Welcome to the new version of European Tribune. It's just a new layout, so everything should work as before - please report bugs here.

Ségolène Royal chosen as Socialist candidate

by Jerome a Paris Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 03:52:43 AM EST

See the thread below for a description of the candidates and the election.

UPDATE: Final results
82,04 % of party members voted
Ségolène Royal 60.62% (106 839 votes)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 20.83% (36 714 votes)
Laurent Fabius 18.54% (32 677 votes)

Earlier estimates below the fold, and press coverage in the Salon thread starting here.


According to most estimates provided at this time (23:45pm Paris time), Ségolène Royal has been chosen by 55-60% of the Socialist militants and will thus be the cnadidate of the Socialist Party for the Presidential election next April.

Estimates give Strauss-Kahn 35% and Fabius less than 10%.

That sounds like a pretty good result, with a strong endorsement for the candidate (winning in the first round) as well as, from my perspective, a very strong showing for Strauss-Kahn's modern social-democracy. A Royal/Strauss-Kahn 'ticket' (President/Prime Minister), implicit or explicit, will look attractive to a lot of people.

Put your results and comments in the thread. We'll update the front page with final results as they come.

Display:
blimey, that was quick. You were talking about 4:00 am tomorrow.

Still, makes things interesting.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Nov 16th, 2006 at 05:48:20 PM EST
4:00 am was announced as final results time. It seems the count was in quicker.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 05:29:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
She si in...next president.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Thu Nov 16th, 2006 at 05:55:56 PM EST
unless she suddenly makes some huge mistake prety soon that breaks her narrative.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Thu Nov 16th, 2006 at 05:56:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That is the other narrative that the right is doing its best to sell:

she is weak, inconstant, and inexperienced in the ways of the gritty tough real world, because she is a woman.

I think she's perfectly aware of this and will know how to counter it.

Tha narrative we don't hear (because Sarkozy controls most of the media) is that tough-guy Sarko himself can make mistakes. He made a big one by situating himself too far out to the right in hopes of stealing Le Pen's electorate. It's now hard for him to come back in to the fuzzier, warmer zones of the centre.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 01:33:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sarkozy controls most of the media

How does Sarkozy control the media?

He made a big one by situating himself too far out to the right in hopes of stealing Le Pen's electorate.

Is there any possibility that Le Pen will run?  If so, will votes for Le Pen significantly cut into votes that otherwise would go to Sarkozy?


Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 01:37:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How Sarkozy controls most of the media is a question I may touch on if I get time today to finish a piece about Libération. Mainly, though, the answer is twofold: Sarko is N° 2 in the government and the government has influence over public TV and radio, especially TV; the privately-owned media are mostly privately-owned by businessmen who are sympathetic to -- and even persoanl friends of -- Sarkozy.

Le Pen is definitely running, has announced the fact. He may be expected to get at least the 16%-17% he got last time, and quite possibly more. In the first round, that will be votes Sarko will not get. Polls indicate that Sarko will all the same clear 30% in the first round, and therefore get into the second. (Though at this stage, this is not sure -- polls always show a low estimate for the Le Pen vote, possibly because some voters don't want to admit to voting Front National).

Sarko's "work" on law 'n' order 'n' immigration themes was designed to chip away at Le Pen's base. And get that base behind him in the second round. He may succeed in getting more Le Pen voters behind him in Round Two than have previous "centre-right" candidates in presidentials, but his problem now is that he's positioned way off to the right and has left open an avenue, un boulevard, in the cantre. Which Royal and François Bayrou are benefitting from, and Villepin and Alliot-Marie are ogling with appetite.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 02:45:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
badly again as in 2002, and causing a Sarcozy Le Pen second round?

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!
by LEP on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 04:20:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think this clear strong vote for Royal reduces the risk. It seems to me there's an intent behind it: let's not get caught out like the last time. Let's unite behind a good candidate.

Chevènement (sovereignist ie anti-EU left) has announced his candidature again but said he will desist if there appears to be a risk of a Sarko-Le Pen second round. It doesn't seem likely the Radicaux de Gauche will field a candidate (pity in fact, since their candidate, Christiane Taubira, is a black woman and has plenty to say and says it well). The non-PS left is wallowing around in a mess and currently polling weakly. (Pity again, since the Greens are almost disappearing in this mess).

The remaining query is: will Fabius be tempted to run a rogue candidacy? He got 18% in this primary. He's not considered credible by the hard left. He doesn't appear to have a base there on which to run. If he does, it will be a vanity thing. Would he succeed in splitting the vote? Possibly, but he might get a backlash against him.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 04:45:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
to the left will will remember 2002 and also Nader's role in 2000 Bush v. Gore. Gore should have won in 2000 even with Nader's running, but he didn't, and that resulted in a major disaster for the U.S. and the world. Chirac in 2002 was not such a catastrophe, since he's an old shoe and not so dangerous as the new shoe which we haven't tried on yet. My wife held her nose and voted for Chirac(I must admit sheepishly that I kind of like Chirac-he reminds me of Carmine DeSapio of Tammany Hall in N.Y. who deliverd a chicken to everyone at Christmas) but it would be torture for her to have to vote for Sarcozy.

P.S. When I was  young law student in N.Y. in the early 60's I worked for the Reform Dems to oust Carmine DeSapio. We won and got Ed Koch. I regretted that my whole life.

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!

by LEP on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 05:22:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Chevènement is highly unlikely to get the 500 official supports to be allowed to be candidate. Fabius has so far taken a very supportive line wrt Royal.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 09:57:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Dominique Strauss-Kahn has made a statement in which he said:

She won, she really won, and everyone will be behind her now.

AFAIK, Fabius has not yet spoken but is expected to do so soon.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 06:27:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Fabius was less clear than DSK, but he obviously doesn't seem to be thinking of running as a rogue candidate.

He said it was now up to Royal to bring together the socialists, and he was personally prepared for that. He let it be understood, however, that he expected her to take his more leftish policy planks on board... With, I suppose, the threat behind that of not calling to vote for her come the election.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 06:55:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It looks like DSK is out to patch things up with Royal in view of a power-sharing agreement. DSK Prime Minister?
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 06:57:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Because one third of the media is controlled by Hachette, part of the Lagardère group, and Arnaud Lagardère is an intimate friend of Sarkozy (he presented him to his employess as such: 'this is not my friend, this is my brother', and he got Alain Genestar, the Editor in Chief of Paris Match, fired for publishing the picture of Cecilia Sarkozy with her lover last year).

Because another third is controlled by Marcel Dassault, a rabidly rightwing guy (and UMP MP).

Both Lagardère (EADS) and Dassault (Dassault) are big arms groups wholly dependent on State orders.

And the rest is in terrible financial situation and thus dependent on existing State subsidies

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 09:56:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
See my diary now up : Crisis at Libération -- Part One
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 11:11:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hopefully this link works (Le monde):
http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,1-0@2-823448,36-835442,0.html

All scores for Ségolène Royal are consistent, in the upper 55-60% range. Lots more variation for the other two. Now Le Monde has them at 22% (DSK) and 17% (Fabius).

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Nov 16th, 2006 at 06:08:21 PM EST
Latest:

0h20. Sur 130 400 votants, et sans le dépouillement de Paris et de la Seine-et-Marne notamment, Ségolène Royal obtient 60,89 % des voix, Dominique Strauss-Kahn 19,22 % et Laurent Fabius 19,79 %, selon le Nouvel Observateur.


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Nov 16th, 2006 at 06:43:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
seems to be in the 80% range.

Again, this is 80% of paid up members of the party.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Nov 16th, 2006 at 06:09:03 PM EST
"Strong showing for Strauss-Kahn's modern social-democracy. A Royal/Strauss-Kahn 'ticket' (President/Prime Minister), implicit or explicit, will look attractive to a lot of people."

I could certainly live with that.

Tell me again why Europe can't recolonize the U.S? New York City would make such a nice DOM-TOM!

by Matt in NYC on Thu Nov 16th, 2006 at 06:19:25 PM EST
In such case, sure to be some hot stuff going on between Matignon and L'Elysee. DSK being a compulsive womaniser is public knowledge.
Not sure however, Segolene will be able to keep pace with him. Anne (his wife) has long given up.

When through hell, just keep going. W. Churchill
by Agnes a Paris on Thu Nov 16th, 2006 at 07:17:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Because of the second amendment.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 03:24:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Could you elaborate?

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.
by marco on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 04:53:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's an unserious answer to a hopefully unserious question.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 04:57:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You have obviously never watched The Manchurian Candidate.

The sleeper cells and fifth column are being activated as we speak.

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 05:15:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
DL:

As a staunch Royalist, I urge you to cross-post an article in French, at DKos, with pictures, of Royal's victory.

"When the abyss stares at me, it wets its pants." Brian Hopkins

by EricC on Thu Nov 16th, 2006 at 06:23:17 PM EST
You mean, Jerome is really quick ! Almost better tham Reuters but that would be unfair on Jerome's editorial quality.

When through hell, just keep going. W. Churchill
by Agnes a Paris on Thu Nov 16th, 2006 at 07:13:15 PM EST
Bravo Segolene!

Does anyone want to speculate a little on how the Royal-Sarko "battle royale" is likely to play out?

Is there truth to the rumor that the Chirac gang would rather lose to SR than having to put up with Sarko at the Elysee Palace and therefore will act accordingly in the months ahead?  And if so, what can they actually do? (Volunteer Sarko for the next space shuttle launch?)

by Bernard Chazelle (Bernard Chazelle) on Thu Nov 16th, 2006 at 08:00:16 PM EST
All this is very unpredictable, it's too soon. A lot of stuff can happen. History shows that the "in advance" designed final contenders in a FRench Presidential election are NEVER the ones predicted, at least for one of them.
by oldfrog on Thu Nov 16th, 2006 at 09:57:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And if so, what can they actually do? (Volunteer Sarko for the next space shuttle launch?)

According to the Nouvel Observateur, Chirac could still possibly run for president:

A l'idée que Jacques Chirac pourrait siéger au Conseil constitutionnel - avec Giscard! - la voilà remontée à nouveau. "Oui, il ira. Dans cinq ans !" Et elle répète: "Vous m'entendez. Dans cinq ans"... On ne saurait être plus clair. At the idea that Jacques Chirac could take his place at the Constitutional Council [as a former president] -- with Giscard [d'Estaing]! --  [his wife, Bernadette] braces up again.  "Sure he will.  In five years!"  And she repeats: "You hear me?  In five years."... One couldn't be more clear.

Seriously?  Does septuagenarian Chirac despise Sarkozy so much that he would go through the trouble of running for president (with no chances of winning, I gather) just to sabotage Sarkozy's chances?

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco on Thu Nov 16th, 2006 at 10:18:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This must be a bad joke.

But as Blair is demonstrating every day, saying good-bye seems difficult for these people.

by Bernard Chazelle (Bernard Chazelle) on Thu Nov 16th, 2006 at 10:53:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Madame Chirac flew that kite. Monsieur Chirac said not to count on him for holding the strings.

There's a lot of kite-flying around Alliot-Marie and Villepin etc. Sarkozy has more enemies on his own side than Royal on hers.

As I suggested in the first primary thread, Sarkozy was hoping the PS process would drag on and become embittered, weakening Royal in public opinion.

He now has a reply from Socialist party members.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 01:18:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I do not this the Chirac' gang as you call it, has any capacity to block Sarko of being the next president, they are too few and too weak. They can not do what they ve done to Giscard d'Estaing.

Sego will be crush in each debate With Sarko and there are not enough lazy public servants to give her the crown.

by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 12:05:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
More reactionary nonsense from you, fredouil. I don't see why it should become banal around here to let by the supposition that

  • a woman can't stand up to a "real man" in a debate;

  • public servants are lazy;

  • that Royal would be exclusively backed by aforesaid public servants.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 01:22:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
   " *  a woman can't stand up to a "real man" in a debate;"

nothing to do with her sex, Sarko is dam good at debating  and has ideas.

   "* public servants are lazy;"

pretty much a fact :
those who wanted to become public servant before 1980 (low unemployment, low level of qualification needed) were the lazy and under-performing ones.the socialist pary is mainly a teachers' organization and they are quite happy to let 400,000 youth leaving without qualification/education as long as noone touch their five months of holidays (and their children climb the social ladder)

    "* that Royal would be exclusively backed by aforesaid public servants. "
 if the election follows the previous one, 95% of them and their family will vote for her, public servants support is a bit more than essential.

by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 02:27:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
  • Royal too is darn good at debating and has ideas, a darn sight better ones than the authoritarian economic-liberal crap Sarko serves up;

  • back up that "pretty much a fact", if not it's an empty smear;

  • Royal will not be counting on public servants alone, which is what I said.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 02:53:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
what kind of first name is 'segolene'?

she sure is easy on the eye...

she looks like a modern, empowered role model, 4 kids and a single mum?

wow...

and other profound punditry....

"We can all be prosperous but we can't all be rich." Ian Welsh

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Thu Nov 16th, 2006 at 08:24:21 PM EST
it has Germanic origins :

Sèg = Sieg = victory
lène = lind (len in Swedish) = sweet

So it means Sweet Victory...

The most known French Ségolène in history (before Mme Royal) was Saint Ségolène from the Languedoc, an abbotess who "healed" lepracy.

This first name was very uncommon in France until the 90ies. About 5200 persons have been "christened" Ségolène in France since 1900...

 http://www.tous-les-prenoms.com/prenoms/filles/segolene.html

notice the sharp decline after 1992

by oldfrog on Thu Nov 16th, 2006 at 09:30:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If that site is correct, she is one of only 6 persons which received this name in 1953. Anyway, she is actually  Marie Ségolène Royal.
by Deni on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 07:17:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
She comes from a family background which I would expect to use rare names: a traditionalist one, father in the military, many kids.
Gossip: she grew up not far away from my hometown, and a friend of my mother knew them, and told us the father view of a family was not of a fun loving place. His not being married, albeit her very long relationship, may be a small private rebellion...


La répartie est dans l'escalier. Elle revient de suite.
by lacordaire on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 07:51:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So when is the election? For the presidency of France?

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!
by A swedish kind of death on Thu Nov 16th, 2006 at 09:19:57 PM EST
first run april 22 2007, second May 6.
by oldfrog on Thu Nov 16th, 2006 at 09:43:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not quite Margaret Thatcher or for that matter Angela Merkel. I wonder if the style of a nations first female political leader (executive President or head of government in a country without an executive President) affects how subsequent female leaders will be perceived.

New Zealand has had two female Prime Ministers but other "western" democracies have only had one female top leader (if that).

It is not obvious who, if anyone, amongst the current generation of female British politicians would be a credible candidate for Prime Minister. The previous generation had vivid political figures like Thatcher, Barbara Castle and Shirley Williams, but the Blair babes (ghastly public relations framing from 1997) seem to have been drowned out at the court of Tony the Phony.

by Gary J on Thu Nov 16th, 2006 at 09:32:41 PM EST
Quite agree on the "Blair Babes", some of whom were as old as, or older than, Blair. (If you consider "babe" as a reference to youthful new arrival, of course, and not the pr0n variety...)
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 01:26:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hm. My own impression was not that: my impression was that 'Bliar Babes' were selected for deference to Tony, those who dominated were more fans of Tony than politicians with own ambition and potential.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 01:28:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes. So either "babies" in the sense dominated by a father-figure, or "babes" in the pr0n sense, ie submissive to men and Blair in particular.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 02:59:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"Pr0n"? Something to do with porn?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 05:03:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, it's a standard Internet deformation of porn, presumably to get it past spam filters.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 05:34:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You forgot to mention Gro Harlem Brundtland.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 03:25:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hmf... Please dont... ;)

And then you have former president of Iceland Vigdis Finnbogadottir, and President Conan O'Brien of Finland.

by Trond Ove on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 07:05:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Asking for Jerome's ideas about what her programme will be

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/11/17/82157/665

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 08:41:29 AM EST
J's in transit ... maybe afew will pick it up!
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 08:48:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's passing away fast, there seems not to be much interest in it.
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 09:54:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Just a quick thought on this. DSK was, in earlier previsions, given 35+% of vote against 10 or so% for the re-christened-as-a-true-lefty-during-the-referundum-on-the-constitutional Fabius.

Turns out DSK only got 20%.

As it happens, as out press from this side of the Atlantic notes

Dans la plupart des régions, la candidate remporte une nette majorité. Son vote est particulièrement massif dans le Pas-de-Calais (nord) et les Bouches-du-Rhône (sud). Il est beaucoup plus faible à Paris, château fort de Dominique Strauss-Kahn.

Redstar Translation:

Looks like DSK may have carried Ile de France, but got his ass completely kicked in the rest of the country, especially in the formerly Socialist strongholds of the North (Lille) and South (Marseille and region).

Now, in PACA, this is understandable, few will vote for a Parigo tete-de-veau technocrat same as you won't find PSG paraphernalia on any 13/83/84 cars.

But in the North, this was a direct repudiation of not just DSK, but also the PS of Jospin, Aubry and her father Delors. The PS of the 35-hour initiative, which betrayed working class interests in favor of the urban professional white-collar/functionary set which form the backbone of DSK's support, was rejected. And not for the first time. Jospin owes his loss in 2002 to this, and Aubry, billed as a possible PM five years ago, lost possibly the safest seat for the PS in all of France to this.

That Royal calls in question 35 hours implementation is very much in line with this history, which plays very well to perceptions of class, especially among rank and file left voters, but seems oddly to goo over the heads of many so-called "Social Democratic" voters.

As a final note, I bet the 35% came from looking at Parisian returns, and Parisian journalists assuming the trend would generalise. Standard Parigo attitude. Happily out of touch, though. DSK the technocrat may well have been competitive in Ile de France, but he would get his ass handed to him in most of the rest of France in a general.

I predict a much much less fractured left in these upcoming elections thanks to the massive affirmation of Royal's candidature. Perhaps even Buffet stepping back this time 'round, in favor of some PCF ministries (she was a good one imho). I also would say in terms of PM, Fabius will make a far more logical choice, in fact, than the DSK we can count on the national press mooting, and his immediate rallying to Royal while DSK remains coy speaks to this.

by redstar on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 10:45:34 AM EST
For those who are not well-versed in Hexagonal:

PACA is the region of Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur and PSG is the paris Saint-Germain football club.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 11:11:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Angela Merkel, Ségolène Royal,...Hillary Clinton ??  Those G8 meetings might have a whole new look.
by Grand Poobah on Fri Nov 17th, 2006 at 12:03:17 PM EST


Display:
Go to: [ European Tribune Homepage : Top of page : Top of comments ]

Top Diaries