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by Jerome a Paris
Crossposted from The Oil Drum Europe where I am now part of the contributors (and updated from an old diary on dKos from 2 years ago).
Oil & gas in the Caspian has a long history - indeed it is one of the earliest oil production regions in the world, with Baku a major oil center in the second half of the 19th century and beyond. What makes the situation today interesting is the simultaneuous appearence of three things: (i) new reserves discovered offshore, (ii) the fact that, with the break up of the Soviet Union, the oil is located in (new) countries that are keen to have foreign investment and are now one of the few oil provinces around the world that still welcome Western oil majors, and (iii) these countries have no direct access to the world markets. Graph by JaP. "kb/j" = thousand barrels per day. "Autres" = other
"Caspian energy" actually covers 3 different things:
It is this new sector that has created the hype around the Caspian and its new reserves, because it is one of the few areas in the world where big fields have been discovered in recent years. The excitement in big oil companies is real, because the province is probably the size of the North Sea AND it is accessible to them. Being the size of the North Sea only (say 30 billion barrels of oil), it will not change the oil balance of the world either - it will account at most for 3-5% of world production at its peak, in 5 to 10 years. I have some good news: Caspian oil is actually fairly simple to understand because there are only 5 hydrocarbon fields worth noting, and a couple of pipelines. So here they are: (picture from the US Energy Information Agency's Caspian area brief) (table from EIA, same link as above) (1) ACG (formerly, AIOC) That's the big oil field just offshore of Baku in the Azerbaijan sector of the Caspian Sea. It is currently the only field in Azerbaijan with proven oil reserves, despite massive exploration campaigns in the past 10 years. It is currently being developed by a Western consortium led by BP (which includes Unocal (now Chevron), ExxonMobil as well as a number of other companies), under a contract signed in 1994 (and which is public, you can download it here, along with a ton of other documents on the project). It has an estimated 5 to 7 billion barrels of recoverable oil (slightly less than what is hoped to be found in ANWR, to give you an idea). It has been producing small volumes, about 100 to 150,000 b/d, since 1998, which are exported by a small pipeline going to Georgia, the Baku Supsa (the "WREP" in the map below). They also have the right to use the Baku-Novorossisk pipeline going through Russia (the "NREP" in the map below). Big investments are underway to bring production to above 1,000,000 b/d in the next couple of years. Whan I say big investment, I mean big: more than 15 billion dollars will have been spent by 2010. Most of that oil will use a new pipeline, the BTC (see map above, and more detail below) which was completed last year and has recently entered into operations. And THAT'S IT for Azeri oil. At least 20 PSAs were signed, each involving one or several exploration wells and all except Shah-Deniz, a gas field described below, (ACG had been discovered a number of years earlier) came out dry of with insignificant volumes of hydrocarbons and were abandoned. This map, from 2003, shows the whole sorry end to the Caspian oil boom of the 90s. (2) Shah-Deniz It's a big mostly gas field offshore Azerbaijan. Gas was not the best of news for the oil companies, as the markets are very, very far away. The consortium is also led by BP (with Total, Statoil of Norway, TPAO of Turkey and OIEC of Iran) and it has managed to go ahead with the development of the project by signing a contract for the gas with Turkey (although there are doubts about Turkey's need for that gas). BP has agreed to build a gas pipeline in parallel to the BTC oil pipeline to bring the gas to Turkey, as shown above, and they have a contract to sell that gas in Turkey (I'll write more about the "war to bring gas to Turkey" in another story). They are now hoping to build new pipelines from Turkey to central Europe to be able to give more value to that gas. That project is still in its early phase (you can find more details by clicking on this link which refers to its codename: Nabucco (pdf, 280 kb), which includes the map below) but is backed by all the national governments involved and by Gaz de France, so it is likely to go ahead in the near future. (3) Tengiz A big onshore oil field in Kazakhstan - one of the biggest in the world, developped by a consortium led by Chevron (and including ExxonMobil and Lukoil and ENI of Italy), with about 9 billion barrels of recoverable reserves (another ANWR). Although Chevron came in in 1993, they have had a really hard time with that field, as they had no way to export the oil anywhere. They have used amazing ingenuity to sell their oil (including owning most of the railcars of the former Soviet Union during the 90s - about 9,000, to sell their crude by rail, or sending barges all the way to Finland by the canals of Russia) but this has seriously limited the production of the field. Now that the CPC pipeline has been built (see below), they are ramping up production, which is expected to reach 700,000 b/d in a few years. It is the big field on the Eastern shore of the Caspian Sea (inland) on the map below, from Rigzone (4) Kashagan The biggest oil field to be discovered in the world in the past 30 years, it is in the North of the Caspian Sea, in the Kazakh sector (as shown on the map above), and it is being developped by a consortium including all the big majors - ExxonMobil, Shell, Total, ConocoPhillips, ENI and Inpex, with ENI, the Italian group, as the operator (Exxon did not want Shell, Shell did not want Exxon, and ENI was smarter than Total to be voted in...)). BP and BG were initially in but sold their shares in recent years. With 9-15 billion barrels of reserves (exploration is not totally complete), it is yet another ANWR fully in control of BigOil, but it is very, VERY, challenging technically (very high pressures, located in an areas which is at times seawater, ice, mud or any combination in between, and far away from any infrastructure of any kind in an area with a very tough climate) and it will need to find export routes for its production (a combination of CPC and BTC is likely to start with)
(See here for a larger version with full explanations (5) Karachaganak A big, mostly gas field in North Kazakhstan near the border with Russia, it is being developped by ENI, BG, Chevron and Lukoil. As a gas field, it is heavily dependent on Russian gas monopoly Gazprom (the gas is currently being processed at the nearby Orenburg Gazprom plant), but the consortium is strong enough to negotiate decent terms and to buld its own infrastructure. As the field contains both gas and condensates (i.e. good quality oil) which have to be produced together, the consortium has initially focused on selling the oil on the world markets while handing over the gas at a low price to Gazprom. The oil goes into the CPC pipeline. They are currently building a gas processing plant in order to at least be able to produce oil without depending on Gazprom. Pipelines So this bring us to the pipelines. I'll focus here exclusively on the oil pipelines. The gas side here requires a lot more detail and I'll have a go in a later story. There are a number of existing ones, most of which go through Russia and are thus considered by the oil majors - with reason - as unreliable. They have thus made a lot of efforts to find new routes. A simple solution would have been to ship oil to Northern Iran (where Iran's refineries are) and swap it for Iranian oil produced in the south of the country. This made good sense for Iran, which would not have needed to ship its own oil for the production in the South to its refineries in the North, but it is not possible under the current US sanctions regime (ILSA). This solution would be partial anyway as the capacity of the Iranian refineries is no more than 800,000 b/d and they would have needed significant investment to be able to use the Caspian crude qualities. So with Russia and Iran out, this left only the Western (and at a later point Eastern to China) routes. An additional problem is that of the Bosphorus, which already sees a significant volume of oil tanker traffic, which the Turkish authorities were keen to not see increase. Bringing in an additional million barrel per day or two into the Black Sea (on the coast of Georgia for instance) would have created a real danger for Istanbul and this was thus strongly opposed. Thus came to birth the BTC, which goes West from Azerbaijan, through Georgia, and then South through Turkey to the Mediterranean. It was built by a consortium led, again, by BP (which, interestingly, is different from either the ACG consortium and the Shah-Deniz consortium, something which had sometimes unexpected consequences - another story in waiting again). You can find a massive quantity of information on the project starting from here, but the main thing to know is that it has a maximum capacity of 1,000,000 b/d, a good chunk of which will be filled by ACG oil to start with, and by all the liquids Shah-Deniz can produce. It has cost close to 4 billion dollars to build, half of which was financed by international banks with the participation of the World Bank and the EBRD. You've probably heard nasty things about the project because it has been used as a target by a number of NGOs that absolutely want the World Bank to stop financing the energy sector, and they tried to show that such projects were tremendously damaging to the environment and to the local populations. They've put pressure on the World Bank, on the commercial banks and on the oil companies, thankfully to no avail (this is not the topic here, but I do intend to write more about this and explain that "thankfully". In the meantime, you can go see the envirionmental reports on the BTC site linked to above, and otherwise google "Extractive Industries Review" or "Equator Principles"). The other big pipeline in the region is the CPC (Caspian Pipeline Consortium) which, as you can see on the maps above, does go through Russia and does bring oil into the Black Sea. It nevertheless has the particularity of being the only privately owned pipeline on the territory of Russia (something that they really don't like and are trying to undermine at every turn, especially these days as an extension is being discussed). It was built (and paid for) by a consortium led by ChevronTexaco, and currently has a capacity of 450,000 b/d, due to be increased to 1,300,000 b/d. It is used for oil from Tengiz and from Karachaganak. <h3>So, what can be learnt from that?</h3>
![]() Graph by JaP. "kb/j" = thousand barrels per day. "Autres" = other
Again:
There is a lot more to write on the topic; I will write more in the future and would be pleased to provide more info in the comments at your request. |
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A primer on Caspian Energy | 4 comments (4 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
A primer on Caspian Energy | 4 comments (4 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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