European Tribune - Community, Politics & Progress.

German elections Thread

by Jerome a Paris
Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 09:57:15 AM EST

I did not want to choose between the several good diaries about the German elections to promote one on the front page, so I am creating this one. Let's use this one for the rest of the day (unless we are so active that we need a new one!). I'll ask those of you that have posted interesting links in other diaries to post them again in this one. Ifthere are some that you especially recommend, flag them so that we can put them above the fold.

Here are links provided by Saturday:

The Returning Federal Officer: Official results from the election districts as they come in.

Tageschau: Here, public TV channel ARD provides an internet live stream of its election coverage.

ARD

Phoenix

n-tv

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German elections Thread | 236 comments (236 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

One and a half hours to go.

Around four o'clock, exit poll numbers are being provided for the party organisations. From that point on, news spreads quickly among politicians and media. But no one is allowed to air any information before 18.00.

But, still, a n-24 news channel commentator announced that "at six o'clock, there will be a big surprise." What ever that means.

by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 10:31:59 AM EST

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

I guess speculating is pointless but i'll do it anyway. Would it really be a "big surprise" if Merkel wins? I don't think. Unless she wins a majority

Join The Community - the voices must be heard Voices In The Wilderness

by The Voice on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 11:02:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

Here are the links I also posted in my diary:

The Federal Returning Officer: Official results from the election districts as they come in.
election.de: Really nice electoral maps (Java). I do not know how often they will be updated; just try!
Tagesschau: Here, public TV channel ARD provides an internet live stream of its election coverage.

The following links provide the most recent projections, as they are made public by the TV channels.

ARD
Phoenix (flash).
n-tv.

by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 10:34:10 AM EST

Re: German elections Thread (none / 1)

ok guys. I just received two calls from people who know the exit polls that were conducted until about one hour ago. But I promised to remain quiet until about 18.00 (under any circumstances, I want to prevent them from getting trouble out of this, for publishing exit polls before 18.00 is not allowed).

All I can say: There will be a surprise.

by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 11:03:55 AM EST

Re: German elections Thread (none / 1)

You are naughty!!!!!

by PeWi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 11:10:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

or not naughty enough as it stands, why don;t you tell me, and I tell them, who know who I am ....

by PeWi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 11:11:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

send me your email.

geckes(at)gmx.net

by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 11:13:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

unterwegs

by PeWi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 11:22:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

and hmm

Sagen wir es mal so, die ersten Exit-Polls kurz nach 16:00 Uhr brachten ein für Frau Koch-Mehrin durchaus überraschendes Ergebnis. Zwischenzeitlich haben sich die Werte aber wieder - nun - normalisiert. Mmh, war das verschlüsselt genug? Ich hoffe es mal ...

quoted via lautgeben

by PeWi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 11:43:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

PeWi das ist pervers. :-)

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 11:47:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

I mean the naughty secrecy and not telling. :-) This election is really a nailbiting thing and it looks like it is still not over - I mean the nailbiting.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:19:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

read the whole thing tho (none / 0)

A poster on the same thread you're quoting from says Koch-Mehrin's post is actually from last night, apparently she was just running scenarios.

Damn George Bush! Damn everyone that won't damn George Bush! Damn every one that won't put lights in his window and sit up all night damning George Bush!

by brainwave on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 11:48:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: read the whole thing tho (none / 1)

thanks, I don;t read her blogs, am just running around headless and reading other blogs thats all....

by PeWi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 11:50:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

Torture is uncalled for

Join The Community - the voices must be heard Voices In The Wilderness

by The Voice on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 11:15:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I can't stand it! (none / 0)

How about a hint - is the surprise good or bad for, well, Schroeder or Merkel (take one)? Ah, well, 18 minutes now...

Damn George Bush! Damn everyone that won't damn George Bush! Damn every one that won't put lights in his window and sit up all night damning George Bush!

by brainwave on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 11:43:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

Ok, apparently I have missed that the FDP has been a murky lot during the last twenty years or so. What then could be the surprise? Red/Green/MoreRed ?

by mimi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 01:29:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

My personal bet... (4.00 / 2)

A weaker-than-expected CDU finish creating a Grand Coalition government. But then again, what do I know?

by Rick in TX on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 11:09:41 AM EST

Hey... (none / 0)

you know about as much as the rest of us...except for Saturday.

I need a good surprise...

by gradinski chai on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 11:41:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Let the record show that... (none / 0)

I predicted the German election! Weaker-than-expected CDU-led coalition government.

by Rick in TX on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:17:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What would be really cool (4.00 / 3)

would be FDP at 4.8%.

But we'll know in 20 minutes.

"Ideas or the lack of them can cause disease." - Kurt Vonnegut

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 11:41:32 AM EST

Jeepers - the FDP! (none / 0)

I've been hoping for twenty years for that lot to go under. But, as they say, lots of nasty stuff floats...

Damn George Bush! Damn everyone that won't damn George Bush! Damn every one that won't put lights in his window and sit up all night damning George Bush!

by brainwave on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 11:45:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Jeepers - the FDP! (none / 1)

Yeah, I know, but we can still dream.

"Ideas or the lack of them can cause disease." - Kurt Vonnegut

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 11:52:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What would be really cool (none / 0)

has already over 10.5 percent.

by mimi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:30:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I know (none / 0)

But the dream lives on..

"Ideas or the lack of them can cause disease." - Kurt Vonnegut

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:47:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (4.00 / 2)

5 minutes until polling stations close.

Exit polls from around 16.00 MEST:

SPD 32-44

CDU 36-38

FDP 11

Green 6,5-8

Left 6,5-8,5

(2 independent sources quoting from the exit poll numbers which all parties have been provided with)

This looks good for a CDU/FDP coalition. Big surprise: FDP receiving more than 10% !!!

Shame on you, pollsters!!!

But after 16.00, new numbers are rumored to have a tendency against CDU/FDP. (But beware: This info could also be some sort of last-minute-spin)

by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 11:55:14 AM EST

Hmmmm.... (none / 0)

That would suggest a massive Zweitstimmenkampagne of CDU voters on behalf of the FDP. Weird - why would they? Normally that sort of thing happens when the FDP is rumored to be in trouble ahead of elections. That wasn't the case here, was it?

Damn George Bush! Damn everyone that won't damn George Bush! Damn every one that won't put lights in his window and sit up all night damning George Bush!

by brainwave on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 11:58:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hmmmm.... (none / 0)

CDU-voter who wanted to prevent a grand coalition

by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:00:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You've got to be kidding me... (none / 0)

SPD between 32-44? That's a pretty bad spread for an exit poll. FDP 11% is shocking, and the rough tie between the Greens and the Left is rather surprising to me too.

by Rick in TX on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 11:59:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

That's gotta be a typo tho (none / 0)

must be 32 to 34... (sigh... ;-))

Damn George Bush! Damn everyone that won't damn George Bush! Damn every one that won't put lights in his window and sit up all night damning George Bush!

by brainwave on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:01:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You've got to be kidding me... (none / 0)

argh! sorry! 32-34.

by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:01:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

BBc is just saying CDU/FDP leading by 2%

by PeWi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:01:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 1)

...by the way:

Greetings from jandsm!

by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 11:55:50 AM EST

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

thanks, say hello back!

by PeWi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:03:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 1)

Infratest-Dimap, 18.00:

SPD 34
CDU 35,5
Gre 8,5
FDP 10,5
Left 7,5

by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:02:43 PM EST

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

voter turnout according to infratest:

about 79 %

by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:04:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Merkel's meltdown (none / 0)

Who would have believed that even 4 weeks ago?

"Ideas or the lack of them can cause disease." - Kurt Vonnegut

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:07:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Who? Me! (none / 0)

But I would have thought that Schroeder might benefit a little more from her meltdown...

Damn George Bush! Damn everyone that won't damn George Bush! Damn every one that won't put lights in his window and sit up all night damning George Bush!

by brainwave on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:16:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

Forsa, 18.00:

SPD 33,6
CDU 35,9
Gre 8,4
FDP 10,6
Lef 8,6

by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:12:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Bizarre (none / 0)

First projection, by ARD:

SPD 34%
CDU 35.5% (OMG!)
Greens 8.5% (yay!)
FDP 10.5% (yikes!)
Linke 7.5%

That is one bizarro result! This means basically anything is still possible...

Damn George Bush! Damn everyone that won't damn George Bush! Damn every one that won't put lights in his window and sit up all night damning George Bush!

by brainwave on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:05:54 PM EST

Re: Bizarre (none / 0)

FDP 10.5% (yikes!)

where are they coming from????

by PeWi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:07:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bizarre (none / 0)

the most successful second-vote-campaign ever.

by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:09:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

nah (none / 0)

I remember that kind of thing happening back in the 70s (unless I'm having another senior moment here).

Damn George Bush! Damn everyone that won't damn George Bush! Damn every one that won't put lights in his window and sit up all night damning George Bush!

by brainwave on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:13:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: nah (none / 0)

1980?

by Detlef (Detlef1961_at_yahoo_dot_de) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 01:02:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bizarre (none / 0)

where are they coming from????

Maybe the Stefan Raab election special yesterday evening?

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:19:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bizarre (none / 0)

Why yickes ???? Don't get it.

by mimi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:41:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Elaborating (none / 0)

CDU + FDP 46% - 2% (plus 1 vote - see below) short of what they need
SPD + Greens 42.5% - even less likely
SPD + Greens + Linke 50% - this is what CDU + FDP have to overcome (take two percentage points from them and add one vote)

If CDU and FDP can claw themselves up another 2%, they have a majority. If they don't, it'll most likely be a "big coalition" (CDU + SPD) or a revote. The truly amazing thing is, though, that the CDU is doing so bad in this projection that they might not even finish first - in which case we might even get an SPD-led big coalition, possibly even under Schroder. But, that's not likely to hold up...

Damn George Bush! Damn everyone that won't damn George Bush! Damn every one that won't put lights in his window and sit up all night damning George Bush!

by brainwave on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:12:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Elaborating (none / 0)

Well with this result the SPD is the biggest fraction in the Bundestag afterall CDU and CSU is a coalition.
so big coalition with Schroeder as Kanzler???

by PeWi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:16:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Elaborating (none / 0)

no. CDU/CSU is not a coaltion. It is a common faction.

by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:20:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Elaborating (none / 0)

f CDU and FDP can claw themselves up another 2%, they have a majority.

For long the rule of the thumb was that city people typically vote later, but vote more to the Left. This meant SPD/Greens beating the exit polls in 2002 too, I hope this time it will mean even less for CDU/CSU+FDP than in the exit polls.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:31:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bizarre (none / 0)

ZDF projection:

SPD 33%
CDU/CSU 37%
FDP 10.5%
Greens 8%
Left Party 8%

RTL exit poll:

SPD 33.5%
CDU/CSU 36%
FDP 10.5%
Greens 8.5%
Left Party 8.5%

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:16:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bizarre (none / 0)

Presently CDU is down to 35.2 on ARD.

FDP down to 10.2

Greens down to 8.2

SPD unchanged

The only one going up is the Linke up to 8.4

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 01:27:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The link from ARD provided says... (none / 0)

SPD 34
CDU 35.5
Green 8.5
FDP 10.5
Left 7.5
Other 4

It has seats at

212 SPD
221 CDU
53 Green
65 FDP
47 Left

I don't know the number of seats in the Bundestag. Would the CDU/FDP be able to form a government with that?

by Rick in TX on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:06:39 PM EST

Re: The link from ARD provided says... (none / 0)

nope. It's a stalemate.

We'll have to wait for results coming in.

by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:08:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The link from ARD provided says... (none / 0)

I think you need 290 or 300 seats - which neither the CDU/FDP coalition nor the SPD/Greens accomplish.

by Xanthippe on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:24:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The link from ARD provided says... (none / 0)

598 seats + possible "overhang" mandates.
So you´d need at least 300 seats.

by Detlef (Detlef1961_at_yahoo_dot_de) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:25:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (4.00 / 2)

CDU MEMBERS ON TV: SHOCKED.

SPD: SATISFIED.

FDP. SINGING AND DANCING.

GREENS: no reaction I know of.

LEFT: MIXED FEELINGS.

by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:07:11 PM EST

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

Walter, writing in Berlin's Die Tageszeitung newspaper, predicted an SPD-Greens-FDP government as
the most likely result on Sunday.
:::
(Schroeder) can only survive and indeed triumph alone through this Red-Green-Yellow constellation

This seems possible now or am I missing something? (I am no expert on the German electoral process)

source

Join The Community - the voices must be heard Voices In The Wilderness

by The Voice on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:14:16 PM EST

this has always been possible (none / 0)

A majority for a red-yellow-green ("traffic lights") coalition has always been virtually assured. And with equal certainty, such an alliance isn't going to happen. Greens and FDP are incompatible - neither party stands anything to gain and both have a lot to loose if they were to sign off on such a deal.

Damn George Bush! Damn everyone that won't damn George Bush! Damn every one that won't put lights in his window and sit up all night damning George Bush!

by brainwave on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:20:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: this has always been possible (none / 0)

so, hwo refuses to work with whom? The greens deny cooperation with the FDP or the FDP denies cooperation with the greens? They are idiots both, if they can't compromise to work together with each other and both with the SPD, IMO.

by mimi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:47:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

All I know is (none / 0)

a lot of eating of words has got to happen before any coalition can get off the ground.

"Ideas or the lack of them can cause disease." - Kurt Vonnegut

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:51:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: this has always been possible (none / 0)

They are idiots both, if they can't compromise to work together with each other and both with the SPD, IMO.

Heh, based on what common ground do you imagine them to go into a coalition? I can't see any. (Civil rights could have been one, but FDP is rather silent about those lately...)

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:55:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: this has always been possible (none / 0)

I didn't watch the FDP. My feeling about the FDP is that of thei mid seventies. Apparently they had a lot of crappy guys messing with the party during the last 15 years or so.

Well, what a weird situation.

by mimi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 01:20:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Both are refusing (none / 0)

And for a good reason. What you have to keep in mind is, the small parties (Greens and FDP) have to constantly fight for survival, since there is a 5% threshold on federal and most statewide elections - fall short of that threshold even by one vote, and you ain't gonna be represented in parliament at all. And FDP and Greens are direct competitors. So entering a coalition together is a highly dangerous move for both of them. It's almost a death match - if one of them were to benefit from such an alliance, the other would likely go under.

Damn George Bush! Damn everyone that won't damn George Bush! Damn every one that won't put lights in his window and sit up all night damning George Bush!

by brainwave on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:55:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Both are refusing (none / 0)

Sorry for asking, but how in their right mind could think that the Greens and the Free Democrats have something that would justify any of them to opposing competitors. That's a case of delusional grandstanding that neither party can show reasons for.

by mimi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 01:23:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: this has always been possible (none / 0)

well, politics is as much about ego's as it is about guiding the state it wants to govern to a better future....

by PeWi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:57:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Trend (none / 0)

It looks like, judging by the other exit polls and the infratest extrapolation that just got adjusted, that the CDU will gain a little as the night goes on. But not enough to pull off a CDU/FDP coalition, so it won't matter. Or that's what it looks like.

But hey, I remember the previous elections, so saying anything before the night is over is probably a bad idea :-)

by Frank (wijsneus-aht-gmail-doht-com) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:23:39 PM EST

Re: Trend (none / 0)

No, the CDU moves up probably because 1) conservatives typically vote earlier and 2) rural people are more conservative, and counting goes facter in small villages. The count moved the same way in 2002: first CDU up above the exit poll numbers, a few hours later slowly back, and in the end Red/Green outdid the exit poll numbers.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:34:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yup (none / 0)

That's my expectation as well. The SPD might still come up tops...

Damn George Bush! Damn everyone that won't damn George Bush! Damn every one that won't put lights in his window and sit up all night damning George Bush!

by brainwave on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:45:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yup (none / 0)

I'd never expected that that's a possibility... now I probably won't be able to sleep and will stay up the night for the final result like last time :-)

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:50:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well there you go, then (none / 0)

That's one advantage of living in Upstate NY - bright daylight over here (and a beautiful day to boot!). My fear is that I'm not gonna get much work done today (yeah I know it's Sunday but I gotta prepare classes for tomorrow).

Damn George Bush! Damn everyone that won't damn George Bush! Damn every one that won't put lights in his window and sit up all night damning George Bush!

by brainwave on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:57:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

nonetheless, "traffic lights" is being discussed intensely on ARD.

by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:26:03 PM EST

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

SPD-chairman Franz Müntefering:

"Schröder will remain chancellor!"

Meaning: SPD will try to arrange for a traffic lights coalition.

That is also what my source from within the SPD (he is currently at a party with science and education minister Edelgard Bulmahn) tells me.

by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:34:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

Müntefering:

"There will be no cooperation with the Left Party."

by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:35:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

They should ask Wowereit about how likely that project would be to succeed...

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:36:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

Traffic Lights? Which one is that?

by mimi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:39:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

SPD (red), FDP (yellow) and Greens.

by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:41:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

Thanks, figured it by now. I hope they build this coalition.

by mimi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:49:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

yikes!

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:52:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

SPD = red
FDP = yellow
Green = you get the idea :-)

Damn George Bush! Damn everyone that won't damn George Bush! Damn every one that won't put lights in his window and sit up all night damning George Bush!

by brainwave on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:42:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

Say some more about FDP...why would they interested in a left coalition?

Half the population is under the age of 18. Tanzania's future is NOW...join the 50% campaign!

by whataboutbob on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:43:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That's just it (none / 0)

They wouldn't. They have a lot more to loose than to gain from such a deal. I think the reason Muentefering (the SPD Chairman) is floating this option right now is to prop up the mood of the faithful until we see more tangible results.

Damn George Bush! Damn everyone that won't damn George Bush! Damn every one that won't put lights in his window and sit up all night damning George Bush!

by brainwave on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:47:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's just it (none / 0)

Yes, agreed, it is not a very likely proposition, but then...

by PeWi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:50:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 1)

Well, they USED to be in coalition with the SPD on Federal level, before they changed over to the CDU in 1982 (Genscher and Lambsdorf fabrication)

but there were some social liberals (Darendorf), not just the national, economic liberals leading the party now.

They had at one time, some decent politicians, Leutheuser-Schnarrenberg f.e,

but most left, are silenced, or changed to the SPD, Verheugen f.e European Vice President used to be a FDP or F.D.P. member

by PeWi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:49:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

yeah, yeah, just didn't know FDP are yellow...:-)

I associate yellow meanwhile with yellow elephants and needed to ajust my wiring.

by mimi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:50:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

yello, green, red

aeh

red, yello , green

SPD, Liberals - FDP, Greens

by PeWi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:44:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not buying here (none / 0)

Why would the FDP do that? Why support a highly instable government that's assured to have the wheels coming off at the first turn, knowing they're only going to get punished for it afterwards? The FDP would enter a traffic lights coalition only if their survival were at stake. Sadly, there's no evidence that it is (obviously I'm not exactly a fan of that lot)...

Damn George Bush! Damn everyone that won't damn George Bush! Damn every one that won't put lights in his window and sit up all night damning George Bush!

by brainwave on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:40:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not buying here (none / 0)

Well, who thinks the FDP they are. As far as I am concerned they are nothing and they have only a life in a coalition with another party. They are dead if the go into coalition with the CDU. It's so tremendously boring. If the FDP goes into coalition with CDU, they can just become CDU themselves. Gosh, it's awful, I am not interested in German policies anymore other than that I don't trust the CDU/CSU to be honest brokers for the people's good. Merkel is another case. I think she isn't that conservative in her heart, she might just be a lose canon in foreign policies and may be also too unexperienced.

by mimi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:57:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

Any chance FDP will accept coalition with SPD and the Greens?

by mimi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:37:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 1)

About zero.

FDP is a neoliberal party, in permanent assault of any environmental issue that would limit business.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:47:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

Why the fuck is that?

by mimi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:58:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

Well, uh, because that's the nature of the party. What fucking part seems incomprehensible to you?

On second thought, because you're an American, maybe you are misled by the US meaning of the nomer 'liberal'. But, it was only in the USA that 'liberal' became associated with Big Government and social programs like the New Deal. Elsewhere, liberalism remained to be focused on freedoms (especially where those weren't yet achieved).

In the seventies, US economist Milton Friedman et al, the so-called 'Chicago school' who 'helped' Pinochet, created the theory that 1) the smaller the state and the more private the economy the better ('markets regulate themselves'), and 2) economic 'freedom' should be there first, it will create political freedoms second. This is called 'neoliberalism' world-wide, but in the US, used less often.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 01:07:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

So, you really equate the FDP to the libertarians? (Neoliberalism - is that comparable to right-wing libertarianism or more to left-wing libertarianism?)

I am actually German, but have lost track with German politics big time since 1980. I apparently have no clue what the FDP is all about these days. I am lost.
Also, from across the Atlantic, I couldn't get the divide between East and West Germans. I had to watch reunification on the TV set and have these days to host interns in their twenties from both parts of Germany, which made it clear to me that I have lost the capability to understand what's going on in Germany. I even don't vote anymore in Germany because of that.

by mimi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 02:14:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

Mimi,

I am a German too and the FDP is definitely NOT libertarian in the American sense.
(Hmm, you could probably compare them to center to right-wing Democrats in the USA?)

Pro-market yes, but if they ran on a "libertarian" platform they´d be lucky to even get 5% of the vote.

by Detlef (Detlef1961_at_yahoo_dot_de) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 02:52:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

But I am getting so confused with the libertarians in the US. They seem to be center-left liberals, but then they are also outrageous right-wing extremist libertarians. I have no clue why both groups run under the umbrella of the libertarian category. I hate politics, nothing but an obfuscating fuzzy mess. Or let's say I am too dumb and too lazy to really try to understand their minds. :-)

by mimi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 05:20:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Confused about the Libertarians (none / 0)

But I am getting so confused with the libertarians in the US.

1. The reason you are confused is because most people, and alsmost everyone in the media, gives inaccurate and incomplete labels and/or descriptions to the political/economic theories or parties.

Its absolutely inaccurate, very confusing and even foolish, to divide the political spectrum into left and right.

There are no libertarians on this site. I believe I am the only libertarian voice. Maybe there are others, who just don't post, in part because they are afraid of being ridiculed, since some here would rather dismiss you, instead of debate the facts and theories.
Here is the link to the The US National Libertarian Party - http://www.lp.org/issues/issues.shtml, where you can learn and educate yourself about the libertarians party issues.
Here is a Libertarian Purity Test - http://www.bcaplan.com/cgi/purity.cgi

Be reminded that the libertarians are not uniform and they come in different forms - haha. However, in general they believe in more economic and personal freedoms for an individual, and less economic and personal power to the all-knowing, all-understanding, all-generous, all-providing, all-caring state.

The ultimate question is the individual freedom vs. state control.

5. This site has the world's smallest political quiz - http://www.theadvocates.org/index.html

Look at the upper right portion.

(a) In essence there are 5 positions:

Libertarian;
Liberal;
Conservative;
Centrist;
Authoritarian.

(b) now you can see that dividing people into right and left is incomplete, inaccurate and misleading.

by ilg37c on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 11:00:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Confused about the Libertarians (none / 0)

sorry, but does sound exactly like the FDP version of liberal. (maybe apart from Gun control issues) but then there is a different culture they are liberal to.

by PeWi on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 03:49:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Confused about the Libertarians (none / 0)

I don't see the FDP calling for the

(1) the abolition of the income tax. On the contrary, 2 American parties have it in their platform.

(a) the Libertarian Party
(b) the Constitution Party.

(b) the free trade.

(2) taking the state out of the education.

In sum, there are few libertarians, but no libertarian party. Of course, in France, there is
Sabine Herold who is a libertarian and got 80,000 people to protest against the unions.

by ilg37c on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 10:18:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Confused about the Libertarians (none / 0)

well, I have read a bit about the Libertarian's way of dividing not into groups from left to right, but from top to bottom on the scale of how much "authoritarianism" each group got in his guts.

I have to admit that I don't like it. You can have restrictive (ie authoritarian) rules concerning taxes for example to ensure a fairer distribution of wealth among the population, which would end up in the best case szenario as giving more people more freedoms.

You have to defend freedom of press and freedom of opinion against authoritarian hate speech to ensure that everybody feels comfortable to voice their opinion and not be bullied into silence. These would be authoritarian measures to protect freedoms.

So, I have my doubts about the top to bottom kind of scale. A fundamentalist libertarian can allow freedoms to be destroyed for the sake of staying truely libertarian and that doesn't make sense to me.

by mimi on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 07:54:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Confused about the Libertarians (none / 0)

The most important point is that dividing the political spectrum into 5 groups (the square spectrum) gives a more accurate depiction and provides less confusion that dividing people between the left and the right.
I have to admit that I don't like it.

You don't have to like it. If everyone thought the same way, there won't be any disagreement or elections would there? :-)

3. You have to defend freedom of press and freedom of opinion against authoritarian hate speech to ensure that everybody feels comfortable to voice their opinion and not be bullied into silence.

(a) THere is an American Nazi party. Big deal. They can print hate speech. They can march and protest. Big deal. They are miniscule. Plus, once you have their opinions aired, you can debate them, show them how irrational or dangerous they are.

(b) same goes for the KKK.

4. Give me an example where your version of protecting against the hate speech provides more freedoms.

Cheers

There is no evidence taht the Libertarians do not want freedom of press or opinion. The question is
(a) which method provides the most individual freedom;
(b) which method is more productive.

by ilg37c on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 10:12:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

FDP (none / 0)

1. I don't know much about the FDP's internal politics, and the personalities that drive the party. Its probably the only party that comes close to the Libertarian Party.

However, there is no principled libertarian party in Germany.

(a) It appears to me that the most likely scenario is the SDP & CDU grand coalition. It means there will never be a radical economic reform in Germany. The concept of aboliting the income tax (the most hideous tax) is absolutely foreign to them. The next close thing was the flat tax, but that is nowhere to be seen either. So, they are left with (i) a complicated tax system, which probably is 14,593 pages (I am being sarcastic), which only tax lawyers and accountant can understand. So the little people are screwed, because they can't afford to hire tax lawyers and CPAs to find loopholes in the tax code, (ii) state spending a large portion of the GDP with promises to the future generation that the state will pay for the health care and pension (of course the state has to steal ...ooops tax the money from individuals to pay for the services), (iii) labor market which is not free, but regulated and encourages higher unemployment, (iv) taxes on capital formation, which discourages creation of jobs and business.

Its the same old, same old.

Q: Why would the FDP want to be associated with a failure?

(b) the second likely scenario is SDP/LP/Green coalition. See above, except with a much terrible outcome.

2. Maybe the FDP should sit and watch how Germany is slowly crumbling (low competitiveness, high unemployment, lower state benefits, lower economic growth, higher trade barriers, protectionism, more power to the trade unions, more strikes, etc).

Then, hopefully, either the CDU will adopt free-market, libertarian positions, or maybe (not likely) the voters will vote for the FDP and accept some austere measures for the sake of the future generation.

3. Full disclosure - the FDP has not paid me for this consultation (haha). They can hire Nobel Prize economists from the University of Chicago, or the CATO Institute.

by ilg37c on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 11:20:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: FDP (none / 0)

after this could please also explain the difference between Manchester Capitalism and Rheinland Capitalism?

(Sorry, it is a slightly snarky request, and I smirkingly accept, that you might be the only L voter in these rows)

by PeWi on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 03:52:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: FDP (none / 0)

I am not an expert either in the "Manchester School of Economics" or in "Rheinland Capitalism."
(a) The Manchester School originated in the 19th Century, because of the desire for free trade. I do not believe they had a platform for monetary or tax or fiscal policies; I might be wrong about the latter part, and if so, someone will point it out. As

(b) I was asked to post a diary about a free trade, and I should spend time to organize it, which I haven't done. Jerome also thinks a debate about free trade will be good. There are always two sides of a coin (not equally right), and free trade has its good and its bad. The question is whether free trade overall is good or bad for more people most of the time. In other words, if the free trade benefits 80 people and hurts 20, on balance its good.

(c) Sometime, in the past, I posted links that gave three different perspectives in favor of free trade
(i) liberal (minority view, even though Bill Clinton signed and Dems voted for NAFTA), (ii) conservative (majority view, even though Pat Buchanan and others oppose it), (iii) libertarian (overwhelming view).

You can check back at my comments and find out, if you are interested.

(d) My short answer for free trade is simple: Let Africa and Latin America and Asia (large part) live in the industrial and agricultural age, and let's move to the information age (space, biotech, nanotech, genetic engineering, health care, internet, etc). Most people in these industries will make a lot more money than if they worked in metallurgy or meat factories.

It also means that education (and creative thinking) will become more important because we live in the information age.

by ilg37c on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 11:11:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: FDP (none / 0)

Rheinland kapitalism means that a company shows resonsibility for the wellfare of its workforce from the cradle to the grave and not just qhile they worked at a plant, Things such as:

Building and providing houses, pension, 13th Salary at Christmas, cheap holidays, sports facilities, medical facilities.

A tradition that used to be very strong in Germany - introduced not by the state, but by the industrialists themselves.

by PeWi on Tue Sep 20th, 2005 at 12:32:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: FDP (none / 0)

well, unless you just want to tease me, I am very interested to find a strong economic theorist, who brings the University Schoold of Economics opinions to its knees. I think outside the US the concept of libertarianism in economic theory is misunderstood as being liberal-leftist and a beacon of freedom and fairness. I am so laywomanish and uneducated when it comes to that specific school, but I don't trust them for a minute.

They could go on too long to confuse people. To me they are wolves in sheep clothes (or whatever you call it). And if the FDP falls for those theories I just think that they don't know what they are dealing with.

by mimi on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 08:04:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Economic Schools and Economic Theories (none / 0)

Instead of studying in the university for economic theories, here are 2 short cuts (but you don't get a degree - haha):

1. Read this book by Milton Friedman -
FREE TO CHOOSE Its a fast read.

Ask yourself a simple question: Who can solve this economic problem better - an individual (or a group of individuals associated on the basis of freedom) or a state (through its political machinations and bureaucracy)?
"Hell hath no fury like a bureaucrat scorned." :-)

Right on. Next time, use this observation, when a bureaucrat impedes any freedom or progress. It works every time its tried.

by ilg37c on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 10:34:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Economic Schools and Economic Theories (none / 1)

And don't forget the really important question: will this allow me to justify acting in my own self interest without regard for any one else's interests while pretending that its for their own good?

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 11:11:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Economic Schools and Economic Theories (none / 0)

1. When a baker bakes bread, he does not think about you or me. He doesn't even know about you or me.

(a) He acts for his self interest - bake bread, make money, to support himself and his family. Its called the invisible hand.
(b) I take the baker any time over any government bureaucrat.

2. When Bill Gates (or Microsoft) programs a software, he/she doesn't know you or me and doesn't do for our good.
(a) He did it to have fame, or money, or success, or all of the above. Or maybe, he was a geek, and couldn't get a date, and now he can. The end result was a product or service.

(b) I take Bill Gates any time over any government bureaucrat. Or if you are an Apple fan, I go with Steve Jobs.

The communists had "lofty and noble" goals. See what it brought too. Ask Mao, ask Castro, ask Lenin, ask Stalin, ask Pol Pot, ask, ask, ask.
I let Schroeder and his government programs solve the Germany's social and economic problems. That of course assumes that the government knows better than the individual. He believes in it and I salute him. I want more power and more control under Herr Schroeder. (smile)

by ilg37c on Mon Sep 19th, 2005 at 10:53:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

grr ARD livestream just collapsed...

by PeWi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:33:58 PM EST

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

Help. I am so far away from being really interested in German elections, so my stupid question now:

Has there been already made a committment made by the FDP to go into a coalition with the CDU?

Or could the SPD, the FDP and the Green Party go altogether into a Coalition?

Geesh, strange result. Certainly not a good result for the CDU.

How do you interpret that the FDP had such an increase in votes? Isn't that just to show that there are a lot of people, who are unsatisfied with either SPD or CDU and for lack of an alternative they voted FDP, because there wasn't anything else for them to show their discontent?

Unfortunately I can't view or hear video or audio clips right now.

by mimi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:35:18 PM EST

Yes they have (none / 0)

But then, all sorts of folks have made commitments that mean jackshit in the face of these results...

Damn George Bush! Damn everyone that won't damn George Bush! Damn every one that won't put lights in his window and sit up all night damning George Bush!

by brainwave on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:43:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

Possible effects:

A) Germany has a (predominantly) proportional system, but parties get in on list votes only if they pass 5%. Seing its poll numbers sink, FDP campaigned for CDU voters to give their list vote to the FDP - maybe with overwhelming success.

B) Last night, popular German talk-show host Stefan Raab did his own election show. I don't have a very high opinion of him, yet he is very popuzlar among a certain section of the youth. Meanwhile, in recent years, the FDP has tried to attract just this clientele. Yesterday, in the show, they held a mock telephone voting of viewers, and the FDP of course did rather well. Maybe this had a lasting effect on some young people who would have voted for CDU.

C) IMO most likely: on the TV channel ARD, polls showed a dramatic swing in preferred coalitions: the popularity of a CDU/SPD Grand Coalition slumped, that of a CDU/FDP one rose. Maybe a lot of CDU voters wanted to prevent a Grand Coalition.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:43:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

I can't imagine that Schroeder would have ever accepted a CDU/SPD coalition. Had he given any such indications that he would? That would be really strange.

by mimi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 01:00:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

But this is not about what Schröder likes. If a Grand Coalition is the only possibility, the SPD (led by its ministers) will dump Schröder and join a Merkel-led government.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 01:11:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

oh ... SPD/CDU coalition under Merkel's leadership?
hmm ... why is it that I don't think that's too bad?
For some reason I don't believe Merkel to be a conservative by ideology, so it may actually work, because the extreme conservative opportunists at the CDU might be "controlled and checked" efficiently enough then by the SPD, or not?

by mimi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 02:19:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

Has there been already made a commitment made by the FDP to go into a coalition with the CDU?

Nothing written of course. :)
But there was always the public assumption that this would be the "natural" coalition.

Or could the SPD, the FDP and the Green Party go altogether into a Coalition?

In principle yes. It happened in states already.
But on the federal level there are "tensions" - to say it politely - between the Greens and the FDP.

I think nobody right now can really interpret the results. Certainly not the pollsters. :)
But personally I don´t think it were dissatisfied voters. Looks more like people were assuming that the CDU was safely above 40% and giving their "second vote" to the FDP to bolster them. Kind of tactical voting.

I really, really don´t like this result!
It´s either a big coalition or some sort of three party coalition.

by Detlef (Detlef1961_at_yahoo_dot_de) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 12:54:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

If the FDP thinks their "natural" coalition partner is the CDU and their "natural" unacceptable coalition partner are the greens then the FDP has no idea what the meaning of a liberal (=free) democratic party means.

Arggh such pinshitters.

by mimi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 01:03:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

there is to much history

http://www2.eurotrib.com/story/2005/9/18/95715/2108#81

by PeWi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 01:07:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

also, they have been known to be too friendly with Haider's FPO in Austria and with Anti-Semites in Germany.

by PeWi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 01:09:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

Omigosh. Then forget it.

by mimi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 01:17:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

Are you talking about Moellemann?

I have no great love for the FDP but to put them into the anti-semitic corner is IMHO unfair.

by Detlef (Detlef1961_at_yahoo_dot_de) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 01:32:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

I am getting scared. This is a somewhat dangerous result so far. Too many votes to too many third parties, or not? Reminds me of the 1920ies.

Has Schroeder or the SPD in general ever given a hint that they would agree to go into a SPD/CDU coalition?

by mimi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 01:41:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

It´s an awful result!

It´s either a "grand coalition" or some three party coalition. And both options probably won´t produce a government able to really govern.
Not to mention the possibility of another federal election not that far away...

Thank you, Schroeder, for insisting on early elections!!!

by Detlef (Detlef1961_at_yahoo_dot_de) on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 02:15:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (none / 0)

Yes, I was referering to the (now dead) Moelleman, and o.k maybe it is a little bit unfair, but they do have had unpleasant involvments (including attempts to overtake and vote out of the current leadership) with right wingish characters.

by PeWi on Sun Sep 18th, 2005 at 01:48:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: German elections Thread (