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In story: 22 - 28 January 2018

Re: Living On the Planet
( / )
by generic on
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If you start with the assumption that government should not exist, it should be no surprise that you'll be terrible at governing.
by rifek on
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In story: Divide and Conquer?

Re: Divide and Conquer?
( / )
The Brexiteers are essentially English nationalists with little interest in Ireland or N. Ireland. That the Irish border issue has now created complications for the Brexit negotiations is an irritating irrelevance as far as they are concerned, to be minimised, pooh-pooed, and wished away with false analogies and magical thinking. The Legatum Institutes "solution" is of that ilk.

If they were honest they would simply accept that N. Ireland will have to remain in the Single market and Customs Union if the Irish border (and commitments made under the Good Friday Agreement) are not to become problematic. They can then have their "invisible", "frictionless", and problem free border in the middle of the Irish sea.

The problem is they require the parliamentary support of the DUP for whom any semblance of any border between N. Ireland and Britain is anathema.  So the fall-back position is to argue that it is really the Irish government which is being unreasonable, and if the Irish government had any sense they would join the UK in leaving the EU, and hey presto, the need for an Irish land border would disappear. The Republic would effectively be re-joining the UK.

In the meantime, and given the obduracy of Varadker et al, the best strategy is to seek to isolate the Irish as a means of weakening the EU's negotiating position as whole. Any old non-factual blather about how well other borders operate will do. The LSE's paper, by two Queen's University, Belfast academics, begins the process of debunking those claims.

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: Divide and Conquer?

Re: (50%+) tariffs
( / )
I have argued on many occasions that the Brexiteers' breezy assumption that the UK can simply default to WTO tariffs and rules in the event of a no-deal Brexit is erroneous. For one thing, a no-deal Brexit implies leaving on bad terms without payment of the exit payment which the EU27 claims is due.  In that context the EU may not be disposed to offer the UK most favoured nation status.

In addition, there has been no agreement on a methodology for carving out UK share of current EU28 WTO trade quotas, and in that context, it cannot simply be assumed that proportionate (to what?) quotas will be granted to the UK. The Joint letter from the EU and the UK Permanent Representatives to the WTO is a statement of intent only, and implies a harmonious Brexit process and Treaty will be agreed.

Finally, the EU is actively engaged in negotiating bi-lateral trade deals with all its major trading partners to the point where trading by default WTO rules will apply only to a diminishing residual share of total EU external trade. The WTO is effectively a moribund organisation which has not been able to conclude a successful trade round in many years. There is nothing to prevent the EU27 withdrawing from the WTO and applying punitive tariffs to the UK if it deems the UK to have been in dereliction of payment of debts rightfully due.

Remember, a no deal Brexit implies leaving on very bad terms indeed, and the EU27 will be under no obligation to make life easy for the UK even if Ireland, in particular, is caught in the cross-fire. The one thing the EU cannot allow happen is for the UK to be seen to "have cake and eat it" outside of all the other obligations EU members have to observe. Other ways can be found to compensate Ireland and specific industries most effected.

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: Divide and Conquer?

Re: Divide and Conquer?
( / )
A warning word by Colman ovr 12 years ago ...

Neocons sighted on the Thames

Close to the Henry Jackson Society with fellows like Anne Applebaum [has resigned], can you comment on this article please.

Legatum Institute's 'solution' for the Brexit border is highly problematic

by Oui on
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In story: 22 - 28 January 2018

Re: Living Off the Planet
( / )
Great Wall launches EV r&d center in Austria
The center will initially develop electric motors and related control systems for EVs, the company said. Great Wall plans to invest 20 million euros (157 million yuan) in the operation by 2020.

Great Wall markets only one EV, a compact sedan. It is expected to launch a plug-in hybrid crossover under its premium Wey band in the first quarter of this year. To expand EV production under China's upcoming carbon credit program, Great Wall acquired a 25 percent stake in Hebei Yuejie Industry Co. last year.


Balance of Market Power
VW Group edges GM in 2017 sales race
"Volkswagen Group said its various brands sold 4.18 million vehicles in China last year"

archived:
China launches largest carbon market in the world
"The EU climate commissioner also announced "enhanced cooperation" between the EU and China on emission trading"

by Cat on
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Brazil braces for corruption appeal that could make or break ex-president  - Guardian
Brazil is bracing for a historic court decision which could remove the most popular leader in modern Brazilian history from an election he is currently poised to win - and may prove devastating to the leftwing Workers' party he founded.

Nerves are stretched taut ahead of Wednesday's appeals court decision, in which three judges will decide whether or not to uphold the conviction of former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on corruption and money laundering charges.

Lula - who is still hugely popular after his 2003-2010 two-term presidency - is currently the early favourite in October's presidential election.

Porto Alegre's rightwing mayor Nelson Marchezan asked for the army to protect the city from thousands of Lula supporters expected to descend. The Workers' party president, Gleisi Hoffmann, said last week that for Lula to be arrested, "they will have to kill people" - although she later qualified the remark.

Authorities have closed airspace over the court, sealed off the surrounding streets, and plan to deploy helicopters, elevated observation platforms and even rooftop sharpshooters.

by Bernard on
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Indian PM Narendra Modi warns of three major global threats - DW
Modi singled out three major challenges mankind was facing right now. He said the greatest threat came from rapid climate change and the resulting extreme weather conditions, natural disasters and rising sea levels which threaten the lives and livelihoods of millions of people around the world.

The prime minister identified terrorism, and the radicalization of people in many societies, as the second-biggest threat. Without providing concrete examples, he criticized world powers for, in his eyes, making the problem worse by artificially distinguishing between "bad terrorists" and "good terrorists."

by Bernard on
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However:

Germany's SPD sees spike in applicants ahead of coalition talks - DW

The Social Democrats (SPD) have recorded a sudden increase in memberships. The German party's youth wing, Jusos, is campaigning for new members to influence the final vote on governing with Angela Merkel's conservatives.

Social Democrat delegates have had their say: After a narrow vote of 56.1 percent, it's full steam ahead for talks to form a "grand coalition" (GroKo) with Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives. But before any deal is signed, 440,000 SPD members will have the final say. "GroKo or NoGroKo" -- that will be the question. But that number of party members could be set to rise.

by Bernard on
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Germany's Social Democrats only 4 points ahead of far-right AfD - Politico
BERLIN -- A new poll places Martin Schulz's Social Democrats (SPD) only four points ahead of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).

If there were an election today, the SPD would receive 18 percent of the vote while the AfD would receive 14, according to an INSA poll published Tuesday.

Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats and Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, would receive 31.5 percent. The Greens and Free Democrats (FDP), meanwhile, would come in at 10 percent, and the Left at 11 percent. The AfD has remained steady at 14 percent for the past several weeks.

The results mark a new low for the SPD, which suffered a major defeat in September's federal election, when it received 20.5 percent of the vote.

The AfD, meanwhile, has seen a rise from its September result of 12.6 percent.

by Bernard on
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re: BREXIT, Overseas Territories, Crown Dependents, Protectorates, colonies, jurisdiction

Gibraltar gun fans disappointed by EU court ruling

The Luxembourg-based court today shot down Buhagiar's plea, reiterating that Gibraltar's exclusion from the EU's customs area means that the rules of the Treaty and secondary legislation are not applicable to the territory, even if their application would have a positive impact on local services, as claimed by the association.

Picardo's Sammy Wilson Cue: "PM May to Gibraltar: 'Stay British as long as you like'"

by Cat on
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In story: 15 - 21 January 2018

Re: Living Off the Planet
( / )
eurogreen would recommend New Zealand instead.
by Bernard on
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Don't rush to cheer up: EPP wants pan-EU lists for 2024
"The Parliament is the institution that was the most independent of governmental choices, the one which had consistently been the most capable of developing transnational groupings of political forces, the one that was the most imbued with European spirit and had been the most resolute in calling for a limitation of national sovereignty and for supranational development."
[...]
According to the Parliament committee, out of the 73 seats, 46 will be held in reserve for future enlargement and the so-called pan-EU lists.  The remaining 27 seats will be distributed among the 14 EU countries that are currently "slightly under-represented"...However, in order for this to happen, the electoral law should change by a unanimous decision by ministers in the Council, and be ratified by all member states.

archived:
national and transnational lists, degressive proportionality


by Cat on
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In story: 22 - 28 January 2018

Re: Living On the Planet
( / )
DICTION CORNER: fake news, syn. propaganda

MEPs bare teeth in debate over Russian propaganda

Julian King, the European Commissioner for Security, was present during the debate and recalled that the Commission had opened a public consultation on fake news, which ends on 23 February. "The aim of this campaign is to show that fake news is real. We need to knock down this propaganda".

Facebook tries out charm offensive with four EU Commissioners

he spent much of her speech explaining how the tech giant is taking down posts and user accounts that promote [PROPAGANDA]--one of the areas where Gabriel is trying to make her mark before the Commission's term ends next year.

Gabriel is in charge of an EU strategy on [PROPAGANDA]. She will announce details of the plan in May, but has already said that she wants to address how [PROPAGANDA] is financed, and include measures to make social media platforms more transparent.

archived:
"To your point about TNCs corrupting diverse national policies..." [1]
How to tame the tech titans - The Economist
Gallup/Knight Foundation Survey on Trust, Media and Democracy (USA)
A Trip to the Woodshed
" And I gather that all of your companies have moved beyond any notion that your job is only to provide a platform, and whatever goes across it is not your affair?"

by Cat on
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In story: 22 - 28 January 2018

Organizational Hygiene Watch
( / )
Principal of leading school says he will expel students who have a boyfriend or girlfriend
"There are plenty of students that wish to attend Ruthin School without the diversion of romance - and these students can replace those students whose focus is on bf/gf relationships."

by Cat on
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In story: 15 - 21 January 2018

Re: Living Off the Planet
( / )
a California life-style without the glamour.

by Cat on
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In story: Divide and Conquer?

Re: (50%+) tariffs
( / )
WTO governance and commitments (tariff, quota) apply to EU bloc viz. third-country WTO members. UK-EU "no deal" cannot default to academic calculation, but de minimis range determined by WTO members' and based on WTO member historical trade balances. That is total UK share of total EU bloc is not tabula rasa, but comparable to EU bloc trade with and duties applied to third-country products' origins.

Completing divestment of total UK share from total EU bloc trade balance is an arithmetic exercise. It is the subject of the formal joint notice to WTO. Nominally this difference positions UK by "default" for preferential quota and tariff treatment by EU

Tariffs placed by the EU, at a Most Favoured Nation level of 3.2 per cent upon agricultural products exported from Northern Ireland, would have significant adverse effects, whilst average WTOlevel tariffs on agricultural imports into Northern Ireland would create inflationary pressures.

or WTO standards. EG. BEETS, CAPS, EU prerogatives. Let us remember for Sammy Wilson's sake, NI is the UK.

To the extent UK goods and services can be segregated from those originating in EU27 at every point in any supply chain by product code is the political exercise of Phase II settlement in which the UK has thus far, apparently refused to participate. Which is to say, Tory gov has deferred to EU authority at bi-lateral ("no deal") -> WTO-level specification. And I expect Tory gov to default to this defensive strategy with every other prospective trade partner.

In the esri paper, distribution of UK trade to each EU member --deranged from political, heterogenous human prerogatives as well as FX hurdles to investment and sales-- predicates a persistent, erroneous belief that UK is free to dictate bi-lateral trade arrangements with each member. This a silly, incongruous basis by which to project EU bloc relations to the UK.

Because EC tariff quota mediate members' third-country trade.

+50% is exaggeration, when delta 0 to 3.2% will do to dramatize the disadvantages conveyed by BREXIT. Withdrawal from a customs union.


by Cat on
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In story: Open Thread 15 - 21 Jan

Re: Open Thread 15 - 21 Jan
( / )
Imagine those men don't need to focus to get women chasing them.
by das monde on
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In story: Open Thread 15 - 21 Jan

Re: Open Thread 15 - 21 Jan
( / )
Focus and intensity is true for high status as well as low status males. But frustration levels are different.
 

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on
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In story: 22 - 28 January 2018

Re: Economy & Finance
( / )
EU removes Panama and seven others from tax-haven blacklist
[Panama,] Barbados, Grenada, South Korea, Macao, Mongolia, Tunisia and the United Arab Emirates joined Panama as jurisdictions delisted.
[...]
The eight delisted jurisdictions have been moved to a so-called grey list, which includes other 47 jurisdictions that have committed to changing their tax rules to abide by EU standards on transparency and cooperation.

archived: Happy Vanuatu Day
The awkward process of legislating recommendations
"hird part `calls, therefore, on the Commission to regard Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Ireland and Malta as EU tax havens;' [REJECTED]"
[S&D] MEPs try to add EU member states to the blacklist of tax havens
a raft of documents addressing tax avoidance and evasion

by Cat on
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In story: 22 - 28 January 2018

Re: Economy & Finance
( / )
re: antitrust action, 21st Cen Fox, Sky, Walt Disney

Fox deal for Sky not in public interest - UK regulator

The UK government, which will take the final decision on the deal, asked the Competition and Markets Authority to judge if Murdoch had too much influence in Britain and would uphold broadcasting standards. The CMA said today that the deal as proposed went against the public interest because it would give the Murdoch family too much control over the provision of news.
[...]
It said that recent allegations of sexual harassment at his Fox News organisation in the US did not call into question his commitment to upholding standards in Britain.


by Cat on
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I always thought this was an American disease. But it affects Italians as well. Teatro Goldoni in Livorno:
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on
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In story: Divide and Conquer?

Re: (50%+) tariffs
( / )
You keep referring to that paper without x-reference to World Tariff Profiles 2017, EU BREXIT impact papers, or change in play to date. Why is that?

What's wrong with these assumptions besides category errors and the fact that the EU does not apply one rate/product line to all third-countries, because, well, bi-lateral trade agreements are in place?

  1. The paper examines the impact of applying WTO tariff and quota's on existing levels and types of trade between UK and individual EU27 countries

  2. World Tariff Profiles 2017 do not apply to intra-EU trade and therefore doesn't include Ireland/UK trade

  3. The Brexit impact paper you reference makes no reference to tariff rates or impact on trade (beyond broad estimates of impact on GDP).

  4. What category errors are you referring to  - beyond the assumption of the UK remaining within the Customs Union - which I have already referenced?

  5. The whole point of the paper is to examine would would happen in the absence of a bi-lateral trade agreement between UK and EU27 - i.e. a no deal Brexit

  6. Why the dismissive tone?


by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: 15 - 21 January 2018

Re: Living Off the Planet
( / )
I have been pointing out to several friends over the past few weeks that you should not even think of moving permanently to Australia.

Or expect crazy heat, no water, and wildfires to be your future.

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on
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In story: Divide and Conquer?

Re: (50%+) tariffs
( / )
You keep referring to that paper without x-reference to World Tariff Profiles 2017, EU BREXIT impact papers, or change in play to date. Why is that?

Section 3 describes the WTO tariff structure and presents implied tariffs by country and sector if these were applied to the current trade structure between the UK and each of the other EU member states
[...]
Our analysis is based on bilateral trade flows between the UK and each of the 27 other member states of the EU from the United Nations ComTrade data source for 2015.
[...]
without an agreed trade deal, the UK will not be able to apply different tariffs to trade from the
EU than it is willing to apply to all other countries.  

What's wrong with these assumptions besides category errors and the fact that the EU does not apply one rate/product line to all third-countries, because, well, bi-lateral trade agreements are in place?

archived: consider the source
condition for UK "transition" period
Joint letter from the EU and the UK Permanent Representatives to the WTO
World Tariff Profiles 2017
of which "data on bound, applied and preferential tariffs and import statistics are available in up to six digits of the Harmonized System (HS) codes" (Tariff Analysis Online )
EU Impact Studies of which The Impact and Consequences of Brexit for Northern Ireland

by Cat on
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In story: Divide and Conquer?

Re: (50%+) tariffs
( / )
Overall the study estimates a 30% reduction in UK/Ireland trade on medium price elasticity assumptions. However the study assumes the UK remains within the customs Union and therefore assumes no non-tariff barriers to trade. With the UK also intent on leaving the Customs Union the actual impact on trade could be much higher.

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: Divide and Conquer?

Re: (50%+) tariffs
( / )
For a detailed study of the impact of WTO tariff rates on EU/UK trade see here (pdf). There are different tariff rates on over 5,000 different product lines ranging from 0% to over 80%. Food and clothing attract the highest tariffs with meat c. 50%. The aggregate tariff on all Irish exports to UK is by far the highest in the EU (because of our heavy emphasis on food) and comes in at c. 18%. Trade in some product lines is expected to cease entirely because of the punitive nature of the tariff rates.

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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This is an exaggeration as have been and are so many claims coming out of Tory gov. It's not worth repeating.

Eurotrib has had the opportunity to review EU 2017 WTO portfolio. No EU third-country duties approach 50% much eless 20% or 15%. Eurotrib has had the opportunity to review EU BREXIT impact papers estimating 4% tariff which is line with EU favored nation ask. Currently, EU tariff on UK imports is 0. It will remain 0 until March '19 or March '21.

Any tariff greater than 0 is the number driving prospects of "permanent insanity or piracy" through the UK.

And Eurotrib has had the opportunity to review the EU-UK joint notice to WTO regarding quota divestment. EU is highly unlikely to short UK import quota in re-balancing EU27 WTO commitments, if only to support IE's small-holders' beef & dairy exports to UK, their largest trade partner. In the scheme of things, this business is marginal to EU internal and EU-UK trade balances.

IE's and UK's biggest losses are going to come from transnational banking and financial services. That's the way it is. The writing was on the wall from '12, when Draghi took on decimating eurozone bond rates and yield. "Austerity" finished the City, ironically. This is one reason why Barnier is so confident. UK has no leverage.

Pun intended.

by Cat on
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In story: Divide and Conquer?

Re: Divide and Conquer?
( / )
In many ways Ireland is a natural ally of the UK in the Brexit negotiations but not of the DUP and the DUP led-by-the-nose May government. The Irish government knows the UK government didn't give a shit about N. Ireland and wouldn't have given it a moments thought had Ireland not been able to to gain EU agreement to it's red lines on the border

But otherwise Ireland wants as soft a Brexit as possible. Irish food exporters are still critically dependent on the UK market and these exports will be subject to v. high (50%+) tariffs if WTO terms apply. The great fear of the Irish government is that its influence will wane as the talks move on to trade, and disappear almost altogether if the UK ends up crashing out without any deal.

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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In story: Divide and Conquer?

Re: Divide and Conquer?
( / )
And come the next general election they probably won't vote again as most are not in marginal constituencies. Or has Brexit led to them being much more engaged politically?

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on
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News and Views

 22 - 28 January 2018

by Bjinse - Jan 22, 20 comments

Your take on this week's news

 15 - 21 January 2018

by Bjinse - Jan 15, 88 comments

Your take on this week's news

 Open Thread 22 - 28 Jan

by Bjinse - Jan 22, 1 comment

Get busy living or get busy threading

 Open Thread 15 - 21 Jan

by Bjinse - Jan 15, 24 comments

Never give a thread an even break

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