In their loathing of Labour and its leader, Wouter Bos, the Christian-Democrats and the Liberals found the Social-Liberals willing to form a majority after the 2003 elections. Under the failing (wavering/ridiculous/unpopular) leadership of Jan Peter Balkenende, the sole reason this coalition is still together is the beating it takes in the polls (the coalition consistently loses 20 seats out their bare majority of 76 in the polls) and the feeling it can't get any worse in the time left. Plus, there is the hope they will create some kind of legacy by the time the elections are held. Where do things stand now and what's up with the Left opposition? Read more after the fold.

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The problem facing the parties is this: there have been three major parties, Labour on the left, the Christian CDA at the center and the VVD (Liberals) on the right. After the beating the CDA took in '98 the rank-and-file were nervous that they might get knocked out as the 2002 elections got nearer- and a leadership challenge ensued where Jan Peter Balkenende appeared as the third dog that got the bone.

As a new candidate who won the election, times where pretty rough on him. The appearance of List Pim Fortuyn, minus Pim, made his government unsustainable. For more on this, read my earlier post. His leadership failed, and he made a continued joke of himself. After the 2003 elections, the VVD was reluctant to join a coalition with him because of his proven leadership style. But Balkenende's rejection of Labour made him dependant on the VVD. This set the general direction of his second government, as the VVD bargained pretty hard.

'Normally' Labour would aim for a coalition with the CDA. But Labour wound up feeling mistreated from the coalition negotiations, and strongly rejects the current policies. The CDA doesn't like Labour because they feel they've been mistreated at the same negotiations. These feelings of betrayal run very, very deep. They also seem to feel that the country needs reform, and that a `rightish' way of doing so would be the best. [It is important to remember that the coalition between CDA-VVD-List Pim Fortuyn was pretty much the only possible coalition in the composition of seats after the 2002 elections].

Because the CDA took a right turn (at first because they had to, now they seem to believe in what they say) Labour started looking to the left. It also ignited a more `militant tendency' in the parliamentarians who argued forcefully against government proposals and took to the streets with the Socialist and Green parties in protest.

Because the CDA looked to the right, Labour didn't have to hold back anymore. This isn't to say they suddenly turned into an extremist party, just into an opposition party instead of a party looking for power. CDA didn't like this, drove Labour even further away, and Labour began collaborating with the Greens and the Socialist Party. This was new, since it was a policy of Labour never to vote `aye' on bills introduced by the Socialist Party (Labour didn't want to give the SP credibility) and Labour wasn't really fond of the Green party either.

So what does the `left' consist of:

- Labour. An `old', established party which has governed for a long time. It still is the home of many labourers and (now that the economy has become service-driven) middle-class teachers, healthcare workers and the unions. It has many career politicians in its ranks, but far less than there used to be since many left parliament after the crushing 2002 defeat to find new/better jobs. There seems to be a certain desire to turn things around in the party, but at the same time the leadership is uncertain about doing so with the Greens and the SP for fear of losing the middle ground. They have a young, energetic, handsome leader in Wouter Bos, former Shell executive, who perfected the trade of not saying anything that could alienate voters. A very successful policy when you have Balkenende running around making gaffes every day.
Polls: around 50 seats (now 42)

-The Greens. The successor of environmental, communist and other progressive parties has turned into a green/left/social-liberal hydra. It is an elitist party, appealing more to the well educated than the general mass- they are more about ideas than policies, though the policies they do set forth are usually pretty good. They set themselves apart from Labour by caring more about the environment and coming up with `creative solutions' to problems that unions don't really like. Nuance is the key-word here. Their image is a bit `old politics' which they want to get rid of- but they don't appeal to many people because nuance isn't popular and other parties appeal more. The only party with a female leader.
Polls: Stuck around 10 (now 8)

-The Socialist Party. As left-wing as they get. Incredible effective party-machine (I'm not just saying this because I'm a member) with a large amount of resources because all members who fill elected positions donate their salary to the party which pays back a median income- like 25% of what they pay the party (this policy is a bit controversial, but it still stands). "No party without action" is their motto, and they've reaped local elective successes over the last years. The iron curtain around them appears to fall down as they govern successfully on local level. The SP has run the opposition campaigns against the government, and really is the face of the opposition because Wouter Bos doesn't want to hurt his own chances. Their biggest asset is at the same time the biggest liability: Jan Marijnissen, the leader of the party (in parliament ánd chairman of the party at the same time- he runs the machine) is the best liked politician in the country- but the support is often based around his persona, and he's the public face of the party so it's a wild guess what will happen when he steps down (he'll continue till probably 2011). He has never got any degree (dropped out of gymnasium to work at a sausage factory) which gives him street-cred with workers and he talks `straight talk'. Appeals to the lefties, workers, people on benefits, and people who look for an alternative on the left embodied in Marijnissen(this last group is pretty big, and comes from all over the political spectrum)
Polls: around 20 (now 9)

Last time around (2003) voters bailed ship from the SP and the Greens to try and put Labour in the Prime Ministers mansion (called the Catshuis). But this time Labours support has broadened significantly- I reckon because CDA's policies don't reflect too well on its base (older church-going people, who are pretty left on economic issues) and it loses voters to Labour.

The big question for the next election will be this: Labour and Bos will have to define themselves (or others will do it for them). How will they do it? The VVD and CDA have already done it (and suffered for it in the polls) but they know what they stand for. As the election approaches, the CDA can turn left and become more moderate to make it more appealing to the all-important centre (where Labour and the CDA usually reside).

Labour is in a tough spot right now- riding high because of voter disillusion with the current government. Bos' has said few things about where he wants the party to go- and can only hope that he'll stay successful as Labour gets its program together for the election. It remains to be seen if voters see Bos as credible enough in the run-up to the election- and he could lose serious votes if the economy would magically improve, or creates the suggestion that it might. Labour probably won't take a left turn because the left field is pretty crowded as is, and it would leave the center open. It would also be a stunning reversal of the party that proudly stated in the mid-90s that it has shook off its ideological feathers. Will Labour succeed in branding itself as the logical, wise and progressive answer to years of neoliberal policies? Only time will tell.

There is another another big question: what will happen if Labour wins? Will the `old' party resurface and start pushing the CDA (Which probably would have to ditch Balkenende and a couple of other `rightish' leaders if a coalition were to take place) ? Or will they look to the left and combine forces with the Greens and the SP (who have no governing experience- though this doesn't have to be a bad thing)?

Irritation with the CDA and its policies in the Labour ranks would suggest the second. But you never know. One comforting thought though: the new chairman of the Labour Party, Michiel van Hulten, campaigned on a platform of left-wing collaboration. And polls show that while `only' 31% of the electorate prefers a Labour/Greens/SP coalition a multichoice poll, the current administration polls at only 10%.

Of course, I completely neglected the neo-Fortuynist Geert Wilders (whom I've interview once for a school project!) and TV personality Peter R de Vries who might run with a new party called PRDV (notice how similar the name of his party is to his initials). I've done this for two reasons: it might get confusing, and I don't think they will be of much significance. They lack the finesse and appeal to turn into a Fortuyn.

More on Balkenende, the Christian-Democrats and the VVD later.