Is China's growth in oil demand sustainable?

by Colman
Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 04:16:28 AM EST

The latest IEA Oil Market Report has sparked some interesting thoughts on Petroleum World, The Oil Drum and Econbrowser. The Petroleum World article says:
The picture that emerges from careful reading of the IEA reports over many months is of a country that is heavily subsidising huge growth in demand for oil to feed the insatiable Chinese economy -- and this has led the IEA to some surprising figures in the August report.
Most importers and refiners of oil and many types of oil products in China are under state control in some way, and domestic product prices are state controlled.
The IEA estimates that at the beginning of July suppliers to the Chinese domestic market were losing 20 dollars per barrel or more on every barrel of gasoil supplied. The average price of a barrel of gasoil on the Singapore market in July was 70 dollars.
The interpretation implied by the IEA data is that, insofar as suppliers are under state control, consumption of oil and of many derivatives -- the essential fuel of the growth of the Chinese economy -- is being subsidised and therefore stimulated at considerable cost by the government itself.

The price controls are leading commercial refiners to stop supplying petrol because at $67 a barrel for crude they're losing up to $20 a barrel. This is leading to petrol shortages and rationing in economically important areas. Allowing the Yuan to appreciate has reduced the price differential and reduced the loss per barrel.

There seems to be massive uncertainty about what's going on in China. What happens if China decides it can't afford to subsidise demand anymore?


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I read recently (in the FT I think) that Indonesia is also facing serious budgetary problems because of subsidised gasoline. Subsidies have been multiplied by 6 to 100 billion ringgit, iirc.

What to do? Bust the budget, or risk riots?

As we all know, it is a basic "human right" to have cheap fuel...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 05:37:57 AM EST
I actually have some sympathy for the leaders in these countries. Ending subsidies is not going to provoke irritable voting by soccer moms whose SUVs are suddenly costing more to run in China and Indonesia. Cheap energy has been the fuel to lift living standards from (in political terms) unsustainably low levels. The riots will come as those on the cusp lose their jobs and sink towards hunger and destitution. Of course, many of those politicians have caused their own problems over the years, but certainly some Indonesians are stuck in holes not of their own design.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 06:21:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm speaking as a complete amateur here, but if oil is going up and thereby forcing both ignorant Americans to think twice about consumption and also forcing China to slow its pace of industrialization, then it's a very good thing. Even if it dampens the economy, as long as it doesn't kill it, it's just what we need. The prospect of China becoming a polluter the likes of the USA is more than this planet can handle.

I speak as someone who has a car, but who lives in the inner-city and has only used his car once during this summer.

by Upstate NY on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 08:29:23 AM EST
China consumes roughly 2.5 million barrels of oil per day, so a $20 subsidy costs $50M/day, or $18.25 Billion/year.  While I'm sure that they have other uses for the money, this is an amount that China's government can afford for a long time to come.
by corncam on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 09:49:50 AM EST
2.5mbd is the import number, isn't it? Consumption is now at 6mbd, with domestic production at 3+mbd. So you need to more than double that subsidy, to 40 or more billion dollars, a not unsignificant figure...(even if they don't pay that 20$ on the domestic production, it is still lost revenue)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 10:19:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, you're right.  
by corncam on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 12:07:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And it rises with price rises and increases in consumption.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 10:51:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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