According to German wire service dpa, a little noted dispute between Russia and the Ukraine threatens to impair gas supplies to Western Europe as of January 1st.

From today's Frankfurter Rundschau: Ukrainian Energy Minister Seeks Solution in Moscow

Moscow/Kiev (dpa) - In the dispute over Russian gas supplies, the Ukrainian energy minister Iwan Platschkov is expected to arrive in Moscow today (Wednesday) for further negotiations. The conflict between the governments in Moscow and Kiev escalated further on Tuesday.

Russian defense minister Sergej Ivanow threatened to revoke recognition of Ukrainian borders. According to German utility companies, the threatened cessation of gas supplies to the Ukraine would also affect gas supplies in Western European countries.

Platschkov reported in Kiev on Tuesday evening that an agreement regarding a gradual increase in prices for Russian natural gas had already been reached. However, the Russian gas producer Gasprom denied this immediately.

Gasprom wants to stop supplying natural gas to the Ukraine effective 1 January in the event that Kiev refuses to accept a price that is almost five times higher. Russian industry minister Viktor Christenko stated that there will not be any better offer than the USD 230 (EUR 194) per 1000 cubic meters of gas demanded. Kiev's energy minister Platschkov threatened to withhold 15 percent of the Russian gas pumped through the country to Western Europe as a transit fee in the event that Gasprom suspends direct supply to the Ukraine.

A spokesperson for the German gas supplier Eon-Ruhrgas told the newspaper "Tagesspiegel" (Wednesday edition) that a possible suspension of gas supplies would also threaten Germany: "If the conflict goes on and the winter is very cold, we will reach our limits at some point." (in German)

Today's Rundschau also describes the background to this conflict. As one might expect, it's not about gas:

De facto, Russia is presenting the Ukraine with the bill for last winter's undesired regime change to the Western-oriented president Viktor Yushchenko. Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin had backed the other side, former minister president Viktor Yanukowitch, and experienced his most bitter foreign-policy defeat. "All the emotions that have built up between Moscow and Kiev following the victory of the 'Orange Revolution' are concentrated in a single cubic meter of gas," observed the Russian newspaper "Kommersant" on Tuesday.

It is also the first example of the new Putin Doctrine, according to which Russia will assert its great-power ambitions using its strong position as an energy supplier.

The article adds that the conflict threatens to spread to other issues: Kiev back-benchers are starting to claim that Russia pays too little for its Black Sea naval bases on Ukrainian territory, and the Russian defense minister counters by asserting that the granting of these bases is linked with Russia's recognition of the Ukraine's borders.

I am sure that others around here can better judge the likelihood worse will actually come to worst. But there seems to be an uncomfortable likelihood that those of us in Western Europe will learn what collateral damage feels like.