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by Coug
It seems the server crashed, deleted my account and also my diary. So here's a repost:
Elections are upcoming in the Palestine, while they're well underway in Lebanon. A few trends are emerging, namely the politisising of Hamas and Hezbollah. This emergence of Hezbollah and Hamas as a political force has a European counterpart, namely the IRA and Sinn Féin. I hope to shed some light on the similarities between these groups, as well as the difficulties they face. In the case of Sinn Féin and the IRA, it's clear that they have fared badly after the peace-treaty was signed. Funding from Scotland, the USA and other sources dwindled up as peace seemed just around the corner, hurting not only the IRA, but also Sinn Féin. Both Hezbollah and Hamas are dependant on foreign funding, will they face the same consequence as Sinn Féin and the IRA? More below the fold...
Hezbollas win has made disarming them more difficult, ISN of Switzerland reports:
... Hizbollah's win also demonstrates that Syria will be able to preserve its influence in Lebanon; Damascus recently withdrew its military forces following the massive protests that erupted over its occupation after the 14 February assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri. Hizbollah has traditionally received much of its financial and military support from Syria and Iran, and Damascus can partially make up for its loss of influence in Lebanon by becoming closer to Hizbollah. ...
Meanwhile, Haim Malka of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies discusses:
... Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas's courtship of Hamas as a political party avoided bloodshed in the near term, but he enhanced the militant organization's legitimacy without diminishing either its arsenal or its armed capabilities. The failure to reach clear agreement either on disarmament or on his own authority may come back to haunt Abbas. ... A similar problem faced the Brits, with the IRA unable, or rather, unwilling to submit to disarmament. They still do, and there are still problems in Northern Ireland. The last in a long line was the assassination of Robert McCartney, but this has also shown what happens when the political party and the paramilitary force act independently. Support for Sinn Féin dropped in the wake of the assassination, because the Northern Irish population has grown tired of violence. Only after Sinn Féin and the IRA apologised and offered to clean up their own ranks, did support for Sinn Féinn increase again. So, how does Hamas and Hezbollah compare? Consider this op-ed piece from Washington Times first:
... "Long-term stability" is the illusive pot of gold. The rainbow is the gorgeous vision of dealing separately with the political and military arms of a terrorist organization -- in the expectation that the political arm will grow, while the military arm will wither. Unfortunately, both arms are connected to the same body, which is governed by the same brain. And it is the brain of a killer. emphasis mine ... The rest of the op-ed is biased, but it touches the important points. The main critera in this whole business though, is that Hamas and Hezbollah would have to RESPECTS the cease-fire agreements they have signed, as Sinn Féin and the IRA have done, to a certain degree. When this is done, the local population won't take easy on increased violence, as Washington Post points out:
... This may not be likely, but neither is it fantasy. In recent years the Egyptian Islamic Group -- a forerunner of al Qaeda -- and the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan have sworn off violence. In Jordan and Morocco, Muslim fundamentalists have been allowed to compete in elections after agreeing in advance to abide by the rule of law. Saad Eddin Ibrahim, the Egyptian pro-democracy activist, helped broker that deal between the late King Hussein of Jordan and the Islamists; he says similar "democracy pacts" could give Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood and Palestinian Hamas full access to the political system in exchange for a full commitment to constitutional rule. Why would the Islamists accept, especially when they are financed and armed by anti-democratic regimes such as Syria and Iran? Because, as events in both Lebanon and Palestine have recently shown, Hamas and Hezbollah are sensitive to popular opinion -- and that opinion, at least at the moment, regards democratic politics as a promising alternative to more years of tyranny and terrorism. ... Both Hamas and Hezbollah have abided by their signed peace-treaties, for the most part. Splinter cells have taken up violence from time to time, but this is also familiar from the Northern Irish experience. What COULD ruin the politicisation of Hamas and Hezbollah would be Israeli and American politics. While the European Union actually wants to try this approach, Israel and the US are vehement opponents of this approach, especially the Israelis. But, all of these developments could be hints towards a more stable Middle-east in the medio-far future. Just keep your fingers crossed, and don't demonise Hezbollah and Hamas... yet... |
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Hezbollah, Hamas and the IRA/Sinn Féin experience | 7 comments (7 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
Hezbollah, Hamas and the IRA/Sinn Féin experience | 7 comments (7 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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