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In story: European Elections 2017, next stop: France

Re: European Elections 2017, next stop: France
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Well Macron was his personal advisor and then Economics minister.  It is one of the miracles of modern marketing (and media complicity) that Macron has managed to distance himself so successfully from Hollande. He has probably asked Hollande not to endorse him publicly  - at least not until the second round - so as to help maintain that distance.

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.

Re: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.
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I would expect uncertainty to persist right up to E (xit) day with hopes of a last minute deal...

Will Macron/Schulz seek to exploit French/German anti-Brexit feeling in their election campaigns?  This could change the negotiating landscape...

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.

Re: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.
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Yes, the governments lack of infrastructural planning and spending is going to bite us in the ass big time - particularly housing and public transport.  However there is still scope for an expansion of the Dublin Financial Services centre into the docklands and Dublin airport owns a large tract of land around the airport which they say they want to develop into a business park.

I'm not sure how many front office staff would have to move to establish a sufficient EU presence for passporting purposes and back office staff can be located anywhere.  I would expect an Apple like scenario - huge volumes of assets and some activities are relocated in Ireland, but not necessarily huge numbers of jobs.

The banks will probably take the opportunity to automate and technologise huge numbers of jobs - so while London will lose hundreds of thousands of jobs - perhaps only tens of thousands will re-materialise elsewhere.

I would be more hopeful of a wide range of other UK businesses which require single market access setting up operations in Ireland - many of them relatively small and which can be located in smaller towns and cities across the country and which can offset the loss of agricultural/food jobs in rural areas much better than an under pressure greater Dublin area.

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: European Elections 2017, next stop: France

Re: European Elections 2017, next stop: France
( / )
Franck: whereas Hamon is at 10%

Whereas Hamon runs under the PS banner, a party that has been terminally weakened by five years of Hollande government with alignment to the EPP austerity policies, decreasing worker protections, more power to the police (and more police brutality) and generally doing the opposite of what he promised in 2012.

Hollande has managed to destroy the PS. Not only has he and the PS leadership shown no interest in supporting Hamon, but several prominent PS figures are publicly supporting Macron , wrecking the PS (and Hamon's) chances. Hollande himself is said to be covertly supporting Macron.

by Bernard on
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In story: Theresa May's A50 letter

Re: Theresa May's A50 letter
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Because Britain does not need counter-terrorism intelligence cooperation being hardly targeted by terrorism...
by Bernard on
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In story: Theresa May's A50 letter

Re: Theresa May's A50 letter
( / )
I suspect they mean the UK's contribution to counter-terrorism via GCHQ and others

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on
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In story: Theresa May's A50 letter

Re: Theresa May's A50 letter
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... Europe still needs British security and defence capabilities.

Tories are planning to leave NATO?

by ATinNM on
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In story: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.

Re: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.
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As I said yesterday: the hardest of hard exits.  

I don't know enough about the UK to hazard a guess at how that will work-out.  

by ATinNM on
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In story: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.

Re: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.
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Yes, I've heard that many City companies have rejected Frankfurt as a possible new centre because these are hire-and-fire industries where you are judged on your last quarter; something I believe German employment law makes difficult.

So, it's Dublin or Paris;-
Paris is good cos it's a train ride away. Food is good, but they speak French and their laws are wrong (or something).

So.....Dublin. Which is unfortunate cos Dublin is waaaaaay too small to cope. Dublin had better sort out a greenfield site with a lot of potential and then sell it to the City before it gets out of hand. Looking ahead and planning is what goverment is for, guys. (psssst, Limerick and Shannon is your best bet)

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on
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In story: Article 50 Day

Re: Intelligence and competence
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Compared to a Boris she is obviously hard working and meticulous. But actual negotiation success requires good relationships.  Your counterparts have to actually want to give you a good deal.  All the evidence suggests that she and her team are there to appease the hard right, not to cultivate relationships and generate a propitious negotiating climate.  As far as I can see she has almost no close friends or allies on the European Council or Commission.  Why should anyone from the EU27 go out on a limb for her?

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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What? Repetitions? Only meaningful ones.  You have to read between the lines...

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: Theresa May's A50 letter

Re: Theresa May's A50 letter-verbatim repetitions
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Welcome - more comments and lead stories also welcome!

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.

Re: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.
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This sounds likely.
by fjallstrom on
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In story: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.

Re: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.
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Does Revelations not provide a role for a buffoon/clown/court jester?

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.

Re: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.
( / )
And as we all now know, Brexit means Brexit.

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.

Re: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.
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The most likely outcome is Brexit. May said so.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on
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In story: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.

Re: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.
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It may not be your money, but an awful lot of generally risk averse money is riding on the outcome. Hence a lot of banks and investment funds hedging their bets at the moment. That in itself is not good news for the UK economy.

My view has always been that the short term possible impacts are variable, but that the longer term impacts will be incrementally and increasingly bad for the UK, and not altogether good for the EU either.

My median expectations for 10 years from now:

  1. No substantial Brexit deal followed by trade war between UK/EU followed by a very poor trade deal from a UK point of view (possibly worse than third parties currently enjoy). (Schultz may succeed Merkel and pursue an even harder line).
  2. Scotland Independent within EU (and probably Eurozone) with huge acrimony over share of national debt etc.
  3. N.I. Sovereignty transferred from London to Dublin/Brussels with local devolved institutions more or less as is - i.e. not functioning very well
  4. UK economy and currency to decline c. 30% relative to EU27/Euro with only a slow recovery afterwards
  5. Class war, industrial strife, and a return of the "English Disease" to dominate English society. Immigrants will be blamed even thought they are generally hard working, tax paying, law abiding and declining in numbers anyway due to declining wages and unemployment crisis.
  6. Ireland weathers the economic and political storms surprisingly well with continued growth driven by a wide range of UK businesses (not just banking) relocating part of their operations here to avoid tariff and non-tariff barriers.  This could exacerbate urban/rural tensions in Ireland as the larger towns/cities will benefit most while agriculture and food exports to UK decline.
  7. A mild recession, at worst, in the EU effecting mainly the richer northern states who are forced to diversify their export markets more
  8. Some ongoing reforms within a more and more German dominated EU, but not enough to address fundamental structural imbalances and inequalities
  9. Political instability within some EU states as regional and far right nationalist parties continue to make gains and rule in some countries
  10. The EU becomes more of a "player" in the global politics taking over some security functions from NATO, operating more independently of US interests, more neutrally in the middle east, and building alliances with Russia, China, India and other rising economies.


by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.

Re: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.
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Boris

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on
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In story: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.

Re: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.
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Here is one plausible scenario:
  • no serious negotiations during 2017 as the EU waits for Germany's general election in September
  • since total uncertainty persists until less than 18 months before the Brexit date of March 2019, most large corporations put set in motion their no-deal-Brexit contingency plans
  • in particular airlines, car manufacturers and banks start visibly moving their operations to the eurozone
  • this hardens the position of the brexiteers, and there is a public backlash against traitorous big business in the UK
  • negotiations to go off the rails


by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on
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In story: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.

Re: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.
( / )
Who plays the beast of the apocalypse?

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: Theresa May's A50 letter

Re: Theresa May's A50 letter-verbatim repetitions
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Welcome to ET, oldremainer!

You now have permissions to post HTML links.

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on
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In story: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.

Re: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.
( / )
I think the Book of Revelations covers most of what I think will happen.

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on
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They could have other things to hide, Trump is not exactly the most transparent. Or they could be afraid that giving an inch will have them hounded for the rest of the term. Or they could be guilty.
by fjallstrom on
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In story: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.

Re: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.
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I said I wouldn't put money on it.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on
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In story: Theresa May's A50 letter

Re: Theresa May's A50 letter
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Interesting how the Sun immediately goes on the offensive (both meanings implied) by having "Your money or your lives" as a front page headline.

the idea being that only Britain can guarantee the safety of of the EU, especially with regard to terrorism. I wonder how they'd have reacted if Germany had suggested similar in response to last week's attack in Westminster. I doubt they'd have thought it a good wheeze or even a reasonable suggestion.

We aren't the white hats here and, even if brexiters do not understand this, they don't need us a tenth as much as we need them.

But fantasies must be fed to keep the froth bubbling

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on
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In story: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.

Re: Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.
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I thought your position was that the outcome was unknowable, and speculation useless

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: European Elections 2017, next stop: France

Re: European Elections 2017, next stop: France
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When the right wins it is time for unity. When it loses it is time to destroy the party to save the party.
by generic on
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In story: Theresa May's A50 letter

Re: Theresa May's A50 letter-verbatim repetitions
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Is it just me, or is the letter chock full of verbatim repetitions?

That was my view too.

I found <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/28/theresa-may-rhetoric-brexit-authoritarian-delusions">this article</a> an enlightening discussion of May's vacuous style, written on Tuesday after the meeting in Scotland and before A50 letter was published. The headline is

Theresa May takes empty rhetoric to a new level

The prime minister's motivational generalities over Brexit and beyond may be about to tip over into something darker - authoritarian delusions

by oldremainmer48 on
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In story: European Elections 2017, next stop: France

Re: European Elections 2017, next stop: France
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Except that Corbyn is still leader of a party with considerable support, whereas Hamon is at 10% ...

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: Article 50 Day

Re: Intelligence and competence
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She still isn't negotiating with the EU, she's negotiating with her back bench  and the tabloids. If that doesn't stop it doesn't matter whether she reads the briefs or what tribe she might be a member of.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on
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News and Views

 27 March - 2 April 2017

by Bjinse - Mar 27, 27 comments

Your take on this week's news

 20 - 26 March 2017

by Bjinse - Mar 20, 50 comments

Your take on this week's news

 Open Thread 27 March

by Bjinse - Mar 27, 16 comments

Like a flash of lightning in the clouds, we thread in the flicker.

 Open Thread 13-26 March

by Bjinse - Mar 13, 44 comments

He was going to thread forever, or die in the attempt

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