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In story: LTE: Brexit will break things...

Re: LTE: Brexit will break things...
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Though I get that you would want a more elaborate argumentation, I think it works well as LTE. It sets out a likely scenario and the consequences of it.

And I agree, that sounds like the things will likely go.

by fjallstrom on
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In story: Open Thread 16-22 January

Re: Open Thread 16-22 January
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By the end of Inauguratiion Day, the Cheeto in Chief and his band of bully boys had already removed the LGBT and climate change pages from the White House website.
by rifek on
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In story: LTE: Brexit will break things...

Re: LTE: Brexit will break things...
( / )
cos that's politics. they know there's no mileage is opposing a referendum with a popular mandate, but actual legislation is a different fish

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on
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I get a small amount of hope from the point that the campaign hasn't even started for real. That should mean a lot can still happen.
by fjallstrom on
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In story: LTE: Brexit will break things...

Re: LTE: Brexit will break things...
( / )
So how was the Marriage Equality referendum held and passed by a large (62-28) majority with EVERY party supporting it?

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: Macron Surges in the Polls

Re: Macron Surges in the Polls
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I meant if Le Pen meets somebody, somebody wins with a hefty margin. So if the polls are worth anything, Le Pen is unlikely to win.

Other polling PS-Republicans appears to be more 50-50.

So the mission if one dislikes both Fillon and Le Pen is to get somebody else to the second round.

If Macron is not actually surging, and it is just a (desperate?) ploy to build a narrative before PS settles on a candidate that takes a big chunk out of Macron's support, the alternatives to Macron are Mélenchon or the PS candidate.

And therefore I still wonder if there is any chance the small left parties in the 0-3% range could see a chance of being part of a shot at an actual Mélenchon win and support him for concessions. So any chance of leftist unity there?

(My gut says no, but it does not actually hold any knowledge of small french left parties, it is just inherintly pessimistic.)

by fjallstrom on
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In story: LTE: Brexit will break things...

Re: LTE: Brexit will break things...
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And are you suggesting that the catholic church no longer rules the Republic? Cos I'd beg to differ.

It doesn't matter what the majority think, almost all politicians are dyed in the wool religionist maniacs, Ireland is no different. I don't know why but politicians, as a breed, are more gullible devout than the people they represent. So, in the Dail, the catholic church still shakes the corridors of power.

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on
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In story: LTE: Brexit will break things...

Re: LTE: Brexit will break things...
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I think the cowardice here will be that of the EU and UK who should be discussing this from the get go.

Frankly, even allowing the suggestion of a hard border returning destabilizes the peace process. Which means that the EU/UK have to use their imaginations to create something new. Falling back into old thinking, of believing that we can return to the status quo ante, betrays everybody who worked so hard for peace.

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on
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In story: LTE: Brexit will break things...

Re: LTE: Brexit will break things...
( / )
You forget the Catholic Church still ruled Ireland in 1979 and it is still official Church teaching that "artifical" contraceptives are a mortal sin. An aspirant leader of a major party would not have been able to simply legalise contraceptives and survive, so Haughey used the fig leaf of medical necessity and professional control knowing full well that would, in practice, make them widely available. I would argue that he at least addressed the issue, while the real political cowards opposed him and/or did nothing.

In the current context, is it cowardly to seek to prevent a re-emergence of the communal tensions that gave rise to the Troubles even at the cost of some corruption/smuggling?  After all N. Ireland has been put in a situation not of its making.

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: LTE: Brexit will break things...

Re: LTE: Brexit will break things...
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An Irish solution to an Irish problem, eh?

It's a solution as old as time, it's called "giving them enough rope".

They did it a lot in the Soviet bloc; people on the inside would be granted access to what would be punishable contraband. It wouldn't be legal, it wouldn't be official but, so long as you were doing good work for the State, you'd have no problems. A bottle of good Scotch, proscribed literature or even rock and roll records.

But if you stepped out of line, it would provide the authorities all the ammunition they needed to wreck your life and that of those you loved forever. And they'd never need mention the actual thing you were beng punished for.

So, that contraception thing is a load of old balnoney. It's not an Irish solution, it's plain cowardice and corruption. Just like always

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on
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So we are all agreed that the most likely outcome is a Le Pen Fillon second round and with Fillon winning? Is there no way the left and centre can get their act together to prevent this outcome?  Where stands Fillon on Brexit?

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: Macron Surges in the Polls

Re: Le Pen trumps all?
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Le Pen would not win.
But that is likely to be even worse. Le Pen would be a major embarrassment for France - but it would lead to gridlock. There is absolutely no chance that the FN could win the legislative elections, so the prime minister would make a point of standing up to her every step of the way.

Fillon would almost certainly have a majority everywhere (the Senate's system strongly skews it towards the right, and they will run the score in the legislatives). So he would be unopposed to implement his utterly insane programme.

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on
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In story: Macron Surges in the Polls

Re: Le Pen trumps all?
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I know the current polls show Fillon beating Le Pen by a large margin,  They also showed everyone beating Trump.

France, unlike the US, is a democracy. The national polls showed Clinton beating Trump, which she did. If the national polls in France as as accurate as the US ones were, Fillon will win.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on
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So we must reconcile ourselves to the second round being between Le Pen and Fillon, or is there a realistic chance that some other candidate (besides Macron) will make it into the second round?

This feels a bit like the Bernie/Hillary battle.  Progressives wanted Bernie, and had great difficulty reconciling themselves to Hillary. So Hillary failed to get out the Dem vote and Trump won.

I know the current polls show Fillon beating Le Pen by a large margin,  They also showed everyone beating Trump.  But if Fillon fails to get out any but the neo-liberal vote (as I expect), does that mean Le Pen wins?  I could even see Le Pen winning much of the leftist anti-globalisation vote as well as tapping into a populist anti-establishment meme.

So will Le Pen eventually Trump all?

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: LTE: Brexit will break things...

Re: LTE: Brexit will break things...
( / )
"An Irish solution to a European problem" is a riff on An Irish solution to an Irish problem, a phrase popularised by then Health Minister, Charlie Haughey, when he introduced a Bill in 1979 to allow contraceptives to be available in Ireland (against the teachings of the Catholic Church), only on medical prescription, "for the purpose of bona fide family planning or adequate medical reasons."

Physicians and pharmacists who had moral objections would not be obliged to write or fill such prescriptions. Everyone knew that, in practice, everyone would be able to find a doctor and pharmacist to obtain contraceptives if they wanted to, at a price, and the law would increase the monopoly and stranglehold those professions would have on Irish healthcare. (Another important lobby appeased...)

Wikipedia defines the phrase as meaning "any official response to a controversial issue which is timid, half-baked, or expedient, which is an unsatisfactory compromise, or sidesteps the fundamental issue"...

That about covers it, although we sometimes wear such fudged compromises as a badge of honour... A former boss once told me that an ability to "tolerate ambiguity" was an essential quality for any senior manager... when I disagreed with some company decision. In other words, forget about it, move on, it will only be observed or cause a problem in exceptional cases...

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: Macron Surges in the Polls

Re: Macron Surges in the Polls
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What Bernard says.

(Including the reference to the excellent Daniel Schneidermann).

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on
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In story: Macron Surges in the Polls

Re: Macron Surges in the Polls
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And if you assume Le Pen makes it to the second round the problem becomes how do you stop Fillon being her opponent...

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: Macron Surges in the Polls

Re: Macron Surges in the Polls
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There are a few things to keep in mind:

Only the first two candidates at the end of the first round do qualify for the second round in May. In all the polls you refer to on Wiki (the French language page is more up to date), Macron never makes it to the second round (except in one corner case: Montebourg as the PS candidate - won't happen). So, fat lot of good does it do to Macron's candidacy if he can't proceed past the first round. This is what Daniel Schneidermanw has pointed out: pollsters name Macron as the winner while the very same poll shows no chance of qualifying for the second round.

The other point is that Macron candidate is largely a creation of the media who have all been fawning over him even before he announced he would be running (and even foreign media apparently). This has generated a lot of frothiness and we should be well advised not to get taken into it.

After all, let's not forget he was Hollande's adviser at the Elysée for a couple of years and then Economy Minister where he deregulated a lot of things, endearing him to right wing bosses who love neolib "reform". Again, as Schneiderman writes, maybe Macron, "the candidate of blissful globalization, the candidate of Brussels and banks, would be the second round opponent Marine Le Pen is dreaming about".

by Bernard on
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In story: Macron Surges in the Polls

Re: Macron Surges in the Polls
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I disagree that that's the only chance. Looking at the polls for the second round, everybody beats Le Pen. Well, Hollande was tied (iirc) but then again he has a extremely low approval rating, so I think that reflects the break down of the voters who dislike both. Otherwise Le Pen polls 30-45% in the polls I can see on Wikipedia (and the higher numbers are not from the last year).

So I more think that whoever meets Le Pen will win.

by fjallstrom on
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In story: Macron Surges in the Polls

Re: Macron Surges in the Polls
( / )
Which is why I am trying to find a scenario which would allow someone other than Le Pen and Fillon to make it to the second round. This requires, firstly, that the left and centrist vote is not so fractured that none of their candidates make it to the second round.  And secondly it requires that if someone other than Le Pen and Fillon makes it to the second round, that they can unite the bulk of the left and centrist vote behind them.  Both tall orders, I would have thought (from afar).

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: Macron Surges in the Polls

Re: Macron Surges in the Polls
( / )
Just to be clear: Fillon is not an alternative to a hard-right winner.

Actually, if he were, then there would not be a serious risk of a hard-right winner. But he is not, and thus alas it is almost a certainty.

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on
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Either way it would totally disorganize the current system for years. Probate lawyers would have a field day. Some families would come through fine. Others might never recover. But a lot of business opportunities would suddenly appear and it is hard to imagine that such an event would INCREASE concentration of wealth.

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on
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In story: Macron Surges in the Polls

Re: Macron Surges in the Polls
( / )
By the same logic Macron could offer left wing and Socialist Party candidates cabinet positions thereby providing some reassurance to those worried that he might dismantled the welfare state and helping to Unify all non-hard right forces behind him.  For any such strategy to work the lead candidate has to be well in front of the others for them to realise their best shot at implementing their policies is to settle for a lesser post under a candidate with a good chance of winning.  

However the larger question is whether the left and centre are large enough and unified enough to produce a majority.  The more likely scenario, it seems to me, given the degree of fracture on the left, even if Macron or a left wing/socialist party candidate makes the second round, is that supporters of Le Pen would rally behind Fillon or vice versa in the second round.

I suggest the only chance for a non-hard right winner is if Le Pen succeeds in uniting everyone else against her in the second round.  Given the left is unlikely to rally behind Fillon, and Fillon supporters are unlikely to rally behind a left wing candidate, that leaves Macron in the best position of  offering himself as an alternative to Le Pen (and Fillon in the first round).

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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You're in a cheery mood today.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on
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In story: Macron Surges in the Polls

Re: Macron Surges in the Polls
( / )
Seeing how Macron's "surge" is mostly a scenario where the neoliberal on economics and social liberal lane is cleared (and friendly media), is there any chance of the smaller left-wing parties realising that they have no chance, but Mélenchon actually has a shot and does a deal with him?

Ministerial seats or policy positions can be pretty cheap when power is a long shot anyway. If they did that should give Mélenchon a similar "surge".

by fjallstrom on
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Nuclear would have had long term damage. Better just suck the oxygen from the place. An added benefit would be that it would have given them the opportunity, for a few seconds, to experience how people have felt from what they did.

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on
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In story: A Hard Rain's A Gonna Fall

Another outstanding contribution
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from the ever helpful Boris Johnson...
Boris Johnson to France: no WW2-style punishment beatings over Brexit
At a foreign policy conference in Delhi, Johnson said: "If Hollande wants to administer punishment beatings to anybody who seeks to escape [the EU], in the manner of some world war two movie, I don't think that is the way forward. It's not in the interests of our friends and partners."

His words came only 24 hours after Theresa May reminded her cabinet ministers in her Lancaster House speech to show restraint by warning "any stray word" could make securing a Brexit deal more difficult.

Although the French government declined to respond to Johnson's remarks, Guy Verhofstadt, the lead Brexit negotiator for the European parliament, branded them "abhorrent and deeply unhelpful".

British politicians accused Johnson of being unfit to head the diplomatic service. Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat leader, said: "This is an utterly crass and clueless remark from the man who is supposed to be our chief diplomat.



by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: German Election Early News Roundup

Re: German Election Early News Roundup
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Suceeding? Nobdoy has gotten that far yet. Corbyn and Sanders show what happens if you even dare articulate a left-wing program in public.
by Zwackus on
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In story: German Election Early News Roundup

Re: German Election Early News Roundup
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As far as I can see the allegations are a nothing burger. The SPD folding here means they aren't ready to face a stiff breeze. You can look at Sanders and Corbyn if you have any doubt about what you'd have to face if you get close to succeeding with a left wing program.

by generic on
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In story: German Election Early News Roundup

Re: German Election Early News Roundup
( / )
Humboldt university has fired him as well. Everybody knew he was a Stasi trainee, even a full time employee for a short time before the wall came down. So why have him employed in the first place? Secondly, why nominate him for a deputy minister post?

From a professional pov he had a lot of informative things to say about gentrification. But it was foreseeable that his nomination wouldn't fly politically. Which leads me to believe that "R2G" (current parlance for Red-Red-Green) is dead on arrival in the general election because they're amateurs.

by epochepoque on
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News and Views

 16 - 22 January 2016

by Bjinse - Jan 15, 65 comments

Your take on today's news media

 Start of 2017 News

by Bjinse - Jan 8, 76 comments

Your take on today's news media

 Open Thread 16-22 January

by Bjinse - Jan 15, 11 comments

I'm quite illiterate, but I thread a lot.

 2017 Kickoff Thread

by Bjinse - Jan 8, 27 comments

2017. There we are.

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