American Midterm Election (Updated)

by Drew J Jones Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 04:00:53 AM EST

In case some of you -- or, for that matter, all of you -- have not heard the news out of Washington this week, a prominent Republican congressman, Mark Foley of Florida, whose district begins roughly two and a half miles North of my parents' home in Palm Beach County, has resigned after sending emails to under-18 pages that apparently lead us to conclude -- along with the resignation -- that he may be a pedophile. The Republican leadership in the House, as we now know, has been aware of this for years and did nothing. Foley, for you lovers of irony, was the chairman of the Committee on Missing & Exploited Children. The Religious Right, already severely depressed, is sitting in silence, of course. The FBI is now investigating.

That's one more seat that just went from "Toss-Up" to "Likely Democratic". Daily Kos's sister website, MyDD, is now also producing projections (House here, Senate here) for the two chambers. The probability of Democratic control in the House is now up to 90%, and that comes prior to the Foley case turning potentially into a massive scandal. (Investigations are being launched.) The Senate story isn't as strong, but it looks like we'll end up with a tie at this point, depending on how you count Lieberman: 50 Republicans, 48 Dems, Lieberman, and Bernie Sanders (who is an independent socialist from Vermont). But, if the Dems can close the deals in Missouri and Virginia, as seems increasingly likely, you can toss another two into the Dem column at the GOP's expense.

All in all, good news. Oh, and the NYT has a profile on Howard Dean and the 50-State Strategy.

Update: The NRCC Chairman's Chief of Staff apparently tried to convince ABC News, which broke the story, to cover up the more hideous conversations between Foley and a sixteen-year-old. The Speaker of the House now refuses to answer questions. This is exploding.

New poll shows Democrat Tim Mahoney has already cleared the 50% mark in the race for Foley's seat. The fat lady may not be singing, but that's only because she's late to work.

American Midterm Election (Updated) | 50 comments (50 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: American Midterm Election Update (none / 0)

So Lieberman is projected to win his seat as an independent? Would he caucus with the Republicans?

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 04:12:22 AM EST

Re: American Midterm Election Update (none / 0)

If he wins, he says he'll caucus with the Dems. It's by no means a sure thing that he'll win. Last I saw, the race was 47-45-6 -- Lieberman, Lamont, Schlesinger. And Lamont has made a lot of progress, with some room still left to grow.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 04:16:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: American Midterm Election Update (4.00 / 2)

Schlesinger should pull out of the race, it's clear who the state's Republicans are voting for.

It's funny Lieberman's party is called "Connecticut for Lieberman" instead of "Lieberman for Connecticut".

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 04:24:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: American Midterm Election Update (none / 0)

No, we don't want Schlesinger to pull out. If he pulls out, those people will go to Lieberman, and the race will be over.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 04:56:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: American Midterm Election Update (none / 0)

I'm saying that's what Rove should be doing.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 04:59:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: American Midterm Election Update (none / 0)

Oh, of course. Schlesinger has the potential to be the Ralph Nader to Joe Lieberman's Al Gore, so I'm sure the GOP is wetting its pants.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 05:01:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: American Midterm Election Update (none / 1)

wouldn't it then be good to paint Rove as "the man who handed the state to the Democrats"

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 01:47:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: American Midterm Election Update (none / 0)

Here's something I've been longing to say for well over a decade: Things are not looking good for George Allen. Jerk.

That said, this contest seems to be sadly continuing Virginia's tradition of giving voters a choice between bad and worse. (Reference the 1994 Senate campaign, when we were asked to choose between a guy who lied to his wife and a guy who lied to Congress....)

On Allen/Webb, WaPo quotes Jon Stewart: "Well, Virginia. It's now up to you. Which of these two men will help you build a bridge to, let's say, the early- to mid-20th century?"

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 04:15:29 AM EST

Re: American Midterm Election Update (none / 0)

This from wikipedia:

Below are some bills that Allen introduced or authored in the Senate
* Introduced "Flexibility for Champion Schools Act" which would allow states with higher education standards to lower their standards to match federal standards

Jerk.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 04:21:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: American Midterm Election Update (none / 1)

He really is an asshole. Spits at female reporters. Calls citizens of Indian descent "Macaca". The epitome of a disgrace to the South. If Virginia reelects him, it will strengthen a lot of ugly stereotypes about Virginians.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 04:44:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: American Midterm Election Update (4.00 / 2)

The epitome of a disgrace to the South. If Virginia reelects him, it will strengthen a lot of ugly stereotypes about Virginians.

I can pretty much see the "Virginia is for Assholes" vanity plates if that happens.

To let you all in on the joke, Virginia has a tourism campaign going on now where they put "Virginia is for lovers" on things, like hot air balloons.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 05:06:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: American Midterm Election Update (4.00 / 3)

Well, Virginia also has a history of electing people in defiance of stereotypes, so there's hope.

Virginia really has multiple personalities -- Northern Virginia could be on a different planet than central or western Virginia, and the Tidewater area is another planet still. Encouragingly, in last year's House of Delegates election, several districts went to Democrats that have never, ever, ever voted Democratic before.

In general, it's been much more middle-of-the-road than it's given credit for. Virginia reliably goes red during presidential elections, but it also has elected two Democratic governors in a row, and has historically tended to have one Democratic senator and one Republican one.

Yes, Allen's an asshole, and dumber than rocks. Makes GWB look like a Rhodes Scholar. Honestly, I could spend hours just listing examples. My only question is why it's taken so many people this long to figure that out.

If you haven't seen the original macaca remarks, prepare to be appalled. The worst part is at the very end. "Welcome to America," my ass.

The Webb campaign volunteer who was behind the camera, SR Sidarth, pointed out that Allen isn't even actually a Virginian:

What hurt more, Sidarth said, was when Allen gave him a sarcastic welcome to his own country, his birthplace even. It was too ironic, he thought. "I was born and raised in Fairfax County, and he's from California...."

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 05:27:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: American Midterm Election Update (4.00 / 2)

I just wish there were a better way to win these these things, like, say, promoting good policy.
Relying on the monumental fuck-ups of the Republicans doesn't sit well with me. If the Foleys of the world get us back into the majority, I can't really take any joy in that. One day I would like public debate to center around things like education, healthcare, foreign policy, energy, our completely fucked way of doing everything in this country. Not blow jobs or gay sex or pedophilia. I also want to know why the fuck all those people who got so righteous with anger toward those of us ostensibly not suppporting our troops, to those of us not "embracing family values", where the hell is their righteous anger toward people like Foley? And why the hell is this headlines and yet some girl on an NPR quiz show last night had never even heard of the torture bill?

Sorry. I know we need to throw the bastards out. But I don't have the first clue how to convince people to care about anything political that doesn't involve sex.

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire

by p------- on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 08:20:08 AM EST

Re: American Midterm Election Update (4.00 / 2)

Not blow jobs or gay sex or pedophilia.

You know, it worries me the way these get equated in political discourse. Underage sex is not the same as pedophile abuse is not the same as consensual oral sex with an adult is not the same as gay sex. Two of these are crimes, one is a crime and an illness and two are legal acts between consenting adults that have no place in politics unless the participants are being hypocritical by pushing an anti-gay or moral line.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 08:24:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: American Midterm Election Update (4.00 / 2)

I agree. I wasn't equating them. The Christian right might equate them, but I fear they get more outraged over the blow jobs and gay sex than the pedophilia. I was simply saying that no one seems to pay attention until sex is involved and then it's like a field day at the gallows. Either way, we impeached a perfectly decent President for a blow job and re-elected a dictator who is intent on destroying the world. We have a Republican party that has repeatedly defied the Constitution, and they're going down for being/covering up for sexual predators. Of course everyone involved in this Foley scandal should be stripped of their duties and brought before a judge and jury. I'm just dissapointed that this is how we "win."

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire

by p------- on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 08:51:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: American Midterm Election Update (none / 0)

I'm not sure even a majority of the Christian Right would equate them.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 03:17:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: American Midterm Election Update (none / 0)

I don't actually mean a thoughtful conflation, just the way I've seen them linked together several times with regard to the current scandal.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 03:22:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: American Midterm Election Update (none / 0)

Oh, I know. I was just throwing the comment out there. There was a reason. (I promise.) I just can't remember what it was -- no doubt my reward for smoking too much dope in high school. I completely agree, though. They mentioned in the same breath and, really, are by no stretch of the imagination morally equivalent.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 03:24:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Good policy (none / 1)

Have you sent Energize America to your candidates?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 02:56:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good policy (none / 0)

My "candidate" is Rahm Emanuel. Has it not been sent to him yet?

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire

by p------- on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 03:01:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good policy (none / 0)

Christ. I think I'd shoot myself if little Rahm were my representative. Emanuel has been trying to screw Dean from the beginning of Dean's tenure at the DNC (see article). If it were up to little Rahm, the damned party would never campaign outside of the Northeast.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 03:15:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good policy (none / 1)

I don't want to shoot myself. I want to shoot him. Figuratively speaking, of course.

Man, the whole Cegelis thing made me want to drop out of politics permanently. I didn't know if we were dealing with the DCCC or the mafia. Seriously, we have to challenge him next time around. He might know how to make money, but he's not too keen on the whole idea of democracy...

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire

by p------- on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 03:44:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good policy (none / 0)

I do so cherish your comments, poemless. :)

I'm with you all the way. We absolutely should challenge him, and any other Democrat who abandons the party's core values. Bringing in money from Big Donors (read: Big Business) is no longer a necessary condition for successful candidates. We can beat the hell out of the Republicans on money when we actually put some effort into it. I'm for candidates who, regardless of fundraising, take the positions I support on the issues. And, if a candidate does, he/she will get my vote and perhaps even a donation.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 05:02:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I wouldn't know (none / 0)

I have not sent the plan to any US politician myself.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 03:40:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I wouldn't know (4.00 / 4)

Have the other EA2020 people?

Ok, here's whatcha need to do. Get an e-mail list. Have people sign up, give them a press kit and a walk through, have them register to contact their Senators and reps about EA2020, and then report back. Ok, I know that seems like a lot, since it is still in the process of actually being created, but when you reach the point, and I assume you have, where you feel you have a solid policy proposal, then I would start this process of distribution and feedback. After November, of course.

You may also want to look into setting up meetups or working with existing ones. It seems the time is ripe for some serious grassroots energy policy movements. Then these groups could hold formal meetings with their reps. This sounds like a pain, but it is the way things are done. Just mailing in or dropping off (after anthrax it's a bad idea anyway) something, it could easily end up in a black hole. If you want people to hear you you have to set up a meeting, usually with an aide.

So, you need to have a running tally of who has and who has not been contacted about EA2020, and then another running tally of those who are interested, supportive, etc, and those who aren't.

I would also get this out to Presidential candidates to improve the odds of it actually ending up in some public debate.

I imagine the Americans on this project already know all of this, and you may be able to cooridinate everything through Kos instaed of an e-mail list. Just throwing my .02 out there.

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire

by p------- on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 04:19:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: American Midterm (none / 1)

"...where the hell is their righteous anger toward people like Foley?"

An editorial at the Washington Times (conservative paper) calls for the resignation of the Speaker of the House. That's a pretty strong statement...

"The facts of the disgrace of Mark Foley, who was a Republican member of the House from a Florida district until he resigned last week, constitute a disgrace for every Republican member of Congress... House Speaker Dennis Hastert must do the only right thing, and resign his speakership at once. Either he was grossly negligent for not taking the red flags fully into account and ordering a swift investigation, for not even remembering the order of events leading up to last week's revelations -- or he deliberately looked the other way in hopes that a brewing scandal would simply blow away..."
http://www.washingtontimes.com/op-ed/20061002-102008-9058r.htm

by asdf on Tue Oct 3rd, 2006 at 11:54:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: American Midterm (none / 1)

It seems more than a tad hollow, though. In fact, it simply seems like ass-covering in MoonieWorld.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 05:48:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: American Midterm Election Update (none / 0)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 05:27:15 PM EST

Re: American Midterm Election Update (none / 0)

???

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 05:28:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Sorry (none / 1)

I posted this here because I could not upload it to flickr to post as a comment on DailyKos. It's linked to the Foley story, so this was as good a place as any.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 05:31:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sorry (none / 0)

I don't get your point...

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire

by p------- on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 05:37:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I was responding to this (4.00 / 2)

http://www.dailykos.com/comments/2006/10/2/1486/24115/188#c188

Sex crimes are horrible, but that does not preclude a lot of ignorance on side aspects of the question.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 05:50:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I was responding to this (none / 0)

Agreed.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 06:02:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I was responding to this (4.00 / 5)

I think it's absolute and utter bullshit.

Child abuse, especially of the sexual variety, is notoriously under-reported. First off, it is very rare that anyone is caught to begin with. That they are prosecuted and end up in the system where they can be tracked is even more rare, and that future victims will report the abuse, rare again... I think the graph says more about the nature of the crime than the prepetrator's tendency to repeat it. Show me a social worker or prosecutor who would leave their kids alone with someone who has been convicted of sexually abusing children. Show me a sexual predator who has only had one victim. Show me a system of successfull rehabilitation that does not involve some type of surveillance, be it jail or random home visits.

This is not a crime one commits because of their financial circumstances or drugs or social environment, all of which are subject to change over time. It's a crime commited because of one's hard-wired psychology. Which is pretty freaking hard to change. It is possible, but not common.

When we achieve a society where victims of childhood sexual abuse can report their crimes with the same frequency that people report car thefts, I'll come back and take a look at your graph.

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire

by p------- on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 06:12:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I was responding to this (none / 0)

Well, maybe sex offenders go back to crime less because they are monitored more. I don't know. ManfromMiddletown's numbers below are pretty similar to those I provided.

Which begs the question: what do we do with sex criminals? The death penalty? Life (as in, their whole life) in prison? If there is no hope of redemption or change in their basic nature, as you say, what else can we do?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 10:44:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I was responding to this (none / 1)

Internment into a psychiatric institution? Castration?

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 10:47:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I was responding to this (4.00 / 2)

Uhm, do you really want to here more of my opinions today? :)

I'm firmly against the death penalty, and life imprisonment doesn't seem an ideal solution. But you see, that's the thing with America. Have you seen our prison rates? We solve everything with a prison sentence. Prevention, treatment and rehabilitation are pretty far down the list.

What we could start with is providing resources for victims of these crimes. Educating children on how adults should treat them and let them know what to do if an adult has not treated them properly. Then we have to prosecute those who commit these crimes. It is very difficult because it is essentially the word of a child (or worse, a teenager) against an adult. But these people must be tried and, yes, punished for their crimes. Saying you are sorry and promsing not to do it anymore doesn't fly with other crimes, and it shouldn't fly with abusing a minor. And lastly, intensive psychological treatment should be required.

Castration? Hey, people convicted of gun crimes aren't allowed to posess firearms; maybe people convicted of sex crimes shouldn't be allowed to possess their weapon of choice...

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire

by p------- on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 12:47:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I was responding to this (none / 0)

I agree in general, but I have issues with recovered memories as the only evidence of abuse.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 03:13:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I was responding to this (none / 0)

Well, unless you are personally involved in such a situation, whether or not you have issues with it is pretty irrelevant.

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire

by p------- on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 03:27:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I was responding to this (none / 0)

By that logic just about 99% of the discussions on this site are disqualified.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 03:35:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I was responding to this (none / 0)

That's not true at all! Think about it for, oh, 10 seconds...

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire

by p------- on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 03:37:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I was responding to this (none / 1)

Take our discussion of torture, for instance.

Anyway, am I allowed to take this topic as an excuse to bring up the issue of the accuracy of memory?

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 03:40:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I was responding to this (none / 1)

I'm sorry I blew up at you. I've had a pretty challenging day and have managed to disappoint ot piss of just about everyone I've opened my mouth to.

Long story short. I work with survivors of sexual abuse and incest survivors. And fall into that category myself. It's a part of my life I try to keep seperate from here, for my own sanity. But the equation of an individual's personal struggle to recover from abuse, which has no impact on you, with public policy regarding energy or economics or social equality, which impact you everyday, is false and irresponsible and warrants correction.

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire

by p------- on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 03:44:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I was responding to this (none / 1)

Look, I had one girlfriend who was sexually abused as a child and another one I suspect was, too. It sucks. This stuff has impact on everyone's life, if only indirectly.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 03:46:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I was responding to this (none / 0)

Huh? That's a bizarre thing to say. If recovered memories aren't accurate then they're not suitable evidence.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 03:45:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I was responding to this (4.00 / 3)

The recidivism figures you give are for the UK.

A lot of child sexual abuse goes unreported.

In the US, the recidevism rate for sexual offenders is 43 %.

Of the 272,111 persons released from prisons in 15 States in 1994, an estimated 67.5% were rearrested for a felony or serious misdemeanor within 3 years, 46.9% were reconvicted, and 25.4% resentenced to prison for a new crime.

The 272,111 offenders discharged in 1994 accounted for nearly 4,877,000 arrest charges over their recorded careers.

Within 3 years of release, 2.5% of released rapists were rearrested for another rape, and 1.2% of those who had served time for homicide were arrested for a new homicide.

Sex offenders were less likely than non-sex offenders to be rearrested for any offense -- 43 percent of sex offenders versus 68 percent of non-sex offenders.

Sex offenders were about four times more likely than non-sex offenders to be arrested for another sex crime after their discharge from prison -- 5.3 percent of sex offenders versus 1.3 percent of non-sex offenders.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 09:50:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I was responding to this (4.00 / 3)

Hmmm. 'Rearrested' means the numbers will be too low, by definition.

I had a girlfriend who was molested by a so-called spiritual teacher. Complaints were made, notes were taken, but the CPS decided the case wasn't solid enough to make a prosecution likely, and no arrest was made - even though we found out that her story wasn't the only one on file.

She was all set to just let it go, but I thought it was important to report it because it was unlikely to be an isolated incident.

The is probably not an unusual story. So the percentage of active reoffenders, as opposed to arrested reoffenders, is harder to estimate.

If you assume that only half of all possible cases result in arrests - which isn't unreasonable - you're already close to 100% active recidivism.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Oct 4th, 2006 at 04:27:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sorry (none / 0)

No need to apologize, by the way. Well done, maestro.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 06:04:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: American Midterm Election (Updated) (none / 1)

You are right on the politics on this one Drew, and the Republicans have dealt themselves what is likely to be a lethal blow. Here are some comments from the Chicago Tribune, which I like to look at to get a sense for what mid-America is thinking about:

A Time magazine poll released on Thursday found that two-thirds of Americans aware of the page scandal believe Republican leaders tried to cover it up. Fox News reported that internal Republican polling indicates the party could lose as many as 50 seats in the House in the Nov. 7 elections, giving the Democrats control.
An AP/Ipsos poll showed that half of likely voters say the Foley scandal will be "very or extremely important" when they vote. By nearly a 2-1 ratio, voters say Democrats are better at combating corruption.

It looks like a perfect storm for the R's--the incident is horrible, questions of mishandling and cover-up are being legitimately raised, and with the timing so close to the election, it seems unlikely the event will fall off the voter's radar screen before voting day.

Only the Democrat's penchant for messing up a good thing would seem to stand in the way of a major victory for the Democrats.

by wchurchill on Fri Oct 6th, 2006 at 12:26:44 PM EST

Re: American Midterm Election (Updated) (none / 0)

Quite an October Surpise, it seems. Just as everybody was waiting for Rove to pull a stunt, -- wham -- this time bomb explodes in the Speaker's office, and it may well cost the Republicans everything.

Couldn't have happened to a nicer group of folks, "I tell you what" (as we say in the South).

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 6th, 2006 at 01:46:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

American Midterm Election (Updated) | 50 comments (50 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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Origins of German Neo-Austerianism

Ferguson hates on Keynes

Dionysian revels: Nice, May Day 2013:

Anglo Or Not, It's A Disease

The UK and the Euro

Free Energy: Solar and Dynamo LED Keychain Lights

Kruganomics 101

Gold

Corporate Profits and Aggregate Demand

VC Investment: Then and Now

An Ambush of Wishful thinking and Cargo Cult law.

The Intellectual Foundations of Austerity destroyed

Spring is Sprung - Photoblog