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Countdown to 100$ oil (19) - Your bets for 2006

by Jerome a Paris Tue Dec 27th, 2005 at 06:47:47 PM EST

Well, barring a major geopolitical event in the next two days, it looks like my bet on 100$/bl oil by the end of this year will be conclusively lost. I will announce the winner of the price forecast contest (from both the DailyKos thread and the  Eurotrib thread) from last August this weekend or early next week, but, undaunted, I'd like to take bets on 2006.

This time, I have four questions. Each will have, like this year, a prize consisting of a bottle of, at your choice, French champagne or whiskey.

I'll kindly ask that you recommend this diary so that as many people as possible can take the bet.

Oil is currently around 56-57$/bl (the above graph is for Brent, from oilnergy.com), and briefly touched 70$/bl right after Katrina hit. So, pretty impressive prices, but not quite 100$/bl yet. Natural gas prices got closer, with prices briefly going over 90$/boe (barrel of oil equivalent - use the price per mbtu and multiply by 5.9) in early December, but that's not what we bet on...

With hindsight, the natural gas story has been even more dramatic than the oil one, with still a fairly high probability of shortages this winter in both the USA and the UK, following the faster than expected decline of domestic production and the extensive damage to Gulf of Mexico infrastructure by Katrina and Rita. This year is the year that the bright future of gas-fired power plants met an untimely death, which begs the question of what will replace it - wind (but to what extent?), coal (but whither emissions and global warming?), nuclear (but what do we do with the waste?).

But the lessons on the oil front are not very encouraging.

  • first, the trend, taken over a long period, looks pretty bad:

  • second, the price increases, unlike in previous years, have been caused by demand growth, and not by (mostly artificial) supply shortages. Supply is now barely coping to follow demand, and spare capacity remains extremely low, thus putting the markets in danger from any crisis or unexpected event (terrorist attack, strike, accident in a critical facility, weather event, etc...). OPEC is enjoying its relative powerlessness to bring prices down, and is not investing to add capacity, and neither are, it seems, many other countries. Oil majors are being squeezed increasingly by host countries, and are having a difficult time replacing their reserves;

  • third, the price increases this year have not prevented demand from still growing. This confirms the expectations that oil demand is very much price-inelastic (i.e. it varies little with price), and thus that much bigger price increases will be needed if we end up needing actual demand destruction. 2005 has seen very mild demand growth from China after the records in 2004

    but this is unlikely to last with the continuing strong growth of that country and the increasing numbers of Chinese people able to afford a car.

Having thus established by bearish credentials, and living true to the cartoon above, here are my questions:

  1. What will be the highest price for oil in 2006? (As usual, you may choose your benchmark. If not provided, WTI will be the default option). And as an additional twist to that question (to be used to determine the winner if needed), what will be the proximate cause of that high?

  2. What will be the year-end price for oil in late December 2006?

  3. Same questions for natural gas: year high, and end-year prices, in $/mbtu, using Henry Hub (prices in $/boe will be accepted as well)

  4. On what date will 100$/bl oil be reached? And same addendum - what will be the proximate cause?

You can also take the (anonymous) poll on that last one.

My own bet:

  1. Highest: 240$/bl, after a US bombing raid on Iranian nuclear facilities, in October
  2. Year-end 90$/bl
  3. Natgas highest: 25$/mbtu after a cold spell in March. Year-end: 17$/mbtu
  4. 100$/bl oil reached in October

Your turn.

Earlier "Countdown Diaries":
Countdown to 100$ oil (18) - OPEC happy with oil above 50$
Countdown to 100$ oil (17) - Does it matter politically? A naked appeal for your support
Countdown to 100$ oil (16) - We'll know on Monday
Countdown to 100$ oil (15) - the impact on your electricity bill
Countdown to 100$ oil (14) - Greenspan acknoweldges peak oil
Countdown to 100$ oil (13) - Katrina strikes / refinery crisis
Countdown to 100$ oil (12) - Al-Qaeda, oil and Asian financial centers
Countdown to 100$ oil (11) - it's Greenspan's fault!
Countdown to 100$ oil (10) - Simmons says 300$ soon - and more
Countdown to 100$ oil (9) - I am taking bets
Countdown to 100$ oil (8) - just raw data
Countdown to 100$ oil (7) - a smart solution: the bike
Countdown to 100$ oil (6) - and the loser is ... Africa
Countdown to 100$ oil (5) - OPEC inexorably raises floor price
Countdown to 100$ oil (4) - WSJ wingnuts vs China
Countdown to 100$ oil (3) - industry is beginning to suffer
Countdown to 100$ oil (2) - the views of the elites on peak oil
Countdown to 100$ oil (1)

Crossposted on DailyKos for your kind recommendations:

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Dec 27th, 2005 at 06:55:30 PM EST
Meteor Blades $61.05  crude not stated
DoDo          $60 WTI  
Friend of Libery  $57.88  WTI <++++ projected winner
Me               $52.5 WTI (frigging Katrina )
Twin Planet      $51.44 spot FOB WTI whatever that means

Today's close $57.8 and looking heavy.  I don't see a $2.60 drop by friday though(damn it).  If it should happen, I'd rather you give the approx value to your favorite charity than waste a fortune shipping 2 bottles of alcohol 12,000 km around the world.

by HiD on Wed Dec 28th, 2005 at 04:09:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If it should happen, I'd rather you give the approx value to your favorite charity than waste a fortune shipping 2 bottles of alcohol 12,000 km around the world.

Being an abstainer, I second that. Preferably, some charity benefitting a group Sarko dissed, say to some charity giving winter places for homeless people in Paris.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Dec 28th, 2005 at 11:47:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Today's close $57.8 and looking heavy.

It's $59.05 right now - looking brighter for me :-)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Dec 28th, 2005 at 11:48:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
nah, API stats will show big builds in heat and gas tmw AM.  It's gonna dump (or maybe I'm completely wrong, it's a crapshoot)
by HiD on Thu Dec 29th, 2005 at 12:23:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's $60.50 now (going dangerously close for making not me but Meteor Blades the winner), does that mean you were wrong? (I'm not an energy trader, don't know what to look for)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Dec 29th, 2005 at 01:59:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I found this:

Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose above $60 a barrel in New York amid concern that falling U.S. gasoline inventories will leave stockpiles inadequate to meet demand.

``The strength in gasoline is supporting crude oil,'' said Phil Flynn, vice president of risk management at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``It is a little early to be concerned about gasoline, but supplies have continued to trail year-ago levels week after week. Supplies are tight even with the high production rate and imports.''

Gasoline supplies fell 1.2 million barrels to 202.9 million in the week ended Dec. 23, according to the Energy Department. A 250,000 barrel decline was expected, according to the median of forecasts by 13 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Inventories of crude oil rose 118,000 barrels to 322.6 million. Stockpiles were forecast to drop 500,000 barrels.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Dec 29th, 2005 at 02:16:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm wrong.  

It's pretty odd for mogas to be drawing this time of year.  But that will get a lot of folks bidding up the entire complex betting that spring will be red hot.

If too many people try to buy say April/May timeframe futures, the only sellers left will be market makers who will hedge by buying the front months.  It's not like there is any real shortage of mogas in Feb (the liquid contract now).  It's just the only place to get enough liquidity to hedge against the outers.

Also, the price spread from now to April is almost 15 cts/gallon.  Some of that is quality differences but the rest implies plenty of supply now, with a lot of speculation that April/May will be very tight.  Traders will be working to fill tanks now and hedge to sell in May.  Refiners, especially export refiners in Europe, will make summer mogas in winter if a trader offers enough of a premium price.

I was too often on the bearish side.  Character flaw.

by HiD on Thu Dec 29th, 2005 at 04:30:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
actually data does lie.  The DOE/API stats aren't that accurate, but the industry reacts to them pretty strongly.
by HiD on Thu Dec 29th, 2005 at 04:31:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Meteor Blades won, he was right to one cent...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sat Dec 31st, 2005 at 11:30:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
  1. Highest: $160 due to unrest in the majority-Shia oil-producing north-east of Saudi Arabia.
  2. Year-end: $80.
  3. Natgas highest: $30/mbtu in September after NZ runs out of gas and the peak of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season takes the US Gulf Coast off-line again. Year-end: $20/mbtu.
  4. Ramadan 2006, that is: between 09/23/2006 and 10/22/2006.

This is just because I have to choose something different from your bet, which I find completely reasonable except for the $240...

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Dec 27th, 2005 at 07:34:55 PM EST
Being an hair-on-fire kind of guy, I loved this bet and now want to find out if there will be any takers on my wager - Countdown to the Great take back - 2006. A while back, an economist on NPR stated his thesis, that the real reason for the stock market crash of 1987 was the federal deficit. From the time of Reagan's enthronement to the fall of 1987, the federal government had run up almost 2 and a half trillion dollars of deficit and they had no intention of changing their deficit spending ways. Foreign investors, and other traders, came in and took that amount back. That recession was shallow and short as the pain was put off for another generation as that debt was not paid back. But the equity value lost in the markets in '87 was almost an exact amount to the deficit incurred.

So, my thesis is that the same disapproving foreign investors (and hedge funds) will pull out that much, plus the three trillion we've run up since the enthronement of Bush the II, and, it will happen this year. Incrementally, mind you, so it won't be a crash, but a slow motion car accident. It will come in three or four spurts. The first big shot across the bow will happen when Bush rattles his sword (towards Iran and Syria) during the SOTU, and then drops a 100bl IOU note on Congress' front stoop, a clear sign of Bush's continued belicosity and fiscal irresponsibility. The second will be when Iran starts their oil bourse in the spring. Each season throughout the summer, fall and winter will have nauseating steps down, with the collapse of the dollar (2-to-1 euro), $100 bl oil, and 14% interest rates. Domestic prices for gas will go to five  dollars, and impeachment hearings will have started.

When all is said and done, the Great Take back of 2006 will leave the Dow at 4,000 and the NASDAQ at 850.

Any takers?

by colonelkurtz on Wed Dec 28th, 2005 at 02:21:08 AM EST
absolutely.  the markets will not fall to those levels, IMHO.  and I would back that up with some currency.
by wchurchill on Wed Dec 28th, 2005 at 02:33:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
1.Highest: $80 due to some unrest in Middle East, but also just normal variation around the mean.
2.Year-end: $58.
3.Natgas highest: $16/mbtu. Year-end: $12/mbtu.  No real event on the highest, just variation around the mean.  
4. $100 per barrel will not be reached in 2006.  Cause is if the year high is $80, I don't think we can mathmatically reach $100 <snark>

Does Louis XIII qualify as the reward?

by wchurchill on Wed Dec 28th, 2005 at 02:34:55 AM EST
2006 WAGs (wild ass guesses)  All front month WTI on the day.

1)  Highest touch on WTI at any point intra day
$ 77.75.  Iraq civil war stops exports and sets oil world on edge.

  1.  Year end $55.00

  2.  Year High  $14.5, year end  $9.00.  

Both Henry Hub in normal units.  Nat gas will slump in 2006 as drilling will go wild, Hedges for petchem and fertilizer guys will be gone so production will slump and therefore demand for nat gas drop.  Ditto electricity generation.  nat gas turbines aren't economic at these prices so demand will wane.

4)  $100 WTI won't occur until 2009.  

by HiD on Wed Dec 28th, 2005 at 03:53:41 AM EST
we used to call these a SWAG--scientific wild ass guess.
by wchurchill on Wed Dec 28th, 2005 at 12:02:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
(First, I don't think we'll cross $100/bl in 2005 dollars in 2006.)

(Second, if there is a big bolus of inflation, that could change, so I'm using 2005 dollars as a reference.)

(Third, my prediction includes an estimated 12.5% inflation along with the demand increase in China, but a demand slowing in the US as we slide into recession.)

1. Highest price in 2006: October (of course) due to Hurricanes.  $84 (in 2005 dollars).  Accounting for 12.5% inflation (2005->2006), this could be nearly as high as $100 ($97.87), but I'm predicting it stays below $100.

1a.  Should it hit $100, both options on the CALL and PUT side will have a profound effect upon prices so you might see it BOUNCE off $100 before driving right through.

1b.  It won't stay above that point for long, again because of the unwinding of the options.  A lot of money will change hands, but we'll end up below that.  (In essence, crossing $100 will be because someone is trying to manipulate the market and make money on options.)

  1. Year-end 2006: $91 (in 2006 dollars, or about $81 in 2005 dollars).

  2. Natgas BOE $115 (2006 dollars)

  3. $100/bl reached in August (AUGUST) 2007 at the first sign of a hurricane headed for the Gulf. (in 2007 dollars)

  • Inflation is real and present.  Whether they measure it or not.  The lack of an M3 published measure is disturbing and makes me wonder about the wording of the FED's governers' statements.  

  • I expect a deep recession in 2007 -- so deep that some guys in China will be jumping out of buildings because they're too leveraged.  Not to the point of a depression, but a 1987-style correction.

Happy little moron, lucky little man. I wish I was a moron, my God, perhaps I am! -- Spike Milligan
by polecat on Wed Dec 28th, 2005 at 10:53:41 AM EST
Polecat, I asked some weeks back in another diary about the political/economic significance of stopping the M3 series. I explicitly asked "what are they hiding"? Maybe you'd like to elaborate?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Dec 28th, 2005 at 05:16:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
  1. $91 WTI (kcurie, you convinced me!), due to combination of months-long speculative rally on back of supply/demand problems and US conflict with Iran
  2. $70
  3. Have no clue
  4. ÍNot in 2006 (I bet 2008)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Dec 28th, 2005 at 11:36:52 AM EST
To distinguish my bet from polecat's, I change 1) to $91.05.

I also add that I bet in 2008, not only $100 but $300 will be crossed.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Dec 28th, 2005 at 11:45:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There's no way that the US would bomb Iran in October - you just have to look at the pattern of attempts to bring the Iran issue to the boil at the IAEA meetings during the September to November time frame; it got deferred every time as there was a hurricane on the horizon!

My default position with regards to the current oil price is that the market will bear the $55-$65 price range quite happily.

If the Iran bombing scenario is discounted as highly unlikley, then the principal risk factors are either climate or pipeline sabotage. Obviously, if the Bush administration does do the dirty then all predictions regarding outcomes go haywire, as we will be in uncharted territory. There was a period in late October when my 2  key factors combined, with the removal of 350 kbpd from Iraq to Turkey due to some spectacular pipeline sabotage, that has only recently been rectified, and approx. 1.1 mpbd were offline due to hurricanes. Fortunately the hurricanes took out refineries as well, thereby reducing demand for crude! The big difference next year will be the BTC pipeline which should be able to deliver an additional 1 million bpd to the world market, unless it gets sabotaged ( difficult as it is largely buried ).

It's possible that there will be a new top during the summer should there be another hurricane season; I'm, reliably informed that these are annual events. My top for the year will be $72.50 for Brent crude, and the end of year will be $62.00 for Brent crude.

The natural gas price will depend on how the rest of the winter pans out: if it's normal then the price pressure will remain on the upside, and there will be supply problems as the year progresses, mainly due to the current gap with UK supplies that is unlikely to close before 2007. If it remains warmer than the long-term average then the prices should be about 10-15% less. I'm guessing at a high of $29.00, with an end of year price of $22.00.

We will not see oil at $100 per barrel in 2006.

by londanium on Wed Dec 28th, 2005 at 11:47:34 AM EST
1) $115 - Late '06 US bombs Iran, Kurds secede, and both Iraq and Iran oil production goes offline. Unlike during Katrina, other countries hold on to their strategic reserves.
2)Ends around $95
3)$14 high, $10 end - I agree with some of the other comments that there will be demand destruction in gas.
4)November 06. I think there will be a lot of tough talk before the election, but a strike only comes after. Shiites stop cooperating after the strike on Iran, and the Kurds take it as their signal to bow out of the grand coalition.
by toad on Wed Dec 28th, 2005 at 07:00:17 PM EST
both Iraq and Iran oil production goes offline

I think if THAT happened, oil would go $200. At least.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Thu Dec 29th, 2005 at 02:01:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm going to bet oil ends '06 somewhere in the neighborhood of $70-$80 (let's say $77, since I'm leaning to the higher of the two).  $90, max.

I don't think it will be a stable rise, for one reason alone: terrorism.  I'm betting unrest continues throughout the Mid-East (not just in the obvious case of Iraq), with the possibility of severe attacks in Saudi Arabia and perhaps the US, Western Europe, (perhaps) Australia, and a few parts of Asia.

A attack on Continental Europe would not be stunning to me, unfortunately.  The spooks in Germany, France and Italy have been picking up signs of activity for quite some time now, and I'm not optimistic after the London bombings and (two weeks later) the failed attempts.  Radical extremists do seem to have more of a presence in Europe than I had first thought.  I hope I'm wrong.

That's a little beyond just oil, but I don't see 2006 as being the best of years.  It's certainly possible that we'll see a recession begin in the US, looking at how the housing market was slammed last month.  (Median prices fell on the order of roughly $14k, as I recall.)  But I'm betting it hits in either late-'06 or early-'07.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Dec 28th, 2005 at 07:46:26 PM EST
  1. The $100/bl will be breached in November 2006, due to Wall Street chrash right after the midterm elections. Yeah, Karl Rove will keep economy "booming" until then, but not further. The election results: repubs barely keep the majorities in both houses, but the moral of both repubs and dems will be low (whatever way you look). The need to contain the Bush administration will be obvious, but the Congress will look more dysfunctional than the German parlament of this year.
  2. and 2. End of the year: $123/bl. There is no way back after the crash.
  3. Peak at the end of the year: $32/mbtu. Everyone is crazy or depressed.
by das monde on Wed Dec 28th, 2005 at 09:04:28 PM EST
I'll not bet, because I think the price of oil and gas is too dependent on variables that can't be predicted.

It could go way up, for various reasons. Many have already been listed, but consider also the effects that Venezuela might have on the market, or the possibility that a new version of OPEC might get organized (say one that controls coal, or that includes Russian and Quataran natural gas). Iran is still out there, and the U.S. could go off the deep end (or so could Europe) if Iran were to continue to push her nuclear programs.

Or it could stay constant, if OPEC decides that some stablity is needed.

Alternatively, the evangelical right in America could force the White House to undertake an aggressive energy conservation program. That's not too likely, I agree, but the scenario could develop like this: GM and Ford both declare bankruptcy and go under government protection, thus are relieved from competitive pressure and can make any sort of cars they want, just when the "Creation Care" movement gets going and Bush is scrambling for any last glimmer of control. Presto-chango, U.S. demand for gasoline plummets and the worldwide price of oil drops. Unlikely, but not impossible.

There are just too many variables. You might as well flip a coin...

by asdf on Wed Dec 28th, 2005 at 11:37:36 PM EST
Just as a guide for all, here's the NYMEX futures market at today's close:

            Feb 06   June 06   Dec06  dec07  Dec08 dec10
WTI        59.86     61.41     62.46  61.91  61.81 57.56
HHub gas   11.63      10.3     11.45  10.56  9.62   8.21
Heat        1.71       1.69     1.83   xxx   xxx    xxx

by HiD on Thu Dec 29th, 2005 at 12:33:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
  1. $93.75(Bush fucking around in Iran)
  2. $68.20
  3. high $19mtbu, Year End $16
  4. $100 will be reached 2011
by bebacker on Sat Dec 31st, 2005 at 10:13:25 PM EST
1 highest price for oil in 2006?


2 year-end price for oil, 2006?


3 (I plead too much ignorance to even form wild guesses about natural gas prices.  Crudely, however--expect screaming)

4 On what date will 100$/bl oil be reached? And cause?

Spike starting in September, as the combination of continued Bushmanagement of affairs in/with the Mid-East AND hurricane season effects create major market jitters.  Spike peaks Oct 5th, and has major impacts on the US elections.

How oft the sight of means to do ill deeds Makes ill deeds done. Shakespeare; King John

by ogre (p-mclaughlin@REMOVETHIScox.net) on Sun Jan 1st, 2006 at 05:17:51 AM EST
forgot to comment that I think that the US$ will slide some during the year as the chrome-plated cheap plastic fittings come off the bush "recovery".  Part of the price rise will be felt more in the USA because it's in dollars... which won't be worth as much.

I'm guessing that by 2007, we'll see oil pegged to some sort of standard basket of currencies, including the euro and the dollar, diminishing the dollar's importance....

How oft the sight of means to do ill deeds Makes ill deeds done. Shakespeare; King John

by ogre (p-mclaughlin@REMOVETHIScox.net) on Sun Jan 1st, 2006 at 05:21:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
At last -- I've found this thread and can place my bet.  I have no idea what I'm doing, but Jérôme has promised me chocolate shoes if I win.


I'll be happy to switch the prize to this if you participate and win, of course!

To which I accepted:

Okay, I'm printing this out as evidence!  My guess is, ummm, $87.03.  That's not even a S.W.A.G., it's a plain ol' W.A.G.  Do I need to register somewhere?  Are there forms to fill out?  Do we need a notary?
Wait, maybe I should see what Meteor says and make mine a penny more -- can I do that?  Is it too late??  ARGH!  I want those chocolate shoes!  Will they even make them next Christmas?  They're in the Unbossed colors and everything.  Maybe you should go to that store and ask them...

The confirmation (as well as a picture of the confection) can be found here.  So I guess it's official now and I have placed my fate on $87.03.

Maybe we can eventually make language a complete impediment to understanding. -Hobbes

by Izzy (izzy at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 3rd, 2006 at 12:42:41 AM EST
> What will be the highest price for oil in 2006?
190$ - when Iran closes the Hormuz Strait (from May to August; national reserves in most countries will keep price from going up even more)

> What will be the year-end price for oil in late December 2006?

3: no idea

> On what date will 100$/bl oil be reached? And same addendum - what will be the proximate cause?
May, 23rd 2006 -- see 1)


"Those who fight might lose, those who don't fight have already lost." - Berthold Brecht

by RavenTS on Mon Jan 23rd, 2006 at 06:41:52 AM EST
Well, I will be the bear in this market.  Crude is very overvalued right now, and although one cannot discount the effects of market disruptions, I think we have seen the top of the crude market for a while.  My assumption will be that 06 will look more like 04 than 05.  As of today (Jan 24) WTI is trading near $65 again.  

I believe that the high for 2006 will be early in the year (before March) and is not likely to top $70.  I will give a nominal high of $68.85 for the year.

At the end of 2006, we will see the price hovering around $45-$50...I will give a nominal price of $48.25 for WTI.  This assumes that hurricanes do not take out the priduction areas in the Gulf any more than Ivan in 2004.

Natural gas is in a freefall correction cycle now which will continue through the summer.  We have already seen the high for 2006 on January 3...$10.626 per MMBtu. (Just for fun, my prediction for the year low for NG is around $6.25 in the late Spring...)

Year end, the price of Natural Gas should be around $6.75...my prediction, a nominal price of $6.69.

I'd love to hear your feedback!  :-)

by oilman on Tue Jan 24th, 2006 at 04:53:44 PM EST

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