|
by HiD
With apologies to Jerome (who will be right eventually) there are a number of good reasons why crude oil prices are dropping and will likely stay down unless winter bites really hard this year:
Upward forces:
Demand destruction. Once people change habits they don't rush right back to piggery. And it's not like the pump prices are moving down much. My price at the pump is still up from $2.85 to near $3.40. We've shut down most optional trips just on general principle. Refineries are deferring maintenance from this fall to next spring (get ready for high mogas next April/May) to play catch up. Hoarders arms are getting tired. At some point you sell your "fear" stocks rather than have your ass handed to you when/if the bottom drops out. Recession brewing? Stock market thinks so at least this week. Oil prices could drop even as high natgas screws the US royally. $14+ gas (effectively $84 crude on btu basis) is deadly for the plastics industry (ethylene etc come from gas in the US instead of the naphtha feeds of Europe) and will crush the east coast and midwestern home heat end users. These folks have not yet begun to pay up while their newspapers are screaming the bad news. You have to figure that with natgas doubling in price, utilities are doing everything they can to burn less while maximizing coal and still the price is rising. This does not bode well for winter.. Jerome may have to wait a couple of years for the 3 digit crude barring Al Qaeda taking out Ras Tanura. Yet we may have 3 digit natgas equivalent (about $16.5) very soon indeed. Fair warning: my bet in the pool is about $52 so I'm talking my book. Even a cheap bottle of Cremant is enough to influence the average oil trader.
|
Menu
. Home
. About . Contact . New User Guide . FAQ . Search . Search (Google) . Archives (Wiki) Art, Economics, Energy, Environment, EU Politics, Mech & Tech, By Country Login
|
||
|
Countdown to $50 oil???? | 6 comments (6 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
Countdown to $50 oil???? | 6 comments (6 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
| ||||
| ||||