The Niger forgery- The devil is in detail

by de Gondi
Tue Nov 15th, 2005 at 02:14:39 AM EST

More on the developing story of Italian-US-Iraq intrigue ~ whataboutbob

While the Italian Sismi and the Berlusconi government scuttle for damage control over the revelations in la Repubblica last week, Carlo Bonini and Giuseppe D'Avanzo take a hint from an American blog and again wreak havoc. But this time by simply pointing out glaring inconsistencies that have been available to the public since the publication of the Senate Select Committee Investigation Report. Apparently they're doing the job that Rockefeller and Roberts can't get around to doing in the Senate follow-up investigation.

According to today's Repubblica scoop, the blog Left Coaster noticed a crucial detail and asked an appropriate question: "Why did the Senate Report attribute a letter by Allele Dihadj Habibou to Nassirou Sabo? Who is disinforming who?" That is precisely what is written on page 36 of the SSCI Report: "Nigerien Minister of Foreign Affairs Nassirou Sabo." The answer can only be the Sismi, for it was the Sismi that showed the documents to the CIA station chief in Rome as early as October 15th, 2001. The station chief was not allowed to photocopy the documents but only to hand copy salient details.


The only problem is that in the original forged document there was a fundamental error that was noticed by someone, most likely an Italian intelligence officer. Habibou was no longer Niger minister of foreign affairs since 1989. The minister of foreign affaires in 2000 was Nassirou Sabo. All that needed to be done was to correct the forged document by forging Sabo's signature and pass it off to the Rome embassy.


...the dossier is ready, but it has to be managed with discretion. It would be too tricky to turn it over to the CIA. What if they discover that the signatures had been manipulated? What should be done? Here's what the Sismi came up with, according to George Thielmann...: "The CIA field officer in Italy [Jeff Castelli] told Langley that he had seen (but was not able to make a copy) some papers that documented an Iraqi attempt to acquire 500 tons of pure uranium from Niger in early 2001, thanks to the collaboration of Sismi." This is the October 15th, 2001 report. The CIA agent... quickly copies the news he reads in the dossier ... the 1999 telex, the Court of Niger [letter], the letter from Mamdou Tandja to Saddam Hussein. He notes that the letter of October 10th, 2000 is signed by Nassirou Sabo (The signature of Allele Dihadj Habibou has been substituted by a sleight of hand.)

But the probable original forgery apparently in the hands of Rocco Martino still had Habibou's name on it. It is this document that was first published by la Repubblica on July 16th, 2003 and subsequently published by Panorama on July 31st, 2003. Cryptome published all published documents in three sets on July 18th, July 27th (also here) and October 22nd, 2003.

The Sismi information could well have been the smoking gun that proved Saddam's interest in nuclear material. While INR found the information highly suspect, Langley asked for further details. Again the Sismi in the person of Nicolo Pollari confirmed their sources as reliable on October 18th, 2001.


Pollari, as he explains to the Messaggero [a Roman daily owned by Caltagirone- my note], answers immediately on October 18th "with a page-and-a-half letter". He explains that "the information comes from a reliable source, la Signora". He does not reveal her identity but says that "in the past la Signora supplied the Sismi with cryptographic codes and the Embassy's protocol registers." Therefore, the documents could be good. On the same day, October 18th, 2001, the CIA issued a complete report (Senior Intelligence Brief, "Iraq, Nuclear-Procurement Efforts.") [SSCI Report, pages 36-37]
"...According to a foreign government service, Niger as of early this year planned to send several tons of uranium to Iraq under an agreement concluded late last year.
Iraq and Niger had been negotiating the shipment since at least early 1999, but the state court of Niger only this year approved it, according to the service...
The quantity of yellowcake to be transferred could support the enrichment of enough uranium for at least one nuclear weapon..."

Pollari's initial assertions could be written off as a beginner's mistake. He had just assumed the direction of the Sismi that month after a stint as the Cesis vice-director. Perhaps he had been duped into accepting the dossier as authentic by old Sismi hands.


It is however difficult to believe in the ensuing weeks that he had not personally verified a story that was as hot as molten steel. He was used to doing it. "I don't trust anyone in here," is his refrain. Above all he personally controls [everything] when it's obvious the CIA wants more out of the Italians. Whatever Pollari may have been aware of with the first cable, his tone did not change with the second and third reports sent to Virginia. The information is always the same. Some details added in. But no other source.  The origin and the scope [of the dossier]- never denounced to the allies- is the same old nonsense thrown together by Totò, Peppino and Malafemmina.

To err is human, to persist is diabolic. By February 5th, 2002, Pollari's secret service provided a "verbatim text" of the Iraq-Niger accord (SSCI Report, page 37).

...an [intelligence] analyst testified before the Senate that he did not recall "a report as detailed as this one for similar transactions of uranium." The INR continued to doubt it. They asked "if the source was willing to take a lie-detector test." A CIA analyst wanted to know the origins of the information from the Directory of Operations and he was told that it was "a very reliable source." With the guarantee of Fort Braschi [Sismi headquarters] la Signora in via Antonio Baiamonti, 10 goes from one success to another. Just like the dossier that had been "cleaned up" by the Sismi racketeers. The package can continue its triumphal march.

The authors of the article continue in detail to relate the persistence of the Italian services in "giving wine to an alcoholic" as so aptly said recently by a CIA hand. Many of the points brought up have been discussed in the excellent on-going dossier at Left Coaster, but from the Italian viewpoint. In the past ten days here in Italy there has been a rush to cover-up and downplay the continuous stream of revelations, not only by the Italian government and the services but also by parties and the media of both political spectrums, ranging from the smear-and-spin tactics often used by the Berlusconi press to short-sighted discounting by the left.

Yesterday, the Minister of Defence, Antonio Martino, saw no better than to once again declare that the services had utterly nothing to do with the Niger forgeries, and that the present journalistic campaign is  "a clumsy political operation to give credit to a make-believe thesis that our government was pro-war."  Martino pointed out that the Italian contingent is in Iraq for "humanitarian and peace-keeping" reasons, and he hoped that "in a day not far off our military can refer to Iraq as a mission accomplished."

As often happens in the Italian panorama, distinctions are blurred, and with the elections coming up in a distant April 2006, perhaps the Left does not want to aggravate the White House. After all, as both Left Coaster and la Repubblica point out, the Senate Report declared, "There were no obvious inconsistencies in the names of officials mentioned or the dates of the transactions in any of the three reports." With fact-finding like this we can all sleep safely, mindless of what sleep may generate.

Cross-posted by rom wyo at Booman and Kos.

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I inadvertently deleted this diary a few minutes ago. My apologies to whataboutbob for his encouraging comment as well as the recommendations. Thanks anyway!
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Fri Nov 11th, 2005 at 07:33:49 PM EST
The one English language blogger who's been on top of this story and began investing it since 2003 is Josh Marshall. Check him out, he dug a lot of information.

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
by Bernard on Sat Nov 12th, 2005 at 02:36:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Josh Marshall has been pushing (and investigating) this meme for awhile, and he believes it is a huge story that hasn't fully emerged yet. I suspect that there are many connecting threadas that lead to different places. (Thus my tangled web comment from before...).

Please keep this pieces coming, De Gondi...

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia

by whataboutbob on Sat Nov 12th, 2005 at 04:48:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Both Josh Marshall and Laura Rozen have been on this case for a long time. Both have investigated leads and made significant contributions.

When the forged docs first surfaced in July 2003, Gary Leupp did an interesting piece for starts. There've been a lot of good small contributions by many bloggers over the past two years.

Left Coaster has recently done a great job of summing up the present state of the affair.

Carlo Bonini and Giuseppe D'Avanzo were the first to reveal the story both in Italy and the US through Newsweek. It's important to watch them.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Sat Nov 12th, 2005 at 06:03:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If I recall, in your first comment- now cancelled by my mistake- you asked what could possibly happen in Italy over this affair.

It's perfectly normal that the Sismi and the Berlusconi government deny any involvement in passing knowingly false intelligence to a foreign allied agency. It would be self-incriminating. I think it would come under anti-constitutional sabotage or the more down-to-earth abuse of office for private interests. Falsifying documents would appear to be a minor offense. Also, I can't see the Niger government issuing international arrest warrants over this.

Italian intelligence officers have been tried and condemned in the past. Francesco Pazienza for abuse of office in the Billygate affair, then again for the Bologna Train Station Massacre along with General Pietro Musumeci and Colonel Giuseppe Belmonte. Others such as General Miceli beat the rap by getting elected to parliament.

In the present case it's going to be very hard to press charges or investigate for that matter. The government immediately opposed state secrecy on the affair when it broke which precluded large areas of investigation.

As for a parliamentary investigation, it will certainly not happen under this government.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Sat Nov 12th, 2005 at 06:37:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
public?
by Upstate NY on Sun Nov 13th, 2005 at 10:14:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not in Italy.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Sun Nov 13th, 2005 at 11:22:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The info at the Left Coaster comes from eRiposte: there is a wealth of work done at this site and it should be supported. Follow the link and take a look around.
by wanderindiana (wanderindiana at gmail dot com) on Sun Nov 13th, 2005 at 09:53:49 AM EST
At some point, someone may also investigate the origin of the other forged document that came out of MI5.

We know a few facts about it:

  1. Colin Powell at the UN cited a document that he received from MI5.

  2. The document was quickly found to be a plagiary of a poorly sourced masters thesis from a student at the Monterey School of International Studies.

  3. The essay had previously appeared in the journal of foreign affairs edited by Daniel Pipes, and Mr. Fried and Ledeen.

  4. The claims in the paper were trash, wholly unsubstantiated lies.

How did MI5 come into possession of this document? I would be bottom dollar that the source of both the Niger Document and the Mi5 forgery were on and the same. They tried to cleanse both documents by passing them on to the secret services of allies. They intended to wash the paper by sending on a circuitous route to make it seem as though the bogus evidence actually left the country. In this respect, both the UK and Italy are complicitous. The men in charge are Neo-Cons either working in the White House or affiliated with it. The Larry Franklin story is also part of the puzzle.

If this story gets swept under the rug, it will be a severe blow to democracy around the world. And I am not being hyperbolic when I state that.

by Upstate NY on Sun Nov 13th, 2005 at 10:19:44 AM EST
What you refer to is the sexed up pastiche put together by Alastair Campbell and a doped MI6. There were some strong rows over the dossier between Tinkerbell and David Omand who accused Alastair of using too much "magic dust."

The plagiarized article appeared in the review MERIA, authored by  Ibrahim al-Marashi. It discussed a scenario that was twelve years before, 1990-91. Not only was it outdated, the author conceded that there were some errors.

MERIA is not, nor was, edited by the persons you cite.

Reporter Sean Boynes 1997 article for Jane's Intelligence Review was also plagiarized and misquoted in the trashy dossier.

Be that as it may, the bottom line was that a purportedly mature and adult Secretary of State made a total ass of himself in front of the international community. Even if he got his little war.

For a good sum up of that story,
here
or
the Guardian
. There is also the
very important work
done by Dr. Glen Rangwala.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Sun Nov 13th, 2005 at 07:22:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is how Counterpunch reported the MERIA plagiary:

"Marashi's essay was published in the Middle East Review of International Affairs in Sept 2002, a scholarly magazine run by the GLORIA Center (acronym for Global Research in International Affairs Center) in Herzliya, Israel. Its director is Barry Rubin, who has also been a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy -- an Israel policy think tank. Rubin is part of the coterie--which includes Daniel Pipes, Michael Ledeen, and the arch conspirator Richard Perle--who have been pressing for a US attack on Iraq.

Marashi told Raposa that the documents on which he had based his paper had been given him by Kenaan Makiya, a well-known Iraqi exile, and proponent of invasion, much favored by Powell's own State Department. Makiya claims to have some 4 million pages of documents seized from northern Iraq after Operation Desert Storm."

Rubin is the director of MERIA and is in tight with Pipes and Ledeen. Furthermore, some of the administration's favorite NeoCon names sit on MERIA's Board of Editors.

by Upstate NY on Sun Nov 13th, 2005 at 08:12:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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