment that has created the current crisis was not the euro; it is the current bank regulations.
Basel II regulations of June 2004, because of how Greece was rated A+ to A- between November 2004 and January 2009, allowed banks to lend to Greece leveraging their equity more than 60 to 1. The capital (equity) requirement was a meager 1.6 percent (the basic 8% times a 20% risk-weight).
And so of course the Greek government was doomed to take on too much public debt. What Greek politician/bureaucrat would have been able to resists the offers of loans; and what banks would resist the temptation to offer loans to Greece, in order to earn fabulous expected risk-adjusted returns on their equity?
And let us be sincere, any bank lending to a Greek government of those of lately, has de facto waived his right to be repaid... even if he was tricked into doing so by its own regulator.
What would then have happened if there had been no Euro, and Greece had borrowed Dollars, Pounds or Deutsche Marks? The ensuing haircuts would be direct, or indirect by means of Drachma devaluations. Yes the crisis resolutions could perhaps been less traumatic but the crisis would still have happened.
Get any European country to use its own currency, but keep current distortions of bank credit in place, and they are still all doomed! If somebody needs to apologize to Europe, well that is the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision.
@PerKurowski


PS. European citizens, beware of the Basel Committee's bank regulators bearing gifts to your government bureaucrats



by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on
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HTML is also time consumming: the time you spend to ensure that your syntax is correct, however short it may seem to the trained eye, feels longer if you just plan to put a quick post on a thread before moving on.

by Xavier in Paris on
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I agree about this basic flaw in the dkos philosophy, and Markos is far from perfect.
However the site still attracts many intelligent, funny commenters, and is a mine of knowledge and good writing with a S/N ration of around 50%, we can certainly aim higher. My point was if we want eyeballs it will prolly turn into multiple bar brawls as well as more points of view.
Also anyone who said "gfy" would be auto-banned,  (unlike here!)

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on
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In story: The new Utopia

Re: The new Utopia
( / )
RE: AI - Advances in it follows from better electronics, better math and our general understanding of cognition.

All of which are immensely valuable in their own right, and will continue to be pursued as long as there are still living humans. Not developing AI is thus not a choice which is on the table. It's going to happen, and mostly I just hope that whoever gets there first gets it right, or at least, gets it wrong in a way that doesn't end the world.

by Thomas on
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In story: Greek referendum day open thread

Re: Greek referendum day open thread
( / )
it would be quite surprising if the Yes does not have a strong lead.

In any case Syriza troubles will be nothing compared to EU's ones.

I believed, EU would manage to survive few more years sacrificing one more generation of its youth but not any more, end of this nightmare could be near pretty fast.

France's large youth population will be the big winner of Euro's end ( Germany's DM would then reach fair value at 2 USD & 2 Francs, stopping the current desindustrialisation), especially is this posted workers insanity stop too.

by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on
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Thanks for stepping in Bernard. Merci.

by Crazy Horse on
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Airbus signs deal for second plant in China - BBC News

Airbus has signed a deal for its second factory in China as it expands further its growing relationship with the world's second-largest economy.

The new cabin-completion factory for A330 jetliners is worth a reported €150m ($166.3m; £106.5m) and is aimed at attracting new orders for Airbus.

The plant will be built alongside an existing site in the city of Tianjin.

The signing on Thursday was witnessed by China's Prime Minister Li Keqiang at Airbus's headquarters in France.

Earlier this week, China signed a deal for 45 new Airbus planes worth more than $11bn.

by Bernard on
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Eurozone economic growth speeds up - BBC News

Eurozone business activity rose at its fastest pace in four years in June, boosted by higher spending by consumers and businesses, a survey has indicated.

The final Markit composite eurozone Purchasing Manages' Index (PMI), which combines manufacturing and services activity, rose to 54.2, its highest reading since May 2011.

Any reading above 50 indicates growth, while below 50 points to contraction.

Markit said the data pointed to second-quarter economic growth of 0.4%.

It comes despite concerns over the possibility of a messy Greek exit from the euro.

Paul Krugman in 2014:

To use an analogy I've used before, if I keep hitting myself in the head with a baseball bat, and then I stop, I will start to feel better; this doesn't mean that hitting yourself in the head with a baseball bat is a good thing.
by Bernard on
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In story: 4-5 June 2015

Re: Living off the Planet
( / )
B.C. wildfires: 2 communities declare states of emergency | B.C. wildfires | Can

PORT HARDY, B.C. -- Dozens of wildfires burning across British Columbia are forcing residents from their homes, with two communities declaring states of emergency.

Port Hardy Mayor Hank Bood said a state of emergency was issued Saturday morning after a 16-hectare fire caused the evacuation of about 100 residences.

"We're hopeful, but it's still a very volatile situation," he said.

[...]

The fire in Port Hardy is extremely unusual, said Bood, as it typically has a wet climate but has not had rain in two months.

by Bernard on
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In story: 4-5 June 2015

Re: Living off the Planet
( / )
Saskatchewan wildfires force nearly 8,000 people out of homes - Saskatchewan - CBC News
  • 7,900 people ordered out of their homes
  • Armed Forced called in to help evacuees
  • Up to 5,000 people headed to refuge in Alta.

The military has been called in to help care for 7,900 people from a northern Saskatchewan community that includes the province's largest First Nation, as a rash of wildfires prompts a massive evacuation.

Up to 5,000 of the evacuees will be taken hundreds of kilometres away to a refuge in Cold Lake, Alta., staffed by the Canadian Forces and the Red Cross.

After the wildfires crossed fail-safe lines Saturday, coming within eight kilometres of the community of La Ronge, the provincial government and the Lac La Ronge Indian Band began evacuating out 7,900 residents remaining in the area.

by Bernard on
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In story: 4-5 June 2015

Re: Living on the Planet
( / )
Tour de France: Dennis defies heat to set record in opener | Sports | DW.COM | 04.07.2015

The mercury soared well over 30 degrees Celsius in the Netherlands, where this year's Tour kicked off with a 13.8 kilometer time trial. The only thing hotter than the asphalt was Rohan Dennis.

The Australian covered the stretch in 14 minutes, 56 seconds. His average speed was 55.446 kilometers an hour - that broke a record that had stood since 1994.

"I've broken a dry spell of wins and what a way to do it," said Dennis, an Olympic silver medallist in the team pursuit. "I left it all out there. I went off harder than what I thought I should have and I came back harder than what I thought I could."

Dennis finished five and six seconds ahead of fellow time-trial specialists Tony Martin of Germany and Fabian Cancellera of Switzerland respectively. Martin, in particular, was disappointed by his failure to achieve his first-ever yellow jersey.

"The heat just killed me," he told reporters. "I just didn't have any strength on the long straight stretches, which are usually my forté."

by Bernard on
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Signs of progress in Iran nuclear talks ahead of deadline | News | DW.COM | 04.07.2015

Iran continued marathon talks with the United States, Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia in Vienna on Saturday in an attempt to resolve a 13-year standoff over Tehran's nuclear program.

The negotiations aim to finalize a deal that would see Iran curb its uranium enrichment capacity in return for relief from EU, US and UN economic sanctions.

Diplomats close to the negotiations told news agencies they had reached tentative agreement on a mechanism for suspending US and EU sanctions, but that the six powers had not yet agreed on a UN Security Council resolution to lift UN sanctions.

"We still haven't sorted a Security Council resolution," a diplomat told Reuters. "We don't have Iran on board yet."

An Iranian official said there were "still differences which are being discussed."

by Bernard on
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In story: 4-5 June 2015

Re: Living on the Planet
( / )
France celebrates listing of Champagne and Burgundy as UNESCO heritage sites | News | DW.COM | 05.07.2015

The UNESCO World Heritage Committee meeting in Bonn took its decision on Saturday in a double victory for French wine.

A World Heritage Site is a place that is listed by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) as being of special cultural or natural significance.

UNESCO said the champagne's World Heritage status includes "the places sparkling wine was developed using a second fermentation method in the bottle from the beginning of the 17th century until its early industrialization in the 19th century."

by Bernard on
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In story: Greek referendum day open thread

Re: Greek referendum day open thread
( / )
I think this is a really dangerous time for Syriza as a party.
The referendum is going to be very close and I can see either result fracturing the party in two.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on
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Wikileaks: NSA spied on Brazilian officials and business figures | News | DW.COM | 04.07.2015

Whistleblowing organization Wikileaks published on Saturday a list of 29 Brazilian government phone numbers monitored by the US National Security Agency (NSA).

"Our publication today shows the US has a long way to go to prove its dragnet surveillance on 'friendly' governments is over," said a statement from Wikileaks founder Julian Assange.

Saturday's publication comes on the heels of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff's official state visit to meet with American President Barack Obama earlier this week.

Rousseff's trip on June 30 was the Brazilian president's first to the US after her first scheduled trip was cancelled in 2013 due to similar revelations that the NSA had been spying on her and other Brazilian officials.

Note: EU citizens can travel to Brazil without a visa, however US (and Canadian) citizens must get a visa at a Brazilian consulate prior to travel.

by Bernard on
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Japan joins US-Australia war games in NT and Queensland amid China dispute | Australia news | The Guardian

The US and Australia kicked off a massive joint biennial military exercise on Sunday, with Japan taking part for the first time as tensions with China over territorial rows loom over the drills.

The two-week "Talisman Sabre" exercise in the Northern Territory and Queensland involves 30,000 personnel from the US and Australia practising operations at sea, in the air and on land.

About 40 personnel from Japan's army - the Ground Self-Defense Force (JGSDF) - will join the American contingent, while more than 500 troops from New Zealand are also involved in the exercise, which concludes on July 21.

"It is a very, very important alliance," the prime minister, Tony Abbott, said on Friday in Sydney on board the USS Blue Ridge, which is taking part in the exercise, referring to Australia-US ties.

"It's a very important relationship and right now we are facing quite significant challenges in many parts of the world, but particularly in the Middle East."

The war games, being held for the sixth time, come as China flexes its strategic and economic muscle in the region.

by Bernard on
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Tunisia beach attack: local heroes now face unemployment | World news | The Guardian

There will be no medals for the Tunisian beach crews who threw themselves in the way of bullets in the bloody Sousse tourist massacre. In fact, by next week many of them will have no jobs.

"In this forest Tunisia is the only flower of democracy. And the terrorists want to cut this flower." Habib Daguib

In the aftermath of the slaughter of 38 tourists at the Imperial Marhaba hotel have come tales of valour by waiters, lifeguards and men whose normal job is renting out water skis and plastic bananas. These men braved bullets and terror to confront gunman Seifeddine Rezgui.

Their reward, with hotels in the area emptying fast, is likely to be unemployment in a country already struggling with a depressed economy.

by Bernard on
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I am not a regular on newsroom, and my presence on ET tends to be a bit spasmodic for a variety of real world reasons, but I really appreciate AFEW's many contributions here, and particularly his role as editor.

I wish people would grow up and not use personal insults here, and, failing that, just accept an editors ruling on the matter. and move on. We don't have the right to expect any volunteer to accept grief on an ongoing basis.

I hope Afew reconsiders, and if there is any repetition of said behavior, that he just shuts down that conversation or offending account for a couple of days. The standards required here have been published, and it is an editors job to enforce them.  Anyone who doesn't like that has other options.

We have already lost one long term contributor this week because he took exception to a personal insult, we cannot afford to lose an active editor as well. EOM.

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: Greek referendum day open thread

Re: Greek referendum day open thread
( / )
Indeed. 40 years of TINA brainwashing is a hard flow to swim against...

As I mentioned before, the parallel between Syriza and the Popular Front in 1936 France is striking. I hope that Syriza will be rather longer-lived.

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on
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In story: Greek referendum day open thread

Re: Greek referendum day open thread
( / )
The comments below however are pretty uniformly depressing.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on
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In story: Greek referendum day open thread

Re: Greek referendum day open thread
( / )
Interfluidity: Greece (4 July 2015)
It is difficult to overstate how deeply Europe's leaders betrayed the ideals of European integration in their handing of the Greek crisis. The first and most fundamental goal of European integration was to blur the lines of national feeling and interest through commerce and interdependence, in order to prevent the fractures along ethnonational lines that made a charnel house of the continent, twice. That is the first thing, the main rule, that anyone who claims to represent the European project must abide: We solve problems as Europeans together, not as nations in conflict. Note that in the tale as told so far, there really was no meaningful national dimension. Regulatory mistakes and agency issues within banks encouraged poor credit decisions. Spanish banks lent into overpriced real estate, and German banks lent to a state they knew to be weak. Current account imbalances within the Eurozone -- persistent and unlikely to reverse without policy attention -- implied as a matter of arithmetic that there would be loan flows on a scale that might encourage a certain indifference to credit quality. These were European problems, not national problems. But they were European problems that festered while the continent's leaders gloated and took credit for a phantom prosperity. When the levee broke, instead of acknowledging errors and working to address them as a community, Europe's elites -- its politicians and civil servants, its bankers and financiers -- deflected the blame in the worst possible way. They turned a systemic problem of financial architecture into a dispute between European nations. They brought back the very ghosts their predecessors spent half a century trying to dispell. Shame. Shame. Shame. Shame.

Until the financial crisis, people like, well, me, were of two minds about the EU's famous "democracy deficit". On the one hand, I believe that good governance requires accountability to and participation of the broad public. On the other hand, before the crisis, I was willing to cut the Euro-elite a lot of slack. I'm an American born in 1970, but my life is largely framed and circumscribed by events in Europe during the Second World War. I grew up on a diet of "never again". I am writing these words from my grandfather's villa on the Romanian Black Sea, which my mother worked doggedly to recover in an act of sheer vengeance for what this continent's history did to her father. I was inclined to support Europe's democratic fudges when they were about diminishing and diffusing the still palpable possibility here of reversion to ethnonational conflict. To see European institutions deployed precisely and with great force in the service polarization across national borders has radicalized and made a populist of me (as have analogous betrayals among the political leadership of my own country). If I were Greek, I would surely be a nationalist now.

...

I think the explanation is quite simple, though. Having recast a crisis caused by a combustible mix of regulatory failure and elite venality into a morality play about profligate Greeks who must be punished, Eurocrats are now engaged in what might be described as "loan-shark theater". They are putting on a show for the electorates they inflamed in order to preserve their own prestige. The show must go on.

There's a lot more quotable in the piece. Go read it.

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on
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In story: The new Utopia

Re: The new Utopia
( / )
Yes, yes, yes.

One of the reasons that people have been able to say that the left has no ideas (aside from self-interested mendacity and spite) is that the vision of a better society has withered on the vine in too many walks of life.  In the American context, the leftist dream most common was "everybody has an equal chance to be a middle class professional," and by the 60's it seemed like too many people were willing to declare mission accomplished.  Obviously it wasn't, but things were close enough - for already affluent white people at any rate.  The focus shifted to making this dream of college and professionalism open to women and minorities.  These are highly worthy and valuable goals, in and of themselves, and revolutionary in their own way.

But for a lot of white people, it came to seem like the left had nothing to offer.  Mission accomplished ten years ago is hardly a compelling campaign slogan, after all.

The problem is, once there are enough of them, college educated professionals are just another form of proletariat, with nothing to sell but their knowledge and their labor.  Being highly skilled and highly productive does not save you from being coerced by the power of capital into working 70 hours a week as a salaried employee.

It may now be the time when a new generation of professional-level proles are willing to listen to the true complaint against the wealthy - they monopolize everything to beggar everyone, for no purpose but their own perverse sadistic satisfaction.  The only way to end this is to end their existence as a class, and to reorganize work and wealth and property so as to minimize overproduction and maximize individual freedom of choice and freedom of time.

A truly ambitious energy program needs to be taken up as soon as possible, and a series of truly ambitious ecological balancing and restoration projects are also pressing - reforestation, habitat recreation, wetlands expansion, fresh water drainage restoration, coastal cleanup, and ocean cleanup. These are concrete goals that are compelling in their own right, and tying them to the revolutionary message, and showing how they are better and more easily accomplished without paying blood tribute to the owners can only help the cause.

An ambitious space program, though near and dear to my heart, has to take a backseat to preserving the Earth as a functional ecosphere.  And AI is so terrifying that I'm not sure it's worth supporting or pursuing in any form.

by Zwackus on
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afew resigning as editor, and DoDo pointing out that this means that the Newsroom cannot continue in its previous form, ...

... the status quo ante is not an option.

The daily or two-daily Newsroom placed the European Tribune in one class of blog.

A pure Stone Soup Newsroom is unlikely to work, without heavier traffic than the Eurotrib currently receives. The dynamic is traffic is higher some days, lower other days, some days go by without any stories happening to get posted, some people stop checking so often, traffic is lower, and posting frequency spirals down. A smaller traffic blog needs a kernel of Newsroom posts to maintain visits to a daily Newsroom.

A daily Newsroom could be kept ticking over based on somebody posting it (which could be on a roster) and four or five or so people per day (which could be a rotating roster) committing to posting three to five stories to a volunteer Newsroom.

Or, if there is enough editor volunteer time to maintain it in the former style at a lower pace, the Newsroom could switch to a semi-weekly format, posting on, say, Wednesday and Saturday, or Monday and Friday.

Or plans C, D or E, to be volunteered below.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on
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Chief Pirate voices support for Greece - Iceland Monitor

"Since the European Union has been urging the Greek people to go against the will of their Prime Minister, I would like to express my support and urge voters to follow their hearts in the imminent referendum," said Jónsdóttir today.

Jónsdóttir further compared the situation today in Greece with what might have happened in Iceland. In her view, Greece's creditors are pursuing the "absurd" path of trying to solve the country's debt problems by heaping more debt onto the shoulders of the people.

This is the party that is biggest in the polls in Iceland.

by fjallstrom on
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In story: 4-5 June 2015

Re: Where from here?
( / )

  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSUIQgEVDM4

    Or is it?

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on
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News and Views

 4-5 June 2015

by DoDo - Jul 4, 32 comments

Your take on today's news media

 3 July 2015

by In Wales - Jul 2, 45 comments

Your take on today's news media

 Open Thread 29 June-5 July

by afew - Jun 29, 27 comments

What's in a week?

 Open Thread 22-28 June

by afew - Jun 22, 55 comments

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