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by Gjermund E Jansen
From the diaries ~ whataboutbob
The Iranian move to suspend large parts of it's gas deliveries to Turkey can bee seen as a counter move to the Turkish governments more firm stance against Iran last week, when the Turkish Foreign Minister seemed to have fallen down on the E3/US more hawkish stance and urged Iran to avoid any move that could erode its dialogue with the international society.
"Turkey hopes that Iran would immediately engage into a full and transparent cooperation with the tripartite European Union (EU) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to overcome the crisis of confidence," the statement from Foreign Ministry said on Saturday.This latest move from the Iranian government to use their leverage as a big energy power in the standoff with the West has added to the speculations over whether the country is willing to withhold both oil and gas from world markets in case of a showdown over the nuclear affair. But such a self-imposed boycott would mean a further increase in the oil price for the consumers countries and the drying up of oil revenues for Iran and thus an unlikely scenario, given the fact that the supply of oil and gas are, in the words of the head of the US Energy Information Administration, Guy Caruso; "(.....)so tightly balanced. It's a fungible world oil market, and any disruption in supply affects everyone, because the price would go up for everyone, thus clearly, we can't afford to lose a large supply of crude to the market at this stage."It is one thing to use a countries power leverage in a bilateral relations, given the world's energy-hunger. It's quite a different story to cut off the supply totally and thus terminating the country's own power asset and at the same time cutting most of their own export sector and thus the national income in the process. The recent negotiations and preliminary agreements with both Asian and European companies suggest that such a move is highly unlikely. Another country in the region that has broken the silence and aligned with the E3 countries and the US in the dispute with Iran is Saudi Arabia.
Prince Saud al-Faisal, the veteran Saudi Foreign Minister, attending a conference on Terrorism in London on January 15th, criticised President Ahmadinejad's Administration, urging him to forgo atomic energy, to moderate his foreign policy and resist the temptation of interfering in Iraq.The scenario of Iran going nuclear have lead to the belief that Saudi Arabia might follow suit, given the differences between the two countries in the past, but the Saudi Prince reassured the press that that has never been and will never be an option. Still, the thought of having a nuclear equipped Iran at their doorstep is a matter of grave concern for both Turkey and Saudi-Arabia, even if it is for different reasons. Iran and Turkey have had an expanding, and sometimes colliding, geo-strategic interest in the newly independent Central-Asian republics. Saudi-Arabia and Iran, on the other hand, have had an ongoing ideological conflict ever since the Iranian revolution in 1979, with the Iranian theocracy supporting militant groups within Saudi-Arabia opposing the absolutist regime of the Saudi family. With the scenario of Iran becoming the second nuclear power in the Middle East, after Israel, it would alter the geo-political situation in the area and represent a severe threat to many countries in the region, possibly leading to either an arms race or the formation of new security constellations in order to regain the perceived geo-strategic equilibrium in the area.
Facing the scenario of a nuclear equipped Iran in the future the tension in the Middle East would certainly increase and might even lead to an arms race encouraging other nations to pursue their dream of becoming a nuclear power. That would mean the end of the NPT (Non-proliferation Treaty) and increase the risk of Islamist groups like Hezbollah acquiring nuclear weapons given the tight relations between this group and Iran. It could also possibly mean an even more aggressive Iranian foreign policy in the region and in particular in Lebanon and southern Iraq under the cover of the Iranian States newly acquired nuclear power status. What is unlikely though is the scenario of Iran deliberately going to war with Israel since it would mean the end of much of the Middle East including themselves, but it could mean a new era of regional Cold War. |
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The Middle East and a nuclear equipped Iran | 27 comments (27 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
The Middle East and a nuclear equipped Iran | 27 comments (27 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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