European Tribune - Community, Politics & Progress.

Unrest in China : 20 Reported Killed

by Francois in Paris
Sat Dec 10th, 2005 at 05:31:25 PM EST

Worrying news from China.

According to the NY Times (free reg required), police has shot at protesters with live bullets to quell a local riot and killed at least 20 people with dozens more missing.

Promoted by Colman: almost all the conventional wisdom on China is completely wrong as far as I can make out. A lot of this sort of thing seems to go on. See the comments for some good debate on the issue.

11-12-2005 : Two updates below the fold

China has seen continuous riots on local disputes for the past 15 years about unfair taxes, spoliations, corruption, you name it. It also has grown more sophisticated in dealing with those riots and developed over the years crowd control units, which are very brutal but generally avoid bloodsheds. And yet, this time it failed.

Especially interesting in the Times' article is that it makes very clear that the police did not open fire as a first resort but only when their usual ways failed.

The protesters were not afraid.

That is serious news.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Update 11-12-2005: At last, an official reaction by the way of Xinhua, a Chinese gvt-run news agency, as promised by local officials, quoted yesterday in this NY Times article
Reached by telephone, the deputy propaganda chief of Shanwei, which is 15 miles to the north and has jurisdiction over the village, said the national government would issue its first statement about the incident no later than Sunday.

Without surprise, the report dismisses the protesters as a mob lead by insurgents and acknowledges only 3 dead in the 10th paragraph with this darkly funny caveat:
Concerned government departments are still investigating in the exact cause of the death.

Curiously, I couldn't find a single reference to those events in the English edition of the People's Daily.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Update 11-12-2005: AFP reports:
A Chinese official who ordered security forces to open fire on protesters last week has been arrested, state media said, ending a news blackout on the clash but denying claims that scores were killed.

It looks like local authorities aren't feeling very comfortable.

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Unrest in China : 20 Reported Killed | 26 comments (26 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Unrest in China : 20 Reported Killed (none / 1)

I think the unrest in china is bigger than reported. A lof of small figths due to corruption in the local elites.

We will see what kind of reports come after this first piece.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Fri Dec 9th, 2005 at 02:54:05 PM EST

Re: Unrest in China : 20 Reported Killed (none / 1)

Civil unrest is huge and growing in China. Per the article, linked above:

By the government's tally there were 74,000 riots or other significant public disturbances in 2004, a big jump from previous years.

And that's the official figure ...

I don't know what I fear most with China. Continous repression by the gov or an all-out civil break down.

We have no eternal allies and we have no perpetual enemies.
Our interests are perpetual and eternal...
Lord Palmerston, 1848

by Francois in Paris on Fri Dec 9th, 2005 at 04:20:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unrest in China : 20 Reported Killed (none / 1)

I have the sense that like the old Soviet Union there is also the possible of central breakdown into regions.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Fri Dec 9th, 2005 at 04:55:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unrest in China : 20 Reported Killed (none / 0)

China has been unified since the 3rd century BCE... It would be a geopolitical event of cataclysmic proportion if China broke up.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Dec 9th, 2005 at 06:21:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unrest in China : 20 Reported Killed (none / 0)

Exactly.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Fri Dec 9th, 2005 at 07:22:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unrest in China : 20 Reported Killed (none / 1)

Yes and no.

Don't forget the warlordism of the erly 20th century, when China was essentially many countries for a long period fof time.

The West needs to get out ahead of this though. Sometime soon the shit's going to hit the fan, and unless we (the democratic west) counter the nationalist fires stoked by the communists we are going to have rogue nation the likes of which haven't been seen since Germany tried to take her place in the sun early last century.

The west needs to put pressure on the the Chinese leadership to allow independent unions and the free expression of faith. I don't expect China to be a democracy anytime soon, but I do think wee nedd to work to establish the insitutions of civil society for a peacecul transition. We can't change China, but we can make the recogntion of independent unions, and the right to practice your faith freely the entry fee to get Chinese goods into the US and the EU.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Fri Dec 9th, 2005 at 08:58:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unrest in China : 20 Reported Killed (4.00 / 7)

Ah, Chinese history, something close to my heart!

China has been unified since the 3rd century BCE...

Nope. China has been re-united every time it fell apart after 3rd century BC. (Each time with great cost in human lives, I note.)

Contrary to what others write here, falling apart was not the result of foreign invasion - on the contrary, foreign invaders were sometimes the re-unifiers, most notably the Mongols.

IMO the most notable disintegrations are:

the Three kingdoms era: East Han empire breaks up into Wei, Shi, Wu (220-280 AD)
the North-South dynasties era, with more stable Southern and less stable Northern states and dynasties, until reunification by the Shui Dynasty (280-581 AD)
the Five Dynasties/Ten Kingdoms era, a long-lasting warlord era (this time with the North more stable) between the Tang and Song dynasties (902-979)
the Southern Sung Dynasty era, when the South was a stable empire but the North progressively fell apart, then all was conquered by the Mongols - Marco Polo visited when the North was already conquered and Kubilai Khan took on the Southern Song (1127-1279)

The Three Kingdoms era, together with the preceding long disintegration of Eastern Han is kind of the chivalric age of China (much like the Sengoku period in Japan), romanticised in legends. The most famed battle of this period, the Battle of Red Cliffs in 208, is about to be put to film by John Woo as the most expensive Chinese film ever (according to IMDB, for release in 2007 only). Tho', I'm more fascinated by the immediately pre-imperial Warring States period.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Sat Dec 10th, 2005 at 01:42:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unrest in China : 20 Reported Killed (none / 0)

Yup, and it could happen again...

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sat Dec 10th, 2005 at 05:30:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

always (none / 0)

good to hear from an expert 8-9

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sat Dec 10th, 2005 at 07:03:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Economic growth a dubious blessing. (4.00 / 2)

Whether China is going to break up into smaller regions or not I am not going to get into (although I doubt it), but one thing is certain and that is that with a economic growth of 8-9 % and the accumulation of wealth without a fair distribution, the Chinese Government are going to have a huge socio-economic problem in their lap sooner rather than later.

We might have witnessed the start of this in 1989 with the student demonstrations ending in a bloodbath on Tiananmen Square. That was a sign of what might come, (Intellectuals are often the vanguard in expressing oppositional views). But in the last few years, people from outside the cities have began protesting, culminating in yesterdays riots. Most of these incidents have been spontaneous protest against local corruption and not in itself a protest against the central government, since most of the Chinese Communist Party's loyal supporter always have been farmers residing outside the big cities.

Now, with an seemingly increasing level of corruption, as a consequence of economic growth and thus a huge influx of foreign investors without a fair wealth distribution this might change. The Chinese authorities could, with their Turbo-capitalist reforms, be stepping into a minefield risking alienating the peasants, once their silent but loyal supporters and hence eroding their own powerbase.

Bitsofnews.com Giving you the latest bits.

by Gjermund E Jansen (gjans1@hotmail.com) on Fri Dec 9th, 2005 at 11:08:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unrest in China : 20 Reported Killed (4.00 / 2)

Uh, funny how you make a little comment and you find a whole thread the next day :)

So, ok. My comment was a bit too concise for its own good. I wasn't thinking of a geopolitical breakdown à la USSR but of rampant arnarchy with a destabilized/delegitimized central government. In itself, it would a Sino-Chinese problem and none of our business. The real issue would be that the central power would probably try to restore its hold by upping the ante, for instance to turn to ultra-nationalism and militarism.

And BTW, China has not been united for the past 5,000 years. Its history is much more complex with many invasions and a succession of foreign rulers. To the point that many things we consider as typically Chinese are actually Manchu, brought fairly recently (17th century AD) by the Qing, the last imperial dynasty.

The main theme of China's history is this permanent fight between centralized power and centrifuge forces, splitting the country apart. You need to know that if you want to understand a bit the utter strangeness that sometimes surrounds the relations between the PRC and Taiwan.

We have no eternal allies and we have no perpetual enemies.
Our interests are perpetual and eternal...
Lord Palmerston, 1848

by Francois in Paris on Sat Dec 10th, 2005 at 07:25:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unrest in China : 20 Reported Killed (4.00 / 2)

He, he, isn't that what this is all about? to write about an interesting topic, comment on it and let others ponder and dialog over it? :)

I just wanted to add the reason why I don't think it is likely that China split up into smaller regions.

China consists mostly of Han Chinese (about 91% of the population) and the rest of 55 other nationalities. But these nationalities are too small in size and so dispersed throughout China that a claim to an area would be impossible, except for Tibet, Taiwan and possibly Inner Mongolia.

Now, the Manchu's were highly sceptical to the Han Chinese when coming to power in 1644 and tried to force Manchu traditions upon them, but this failed and today the Manchu and the Han cultures and traditions are very much entwined, so much to the fact that the Manchu's are now in a minority although a significant one to the Hans in what was known as the old "Manchurian" areas. That could pretty much explain the confusion over what's Chinese (Han) and what's Manchu traditions. (The Han Chinese derives their name from the Han Dynasty and is a bit misleading because there is a wide diversity of distinct cultural and linguistic groups within that concept, but they are not big enough to define them as ethnically different).

Yes, the Chinese history are ridden with tensions and conflicts mostly warlords fighting it out with each other and sometimes with the central power. And that is why I do agree with you on this point. The rapid economic growth and accumulation of wealth with seemingly little or no fair distribution, China will risk having more of these rebellions. With an ever increasing part of the population moving into the cities the risk would increase even more, even if the Chinese Government have made plans for a massive export of Chinese labour in the years to come possibly to stem the tied of unskilled labour coming into the cities.

Bitsofnews.com Giving you the latest bits.

by Gjermund E Jansen (gjans1@hotmail.com) on Sat Dec 10th, 2005 at 10:40:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unrest in China : 20 Reported Killed (4.00 / 3)

I wouldn't say that the Manchu failed. They were, err... very forceful sometimes. But yes, it's the funny story about China. They always managed to absorb and assimilate their invaders one way or the other. Smart.

To come back to the subject at hand, those riots, what's the most probable outcome? I see three cases and I have no clue which one is the most likely:

The current fascists in place manage to hold the lid on the pressure cooker and maintain themselves in power, same old, same old.
Unrest grows and China spirals in a repressive vicious circle. The central government becomes ever more authoritarian and possibly ever more belligerent outside its borders as an escape valve for popular anger.
Unrest grows and, in conjunction with a middle class that's no longer content to just work and consume, forces at least some measure of democratization (the one outcome all would prefer, I presume).

It's widely believed that Tienanmen pretty killed the first wave of democratic movements in China but is the situation really so politically frozen?

Anyone with direct, recent experience in PRC is welcome to comment.

We have no eternal allies and we have no perpetual enemies.
Our interests are perpetual and eternal...
Lord Palmerston, 1848

by Francois in Paris on Sat Dec 10th, 2005 at 05:40:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unrest in China : 20 Reported Killed (none / 0)

Good comment - but I will disagree with your third variant: contrary to conventional wisdom (or is it more just the neoliberal consensus?), I will expect a force for change not from the middle-class. The middle class is precisely that: the have-somes who will defend the status quo in hopes for some more material gains.

I think if democratisation will be forced on the regime, it will all come from the migrant workers.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Sat Dec 10th, 2005 at 06:13:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unrest in China : 20 Reported Killed (4.00 / 2)

That's why I say

... with a middle class that's no longer content to just work and consume ...

I know that CW is that the middle class is still very content with working and consuming. And if the middle class doesn't budge, we can kiss goodbye to option 3. I can't imagine a democratic movement without strong support in the middle class.

But, I've personally noticed something funny, when I had the opportunity to rub elbows with a few billionaires (yep, real ones, very big names) on a work/social relation when I was working in the US. Nice guys, no reason to resent them a bit, I'm not of an envious nature and yet, you can't help, somewhere in the back of your mind... I'm definitively not one of them and I know it.

The middle class is the most likely to be angry at the ultra-wealthy if things get bumpy for them. They see them, they understand the situation and they know they won't get there. Happiness is relative.

We have no eternal allies and we have no perpetual enemies.
Our interests are perpetual and eternal...
Lord Palmerston, 1848

by Francois in Paris on Sat Dec 10th, 2005 at 06:30:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unrest in China : 20 Reported Killed (none / 1)

That's why I say ... with a middle class that's no longer content to just work and consume ...

What I meant is that the middle class will not become not content. But, with what you added, I too have to qualify: if the Chinese middle class loses the illusion that they too can get super-rich, or feels that it stagnates or even loses what it already has, then they too will join the forces for change. Still, I don't think they would be central to it.

I can't imagine a democratic movement without strong support in the middle class.

Hm, that would be standard neoliberal theory. But in a country where the middle class constitutes only 10-15% of the population, they are neither necessary nor sufficient as a basis for democracy. (Same goes for India.)

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Sat Dec 10th, 2005 at 06:38:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unrest in China : 20 Reported Killed (4.00 / 2)

Agree: in China's context (about which I know little, let's be honest), I would certainly not see the threat of the middle-class in its mass, as it would work in our countries where, right or wrong, at least 60 or 70% of the population considers itself as middle-class.

IMHO, its threat would rather be as a structuring element, a vanguard to use Marxist-Leninist jargon. When I parse through news articles on social unrest in China, I'm always shocked by how pragmatic, down to earth the claims are. The protesters want specific things: rescinding an abusive tax , the shutdown of a polluter, the money they were promised, etc. There is no overall conceptual demand, no political conscience, to go back to good old Marxism. They remain the lumpen-proletariat of Marxism lore, incapable of a revolution. If you throw educated members of the middle-class, that could change towards building actual political movements.

Again, not really knowing what I'm talking about, but I would hypothesize that something important happened to the power structure in China in the past 20 years. The Maoists were afraid of the intellectual class and made sure to bypass it and maintain their powerbase on army and skilled workers while keeping the peasantry at least moderately happy. Now, it looks like they have reverted willy-nilly to a more traditional authoritarian structure - high bourgeoisie -> middle-class -> working class/lumpen - the type most susceptible to revolutions because of the uncertain loyalty of the middle class to the high bourgeoisie.

PS: Same goes for India Except India is a real democracy and has democratic means to resolve conflicts that China doesn't have. For an anecdotal evidence, you should have a look at this NY Times article on highway building in India. It's slow, it's clunky but it works and people buy into it at every level. Why? Because of democracy, they can't bulldoze their way through. They have to negotiate. At a 30 years horizon, I'm betting on India rather than China.

We have no eternal allies and we have no perpetual enemies.
Our interests are perpetual and eternal...
Lord Palmerston, 1848

by Francois in Paris on Sat Dec 10th, 2005 at 07:53:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unrest in China : 20 Reported Killed (4.00 / 3)

I'm not sure that China has ever been centralised in the sense that we seem to expect: the power structure really seems to be a central hierarchy with diminishing control as you move away from the centre. While in theory the chaps in the centre are in charge there is a lot of leeway for local officials who actually move the orders and reports back and forth.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sat Dec 10th, 2005 at 05:38:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unrest in China : 20 Reported Killed (4.00 / 2)

This has been my experience and that's why I suggest there may be some kind of breakup, or rather a subsiding into regions.

The regional governments have quite a level of competition and the coastal regions have a large prosperity gap with the western areas.

The centre has the army, but the regions are working on that. This will be the key issue in the medium term, naturally enough.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Sat Dec 10th, 2005 at 07:12:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unrest in China : 20 Reported Killed (4.00 / 3)

I'm always thrilled to see countries that have been so poor for so long find success, but, unfortunately, I think political freedom may well take decades to come to China.

Part of the problem is that the Western and central provinces can't offer the skills, education, and geographical position of the Southeast. Taxes are also high in areas dominated by agriculture.

A strong democratic movement may or may not require the middle class. My sense is that, in this case, it will not involve that class. What incentive do they have to join such a cause? Voting is great, but these people are worried about paying the rent and continuing the massive improvements in welfare they've gained. The risk of the middle-class pushing the democratic movement is incredibly high.

We in America and Europe have the real power, because our two economies dwarf China's, and China is dependent on trade with us. And we ought to be using that strength to push the human rights agenda. The fact that we have not been pounding on China enough for the Communist Party's brutality towards dissidents and oppression of people in the rural provinces is disgusting to me. The Republicans here in America like to claim that they are all about fighting the evil, oppressive Commies. But they've always been strangely silent when the Commies happened to be from China.

I never followed the reasoning behind the double standard. I have a pretty good idea -- namely, that we engaged China in the '70s when relations between the CPC and the CPSU were, shall we say, less than spectacular -- but it's still no excuse.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Sun Dec 11th, 2005 at 12:22:20 AM EST

Democracy in China (4.00 / 2)

Here's my pet theory.

The one-child policy has produced a whole generation of spoiled children, a majority of them boys. These middle-class kids are used to getting everything they want. When they reach their 30s, they will not take 'no' from the government. They will want a say. They will want freedom of travel, freedom of speech, freedom to access any internet site they choose, etc.

That's when the Party will be forced to let go.

The other problem is more immediate: corruption. The villagers who riot are pissed off because local party officials are enriching themselves at their expense. For the local officials, there is a lot of money in corruption because of the explosive economic growth. I'm guessing there will be a lot more blood on the ground before the Party is able to deal with these problems successfully--if, indeed they ever can.

Pogo: We have met the enemy, and he is us.

by d52boy on Sun Dec 11th, 2005 at 04:08:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Democracy in China (none / 0)

I don't think it's a matter of being spoiled, though you bring up an interesting idea. But picking up on the issues surrounding the One-Child Policy, I do think you're going to make millions upon millions of young men in China who are eventually going to have trouble finding work, and who are, yes, sexually frustrated.

The One-Child Policy has produced a generation of boys, because male children are seen as an insurance policy for Mom and Dad in China.

Here's an idea, though, from an economist's perspective: The One-Child Policy provided an incentive for parents to have male children and avoid female children. But with a massive surplus of males, and no females to wed them to (and you know how we men need wives and girlfriends to discipline our lazy asses -- I'm guilty as charged), might this raise the value of women and help bring the society back into equilibrium?

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Sun Dec 11th, 2005 at 02:55:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Democracy in China (none / 0)

Sure. In two or three generations, which isn't very helpful.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sun Dec 11th, 2005 at 05:25:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Women's liberation (none / 0)

Actually, it's starting to happen already. Divorce rates are up, and I read that some 70% of divorces are initiated by women.

Many young women simply don't see the need to marry. Others who do marry will not tolerate their husbands' infidelities the way older generations did.

Things are changing.

Pogo: We have met the enemy, and he is us.

by d52boy on Sun Dec 11th, 2005 at 09:28:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unrest in China : 20 Reported Killed (4.00 / 2)

As the market economy becomes more and more a part of Chinese society the wish and need for political pluralism will become more evident and education is one of the key factors. People will have to need more education in order to catch up and thus climb the ladder of social mobility reaching for the even larger pot of Gold standing on the shelf above. This pared with the Chinese workers and students abroad coming back with different experiences and possibly different political views will be important in the development of Chinese political pluralism. But as the middle-class in China is still to small this will not happen in a while.

But one paradox this open policy leads to is the withering away of the Communist party's Power base and thus the legitimacy of the Central authority. That is why the emphasise on patriotism has been so important and stronger the last few decades. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) realize that in order to keep the society together one ideology has to be replaced with another and the best way of doing that is to keep the nationalist flame burning, emphasising and focusing on conflicts with outside nations.

China's biggest problems have historically been its internal affairs. Mr. Lee of Singapore once had a chat with Deng Xiao Peng over Chinese policy in the 1980's and learned that the CCP's nationalist project had a 40-50 years perspective, (I have tried to find that interview with Mr. Lee done by der Spiegel in 2004, but haven't found it yet). Still the patriotism seems to flourish and grow stronger as China progresses. For as one Chinese says: One gets online: if one cries patriotism, then one becomes a patriot; if one condemns someone else as being unpatriotic, then one is a patriotic fighter. This is reminds me a great deal about the big character posters that used to be all over the place during the Cultural Revolution. The CCP is on a mission whether it involves democracy no won will know for certain in a while.

Now, here's quit an amusing story of East meeting West through the eye's of a rather bewildered American: http://www.thingsasian.com/goto_article/tell_story.3015.html

Bitsofnews.com Giving you the latest bits.

by Gjermund E Jansen (gjans1@hotmail.com) on Sun Dec 11th, 2005 at 06:33:25 AM EST

Re: Unrest in China : 20 Reported Killed (4.00 / 2)

Here is the der Spiegel article I couldn't find in my previous comment: http://service.spiegel.de/cache/international/spiegel/0,1518,druck-369128,00.html

Bitsofnews.com Giving you the latest bits.

by Gjermund E Jansen (gjans1@hotmail.com) on Sun Dec 11th, 2005 at 09:13:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Unrest in China : 20 Reported Killed | 26 comments (26 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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