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by TGeraghty Excellent piece from this morning's diaries ~ whataboutbob
Well, look who's bullish (sub req'd) on the German economy! (via Der Spiegel):
Maybe they've been reading the European Tribune?
Why is the Economist suddenly so enthusiastic about the near-term prospects for the German economy?
(1) Unemployment is beginning to fall:
![]() Disturbingly, the Economist reports, "the profits and activities of leading German companies have become somewhat dislocated from the economic fortunes of Germany as a whole."
[B]usiness leaders are beginning to feel more confident. Last month a much-watched index of business confidence rose by more than analysts had expected, perhaps because of the strong profits performance that was evident when the latest set of quarterly results were announced. Two-thirds of Germany's top 30 listed companies produced improved results for the second quarter of the year. That includes jumps of more than 20% over the same period last year by chemicals firms Altana, BASF and Bayer and respectable earnings from energy producers, insurance companies and banks. (3) The improved position of the banks:
All the biggest banks now have their costs and their balance sheets under control. Much of the banks' real-estate portfolios and their non-performing loans secured against property have been sold off at distressed prices. The challenge now is for the banks to take more risk in their lending to medium-size companies. Good performance from them will be needed to underpin a sustained recovery. (4) Increased attention to long-term investments in education and innovation:
A perceived "innovation gap", which is closely linked to failings in education and research, has attracted much more attention in recent years. . . . In 2004 Chancellor Gerhard Schröder formally launched an initiative with leading companies, dubbed "partners for innovation". Various working groups have been set up, including ones for stimulating new approaches to information technology, specialist materials, education, energy conservation, computerising health services and harnessing venture capital and state aid. Some of these groups have begun long-term projects that will survive any change of government that results from next month's election. And there is money available to publicise the long-term importance of innovation for the economy. Nevertheless, problems remain that threaten to short-circuit any potential recovery. Foremost is the problem of inadequate domestic demand.
In recent years low consumer confidence has held back domestic demand--Germans have been saving more and holding off spending. That has become the single biggest drag on growth. . . . Unless consumer confidence rises, some analysts argue, there remains a risk that Germany might fall back into a deflationary spiral. Why are German consumers nervous, despite the improving labor market? Some ideas:
A second problem is reunification -- what to do about the eastern states, where unemployment rates approach 20% or more. Finally, there is the demographic problem: only 700,000 births in 2004, compared to 1,300,000 in 1960, puts pressure on pension systems and the welfare state as the German population ages. |
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Germany's Surprising Economy | 36 comments (36 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
Germany's Surprising Economy | 36 comments (36 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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